Recency-Weighted Statistical Modeling Approach to Attribute Illnesses Caused by 4 Pathogens to Food Sources Using Outbreak Data, United States

Abstract

Foodborne illness source attribution is foundational to a risk-based food safety system. We describe a method for attributing US foodborne illnesses caused by nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica , Escherichia coli O157, Listeria monocytogenes, and Campylobacter to 17 food categories using statistical modeling of outbreak data. This method adjusts for epidemiologic factors associated with outbreak size, down-weights older outbreaks, and estimates credibility intervals. On the basis of 952 reported outbreaks and 32,802 illnesses during 1998–2012, we attribute 77% of foodborne Salmonella illnesses to 7 food categories (seeded vegetables, eggs, chicken, other produce, pork, beef, and fruits), 82% of E. coli O157 illnesses to beef and vegetable row crops, 81% of L. monocytogenes illnesses to fruits and dairy, and 74% of Campylobacter illnesses to dairy and chicken. However, because Campylobacter outbreaks probably overrepresent dairy as a source of nonoutbreak campylobacteriosis, we caution against using these Campylobacter attribution estimates without further adjustment.

Advances in the use of biocontrol applications in preharvest and postharvest environments: A food safety milestone

“…coli O157:H7, L . monocytogenes , Salmonella , and Cyclospora associated with fresh produce (Batz et al, 2021).…”

Temporal changes in the proportion of Salmonella outbreaks associated with 12 food commodity groups in the United States

“…Multiple methods and data types exist to estimate pathogen-specific attribution fractions for various commodities [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16], and many methods use national datasets of foodborne disease outbreaks to attribute observed illnesses to specific commodities implicated in pathogenspecific outbreaks. The advantage of using outbreak data is that the epidemiological evidence collected from outbreak investigations offers a direct linkage between a commodity and human illness.…”

Assessing Salmonella prevalence and complexity through processing using different culture methods

“…Salmonella is a leading foodborne bacterial pathogen in the United States and is responsible for over 1 million illnesses each year ( Scallan et al, 2011 ; Tack et al, 2019 ). A recent report noted that 17% of salmonellosis cases are attributed to chicken ( Batz et al, 2021 ; IFSAC, 2021 ). Salmonella is often a commensal in the gastrointestinal tract ( GIT ) of chickens and mechanical interventions during processing such as scalding, plucking, evisceration, and parts cut-up might contribute to the cross-contamination of Salmonella ( Rouger and Zagorec, 2017 ; Ramirez-Hernandez et al, 2019 ; Vaddu et al, 2021b ; Zeng et al, 2021 ), thus processing facilities could be a potential source of contamination for poultry meat ( Rasschaert et al, 2007 ; Bourassa et al, 2015 ).…”