Recent Advances in the Emerging Field of Paleotempestology

Muller, Joanne; Collins, Jennifer; Gibson, Samantha M.; Paxton, Leilani D.

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-47594-3_1

Cited by 14 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…Since there are clear relationships in the current climate between ENSO variations and TCs, it is possible that such a relationship could also be observed in paleoclimate data. However, Muller et al (2017) conclude that there does not appear to be a clear association in the various TC basins between periods of enhanced El Niño activity and TC activity that is consistent with current climate relationships (Nott and Forsyth 2012;Haig and Nott 2016). Yan et al (2017a) identified a potential indicator of centennial-scale variations in TC numbers in the western North Pacific in the past millennium, but these variations tend to be inconsistent with written typhoon records from China during this time.…”

Section: Paleoclimate Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…Paleoclimate TC records have been extracted at specific locations for periods up to about 8,000 years ago. Analysis of these data suggests large centennialscale variations in TC activity over the past few thousand years (Liu 2001;Woodruff et al 2012;Donnelly et al 2015;Muller et al 2017) at these locations. Reasons for these variations are not clear.…”

Section: Paleoclimate Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution

Knutson

Camargo

Chan

et al. 2019

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

422

305

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An assessment was made of whether detectable changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identifiable in observations and whether any changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Overall, historical data suggest detectable TC activity changes in some regions associated with TC track changes, while data quality and quantity issues create greater challenges for analyses based on TC intensity and frequency. A number of specific published conclusions (case studies) about possible detectable anthropogenic influence on TCs were assessed using the conventional approach of preferentially avoiding type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection). We conclude there is at least low to medium confidence that the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific is detectable, or highly unusual compared to expected natural variability. Opinion on the author team was divided on whether any observed TC changes demonstrate discernible anthropogenic influence, or whether any other observed changes represent detectable changes. The issue was then reframed by assessing evidence for detectable anthropogenic influence while seeking to reduce the chance of type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection). For this purpose, we used a much weaker “balance of evidence” criterion for assessment. This leads to a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection) but which may be useful for risk assessment. Several examples of these alternative statements, derived using this approach, are presented in the report.

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Section: Paleoclimate Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Paleoclimate Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution

Knutson

Camargo

Chan

et al. 2019

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

422

305

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…For a complete database of paleo-storm reconstructions from marshes and other back-barrier environments please see recent reviews by Oliva et al (2018) and Muller et al (2017).…”

Section: Stratigraphic Evidence Of Storms In Marshesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storm signatures in coastal ponds and marshes over the late Holocene

Castagno¹

2019

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Coastal bays and, specifically, back-barrier tidal basins host productive ecosystems, coastal communities, and critical infrastructure. As sea level continues to rise and tropical cyclones increase in intensity, these coastal systems are increasingly at risk. Developing a sediment budget is imperative to understanding how storm events affect the system's resilience, where net import of sediment indicates growth and resilience against sea level rise, and net export of sediment indicates deterioration. Using high-resolution numerical simulations, we show that intense storms import sediment into a system of bays in Virginia, USA. Duration and magnitude of storm surge are among the most important factors in sediment import, suggesting that intense storms increase the stability of tidal bays by providing the sediment necessary to counteract sea level rise. Since climate models project that tropical cyclones will increase in intensity in coming decades, our results have significant implications for the resilience of tidal bays and the future of coastal communities worldwide.

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“…Clarifying the frequency of tropical cyclones in an era warmer than the present age would provide important information for predicting the frequency of tropical cyclones caused by global warming. Paleotempestology has sought to develop tropical cyclone activities over a large range of time scales, from daily to millennial-scale reconstructions (Muller et al, 2017). The more commonly used archives for past tropical cyclone activities include (1) historical documentary record, such as official histories, gazettes, newspaper, and civilian writings like travel logbooks, diaries, and poems (Fan & Liu, 2008); (2) speleothem (Frappier, 2008;Haig et al, 2014), coral-ring (Hetzinger et al, 2008;Kilbourne et al, 2011), tree ring archives (Miller et al, 2006;Li et al, 2011;Knapp et al, 2016;Trouet, Harley, & Domínguez-Delmás, 2016), and ostracoda (Lane et al, 2017;Lawrence et al, 2008); (3) beach ridges (Forsyth et al, 2010;Nott, 2011;Nott et al, 2009;Nott & Forsyth, 2012); and (4) coastal lacustrine, lagoonal, and marsh overwash deposits (Horton et al, 2009;Williams, 2012;Woodruff et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geochemical and Microstructural Signals in Giant ClamTridacna maximaRecorded Typhoon Events at Okinotori Island, Japan

et al. 2018

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To validate the usability of the giant clam shell as a recorder of short‐term environmental changes such as typhoons, we collected a live Tridacna maxima from Okinotori Island, Japan, on 15 June 2006. Growth increment thickness, stable isotope ratio (δ18Oshell, δ13Cshell), and the barium/calcium ratio (Ba/Ca) in the T. maxima shell sample were measured and compared to Okinotori Island instrumental environmental data. In the outer layer of the shell sample, there were 365 ± 6 growth increments per year, as estimated by the δ18Oshell profile compared with sea surface temperature. The growth increments in the specimen were formed daily, and thus, we can determine the date of the sampling points of δ18Oshell, δ13Cshell and the Ba/Ca ratio by counting growth increments. After typhoon approach, there is a decrease in increment thickness and some disturbed growth increments. The positive peaks in the shell Ba/Ca ratio and δ18Oshell corresponded to lower sea surface temperature caused by typhoons. These results indicated that the microstructural and geochemical record in Tridacna maxima shells could be useful for detecting past typhoon events.

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Recent Advances in the Emerging Field of Paleotempestology

Cited by 14 publications

References 79 publications

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution

Storm signatures in coastal ponds and marshes over the late Holocene

Geochemical and Microstructural Signals in Giant ClamTridacna maximaRecorded Typhoon Events at Okinotori Island, Japan

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