Recent and near-future changes in precipitation-extreme indices over the Croatian Adriatic coast

Patarčić, Mirta; Gajić‐Čapka, Marjana; Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić; Branković, Čedo

doi:10.3354/cr01250

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 52 publications

(50 reference statements)

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“…The SNHT test at both stations did not reveal any shift in the mean. The negative trend in precipitation at the station Ričice is consistent with the trends in other parts of Croatia [6,20,66,67]. Thus, most Croatian regions, with the exception of the eastern mainland [6] and some Dalmatian islands [20][21][22], experienced a negative trend.…”

Section: Precipitation Analysis On Annual Scalesupporting

confidence: 80%

Climate Variability and Trends in Imotski, Croatia: An Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation

et al. 2023

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This paper examines the long-term changes in temperature and precipitation in the karst region of Imotski, Croatia, which is of particular interest due to its abundance of karst phenomena. This study analyses temperatures and precipitation on monthly and annual scales at two climatological stations in the region, Imotski and Ričice. Linear regression, the Theil–Sen estimator (β), and the Mann–Kendall test were used to determine the trends and statistical significance. The homogeneity of the data was checked using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), and the F-test and t-test were used to test the significance of the mean shift between the two subseries. Additionally, the coefficient of variability, standardized rainfall anomaly, and precipitation concentration index were employed to analyze the precipitation variability. The study found a statistically significant (p < 0.05) upward trend in the mean (β = 0.0437) and maximum (β = 0.0590) annual air temperature at the Imotski station and the mean (β = 0.0387) annual temperature at the Ričice station. The SNHT test showed a statistically significant (p < 0.05) shift in the mean annual temperatures after 2007 and maximum annual temperatures after 1998 at the Imotski station. Similarly, a statistically significant (p < 0.05) shift in the mean annual temperatures after 2011 and the maximum annual temperatures after 1998 was found at the Ričice station. A seasonal distribution of precipitation is observed at both the Ričice and Imotski stations, with a downward trend (β = −2.7693) at Ričice and an upward trend (β = 6.0575) at Imotski; however, neither trend is statistically significant (p > 0.05). An increase in the intensity of dry periods and the occurrence of extreme events was also noted. The climatological analysis, conducted for the first time in this area, is a crucial step toward understanding local climate patterns and making informed decisions toward sustainable development and adaptation strategies.

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Section: Precipitation Analysis On Annual Scalesupporting

confidence: 80%

Climate Variability and Trends in Imotski, Croatia: An Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation

et al. 2023

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“…The rainfall intervals of 20, 30 and 40 min were especially intense and could be expected once in a more than a thousand, a few hundred and a hundred years, respectively, and correspond to an extraordinarily rare event as computed over the period 1958-2011 (Patarčić et al, 2014). The maximum amounts that fell in the 2 and 4 h intervals could be expected every forty and fifty years, respectively.…”

Section: Extreme Value Analysis Of the Short-term Precipitation Maximamentioning

confidence: 90%

Overview of the first HyMeX special observation period over Croatia

Ivančan-Picek

Tudor

Horvath

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX) is intended to improve the capabilities of predicting high-impact weather events. Within its framework, the aim of the first special observation period (SOP1), 5 September to 6 November 2012, was to study heavy precipitation events and flash floods. Here, we present high-impact weather events over Croatia that occurred during SOP1. Particular attention is given to eight intense observation periods (IOPs), during which high precipitation occurred over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps. During the entire SOP1, the operational model forecasts generally well represented medium intensity precipitation, but heavy precipitation was frequently underestimated by the ALADIN model at an 8 km grid spacing and was overestimated at a higher resolution (2 km grid spacing). During IOP2, intensive rainfall occurred over a wider area around the city of Rijeka in the northern Adriatic. The short-range maximum rainfall totals were the largest ever recorded at the Rijeka station since the beginning of measurements in 1958. The rainfall amounts measured in intervals of 20, 30 and 40 min were exceptional, with return periods that exceeded a thousand, a few hundred and one hundred years, respectively. The operational precipitation forecast using the ALADIN model at an 8 km grid spacing provided guidance regarding the event but underestimated the rainfall intensity. An evaluation of numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the forecast was slightly enhanced by improving the initial conditions through variational data assimilation. The operational non-hydrostatic run at a 2 km grid spacing using a configuration with the ALARO physics package further improved the forecast. This article highlights the need for an intensive observation period in the future over the Adriatic region to validate the simulated mechanisms and improve numerical weather predictions via data assimilation and model improvements in descriptions of microphysics and air-sea interactions.

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“…EURO- (Jacob et al 2020) and MED- (Somot et al 2011, Ruti et al 2016) CORDEX simulations at 0.11° (~ 12 km), which cover the Mediterranean region and the European continent, respectively, were used in a large extent to access climate variability and projections. Moreover, the CORDEX results showed added value and served as input for climate change impact and adaptation studies within the Fifth and Sixth Assessment Report (AR5 and AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and beyond (Patarčić et al 2014, Gajić-Čapka et al 2015, Belušić et al 2018, Belušić Vozila et al 2019. Referring to the Adriatic region, Belušić Vozila et al (2019) have already analyzed the wind field projections using a multi-model ensemble composed of CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) which showed a good performance when compared to the daily observed wind (Belušić et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the near-surface wind field over the Adriatic region: local wind characteristics in the convection-permitting model ensemble

et al. 2023

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We present the first evaluation of the wind field from the CORDEX-FPS ensemble of kilometer-scale simulations, with focus on the Adriatic region. Kilometer-scale climate models, also known as convection-permitting models (CPMs), produce a good representation of small-scale topographic features and consequently a more detailed depiction of dynamical and thermal circulation. These enable a reliable view of climate characteristics of the wind field, especially in coastal regions and over complex terrain, such as the Adriatic. We investigate the (potential) added value introduced by CPMs compared to classical "cumulus-parametrized" regional climate models (RCMs), reanalysis and station observations. For this purpose, wind components at 10 meter level are used at 3-hourly frequency. All simulations cover a 10-year period, extending from 2000 to 2009. In terms of the standard statistical parameters such as correlation coefficient and temporal standard deviation, CPMs are very dependent on their parent RCM performance. However, the orographic forcing emphasizes the potential added value and CPMs contain some fine spatial scale variability (i.e. stronger extremes by 25% and accurate wind direction) that is absent in coarser RCMs and reanalysis. The potential added value is higher in the cold season compared to the warm season due to the proportion of severe wind events. CPMs reproduce well the typical wind regimes along the Adriatic coast, namely Bora and Sirocco. The benefit of using CPMs is especially pronounced in simulating Bora maximum wind speeds in northern Adriatic and Sirocco frequencies in southern Adriatic. Based on our overall analysis, we conclude that CPMs provide added value compared to coarser models, especially in the complex coastal terrain.

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Recent and near-future changes in precipitation-extreme indices over the Croatian Adriatic coast

Cited by 11 publications

References 52 publications

Climate Variability and Trends in Imotski, Croatia: An Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation

Climate Variability and Trends in Imotski, Croatia: An Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation

Overview of the first HyMeX special observation period over Croatia

Evaluation of the near-surface wind field over the Adriatic region: local wind characteristics in the convection-permitting model ensemble

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