Recent advances in paleoflood hydrology: From new archives to data compilation and analysis

Wilhelm, Bruno; Cánovas, Juan Antonio Ballesteros; Corella, Juan Pablo; Kämpf, Lucas; Swierczynski, Tina; Stoffel, Markus; Støren, Eivind; Toonen, W.H.J.

doi:10.1016/j.wasec.2018.07.001

Cited by 60 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…Flood magnitude and frequency (FMF) analyses are used by industry to estimate the magnitude (design specification for flood protection) and risk (probability of recurrence) of floods. Typically short duration (<50 years) gauging station data underpin most FMF analyses, either directly for single stations or by pooling station series with data from other gauged stations, but neither approach presents a full picture of past flooding (Wilhelm et al, ; Macdonald et al, ; Wilhelm et al, ; Wilhelm et al, ). Incorporating additional extreme events from historical or palaeoflood archives can extend the temporal range of FMF analysis (Wilhelm et al, ; Evin et al, ) if information on both event timing and magnitude can be secured.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Flood magnitude and frequency (FMF) analyses are used by industry to estimate the magnitude (design specification for flood protection) and risk (probability of recurrence) of floods. Typically short duration (<50 years) gauging station data underpin most FMF analyses, either directly for single stations or by pooling station series with data from other gauged stations, but neither approach presents a full picture of past flooding (Wilhelm et al, 2013;Macdonald et al, 2014;Wilhelm et al, 2018a;Wilhelm et al, 2018b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Incorporating additional extreme events from historical or palaeoflood archives can extend the temporal range of FMF analysis (Wilhelm et al, 2018a;Evin et al, 2019) if information on both event timing and magnitude can be secured.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To date sedimentary palaeoflood analyses have focused typically on event timing with limited estimation of event magnitude (e.g. Schillereff et al, 2014;Wilhelm et al, 2018a;Wilhelm et al, 2018b). Whilst flood frequency data are useful for exploring the relationship between flood phasing and other climate indices (Schulte et al, 2015;Schillereff et al, 2016;Wilhelm et al, 2018a;Wilhelm et al, 2018b) without quantification of event magnitude it is challenging to calculate reliable recurrence intervals (NERC, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Using lake sediment archives to improve understanding of flood magnitude and frequency: Recent extreme flooding in northwest UK

Chiverrell

Sear

Warburton

et al. 2019

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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We present the first quantitative reconstruction of palaeofloods using lake sediments for the UK and show that for a large catchment in NW England the cluster of devastating floods from 1990 to present is without precedent in this 558‐year palaeo‐record. Our approach augments conventional flood magnitude and frequency (FMF) analyses with continuous lake sedimentary data to provide a longer‐term perspective on flood magnitude recurrence probabilities. The 2009 flood, the largest in >558 years, had a recurrence interval larger (1:2,200 year) than revealed by conventional flood estimation using shorter duration gauged single station records (1:1,700 year). Flood‐rich periods are non‐stationary in their correlation with climate indices, but the 1990‐2018 cluster is associated with warmer Northern Hemisphere Temperatures and positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Monitored records rarely capture the largest floods and our palaeoflood series shows, for this catchment, such omissions undermine evaluations of future risk. Our approach provides an exemplar of how to derive centennial palaeoflood reconstructions from lakes coupled well with their catchments around the world. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Flood magnitude and frequency (FMF) analyses are used by industry to estimate the magnitude (design specification for flood protection) and risk (probability of recurrence) of floods. Typically short duration (<50 years) gauging station data underpin most FMF analyses, either directly for single stations or by pooling station series with data from other gauged stations, but neither approach presents a full picture of past flooding (Wilhelm et al, 2013;Macdonald et al, 2014;Wilhelm et al, 2018a;Wilhelm et al, 2018b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Using lake sediment archives to improve understanding of flood magnitude and frequency: Recent extreme flooding in northwest UK

Chiverrell

Sear

Warburton

et al. 2019

Earth Surf Processes Landf

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Continuously deposited lacustrine sediments provide an opportunity to go further back in time as lake basins act as efficient sediment traps, archiving glacial and nonglacial processes. Separating and identifying these processes can be challenging because the signature of different processes can be similar depending on common sediment sources, transport distances and paraglacial modifications (Church & Ryder 1972;Ballantyne 2002;van der Bilt et al 2018;Wilhelm et al 2018). In Norway, Xu et al (2015) report on the first detailed investigation of outburst floods from Bl amannsisen using lacustrine sediment from a proglacial lake in northern Norway.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacier outburst floods reconstructed from lake sediments and their implications for Holocene variations of the plateau glacier Folgefonna in western Norway

Røthe

Bakke

Støren

2019

Boreas

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A sudden release of large volumes of water during a glacier outburst flood (GLOF) is a major hazard worldwide. Here, we identify the sedimentary signature of glacial and non‐glacial processes, including GLOFs, based on lacustrine sediments from the distal glacier‐fed Lake Buarvatnet in western Norway. Historically documented GLOFs in 2002 CE and during the 1980s CE are identified in the 210Pb‐ and 14C‐dated sediments. These events have the same sedimentary signature as 12 earlier events throughout the Holocene interpreted to represent previous GLOFs in the catchment. The GLOFs are interpreted to have occurred during periods when the glacier extent was similar to the modern positions, and the events are thus used to pinpoint past positions of the glacier terminus and, hence, the equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs). The results indicate that the glacier Svartenutbreen, located at the eastern part of Folgefonna, had a similar size in 2002 CE as c. 8200–8300 cal. a BP, corresponding to the 8.2 ka event in the North Atlantic region. The regrowth of Sørfonna after the Holocene Thermal Optimum occurred at c. 6900 cal. a BP and Svartenutbreen was at modern size and extent in the periods c. 6400, c. 5450, c. 4850, c. 3850, c. 3550 and c. 1650 cal. a BP. Since 1650 cal. a BP, we infer that the glacier was larger than the 2002 CE glacier extent until 1910 CE when a GLOF occurred. Svartenutbreen has been retreating since 1910 CE, which led to the ice damming of the two historical GLOFs in the 1980s and 2002 CE separated by a glacier advance in the 1990s CE. The findings are discussed and compared to other regional glacier reconstructions in Norway, and emphasize the value of identifying and utilizing GLOFs as an indicator of past ELA variability.

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Himalayan hazard cascades – modern and medieval outburst floods in Pokhara, Nepal

Fischer

Lehnigk

Lützow

et al. 2023

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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In May 2012, a sediment‐laden flood along the Seti Khola (= river) caused 72 fatalities and widespread devastation for > 40 km in Pokhara, Nepal's second largest city. The flood was the terminal phase of a hazard cascade that likely began with a major rock‐slope collapse in the Annapurna Massif upstream, followed by intermittent ponding of meltwater and subsequent outburst flooding. Similar hazard cascades have been reported in other mountain belts, but peak discharges for these events have rarely been quantified. We use two hydrodynamic models to simulate the extent and geomorphic impacts of the 2012 flood and attempt to reconstruct the likely water discharge linked to even larger medieval sediment pulses. The latter are reported to have deposited several cubic kilometres of sediment in the Pokhara Valley. The process behind these sediment pulses is debated. We traced evidence of aggradation along the Seti Khola during field surveys and from RapidEye satellite images. We use two steady‐state flood models, HEC‐RAS and ANUGA, and high‐resolution topographic data, to constrain the initial flood discharge with the lowest mismatch between observed and predicted flood extents. We explore the physically plausible range of simplified flood scenarios, from meteorological (1000 m3 s−1) to cataclysmic outburst floods (600,000 m3 s−1). We find that the 2012 flood most likely had a peak discharge of 3700 m3 s−1 in the upper Seti Khola and attenuated to 500 m3 s−1 when arriving in Pokhara city. Simulations of larger outburst floods produce extensive backwater effects in tributary valleys that match with the locations of upstream‐dipping medieval‐age slackwater sediments in several tributaries of the Seti Khola. Our findings are consistent with the notion that the medieval sediment pulses were linked to outburst floods with peak discharges of >50,000 m3 s−1, though discharge may have been an order of magnitude higher.

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Recent advances in paleoflood hydrology: From new archives to data compilation and analysis

Cited by 60 publications

References 74 publications

Using lake sediment archives to improve understanding of flood magnitude and frequency: Recent extreme flooding in northwest UK

Using lake sediment archives to improve understanding of flood magnitude and frequency: Recent extreme flooding in northwest UK

Glacier outburst floods reconstructed from lake sediments and their implications for Holocene variations of the plateau glacier Folgefonna in western Norway

Himalayan hazard cascades – modern and medieval outburst floods in Pokhara, Nepal

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