Rebound Effects in Irrigated Agriculture in Uzbekistan: A Stakeholder-Based Assessment

Abstract

There is wide consensus among scholars and practitioners that improved irrigation technologies increase farm productivity and improve resource use efficiency. However, there is also growing empirical evidence that efficiency improvements in irrigation water use may create rebound effects, i.e., they may trigger changes in farmers’ behavior that partly or fully offset the technical water savings expected under ceteris paribus conditions. In extreme cases, total water consumption may even increase. We studied the impacts of introducing water-saving irrigation technologies in Uzbekistan and used structured stakeholder interviews for an expert-based assessment of potential rebound effects. Our findings contribute to the understanding of impacts of technological and institutional responses to environmental and economic pressures in sustaining water resources. The study demonstrates that although the objective of increasing irrigation efficiency may be achieved, the actual water savings under Uzbek conditions are likely to be reduced due to rebound effects. Unless there are effective policy interventions, we expect rebound effects through an increase in water supply for crops that compensates for current shortages of irrigation water availability, an increase in irrigated area, a switch to more water-intensive crops, and overall economic growth. The findings of this paper provide a reference point for estimating the water-saving potential and for evaluating and adapting policies.

Consideration of the Environment in Water-Energy-Food Nexus Research in the Aral Sea Basin

“…Qualitative research papers investigated issues such as institutional and policy frameworks for water resource management; the interconnections between water, energy, and food systems [46,47]; the challenges and opportunities of managing these resources in the region [12]; and the role of science in addressing environmental misperceptions. Additionally, Martius [48] proposed science-based management strategies for water resources, while Hamidov et al [49] explored equitable governance approaches and stakeholder-based assessments of water-related sustainable development. The quantitative research papers examined the gains and losses of new water developments; assessed water and energy use, carbon emissions, and soil salinity changes in the region [50]; and proposed integrative analytical frameworks and optimization models for planning water, food, and energy systems [16,51].…”

Research and innovation in agricultural water management for a water‐secure world

“…Approaches to AWM research and innovation have traditionally been water-centric and focused at the field and scheme scales (Scheierling et al, 2014(Scheierling et al, , 2016Scheierling & Treguer, 2018;Taguta, Dirwai, et al, 2022). While this proved essential for producing 'more crop per drop' at a local scale, there is potential for trade-offs at larger scales such as landscapes and river basins due to the efficiency paradox (Grafton et al, 2018) or the rebound effect as farmers are tempted to expand their area or by switching to high-value water-intensive crops using the saved water (Hamidov, Kasymov, et al, 2022). Thus, improvements in WP at the field and scheme level have not always translated to system-level benefits and the reallocation of water to other users.…”

Redefining responsible consumption decent work: Insights from the second-hand industry in Uzbekistan

“…Indeed, as highlighted by Vakulchuk et al (2023), research in English about climate change in Central Asia is quite scarce. In addition, studies in English about the SDGs in Central Asia so far have mainly focused on government policy (Erdogan et al, 2021;Huan et al, 2019), gender equality (Millier & Bellamy, 2014), land (Jiang et al, 2022), and water use (Kulmatov et al, 2020;Chen et al, 2022;Hao et al, 2022;Li et al, 2021;Wang et al, 2022;Hamidov et al, 2022). For Uzbekistan, only a few studies are interested in urban settings (Filimonau et al, 2022;Veckalne & Tambovceva, 2023).…”