Reassessing the Impact of Supreme Court Decisions on Public Opinion: Gay Civil Rights Cases

Abstract

The theoretical and empirical debate over the ability of the U.S. Supreme Court to influence public opinion through its decisions is far from settled. Scholars have examined the question using a variety of theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence, but there is no theoretical consensus, nor are the empirical studies without methodological weaknesses. We enter this debate in an attempt to bring some clarity to the theoretical approaches, overcome some of the methodological shortcomings, and bring a yet unstudied issue area, Court decisions on gay civil rights, under scrutiny. We argue that the ability of Court decisions to influence public opinion is a function of the salience of the issue, the political context, and case specific factors at the aggregate level. At the individual level these factors are also relevant, but citizen characteristics must also be taken into consideration. Our analysis of aggregate level and individual level opinion does indeed suggest that Court decisions can influence public opinion. However, the ability of Court decisions to influence public opinion is conditional. Our findings lend support to the legitimation hypothesis and the structural effects model. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings and suggestions for future research.

Backlash or a Positive Response?: Public Opinion of LGB Issues After Obergefell v. Hodges

“…Moreover, we did not find an increase in opposition to other LGB rights issues (such as housing or employment protections). Our findings contrast previous research that did show that public opinion on LGB rights became more negative following the Supreme Court ruling that decriminalized same-sex sex (Lawrence v. Texas) (Engel, 2013;Stoutenborough, Haider-Markel, and Allen, 2006). The difference may reflect the extent to which media coverage following the 2015 marriage ruling was more positive than the coverage following the 2003 sodomy ruling insofar as media coverage plays an important role in shaping how the public responds to Supreme Court decisions (Linos & Twist, 2016).…”

“…This shift may be explained by the fact that there was negative media coverage of the ruling, which included a greater focus on the opinions of those who opposed the ruling, including the dissent by Justice Scalia (HaiderMarkel, 2004;Stoutenborough, Haider-Markel, and Allen, 2006). In addition, scholars argue that the degree to which LGB individuals are sexualized leads to less support of LGB rights (Persily, Egan, and Wallsten, 2006), which may have impacted public opinion following Lawrence v.…”

“…For instance, following Roe v. Wade, which legalized abortion, levels of opposition to abortion rose among Catholics (Franklin and Kosaki, 1989;Johnson and Martin, 1998). Likewise, following the decision that made sodomy laws unconstitutional (Lawrence v. Texas), women and liberals became more likely to support samesex relations (Stoutenborough, Haider-Markel, and Allen, 2006). In addition, following the Iowa Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriage, Democrats were among the groups whose opinions were more likely to become more supportive of same-sex marriage, while other groups, including Republicans and Evangelicals, were among those groups whose opinions did not change or became more negative (Kreitzer, Hamilton and Tolbert, 2014).…”

Does Policy Adoption Change Opinions on Minority Rights? The Effects of Legalizing Same-Sex Marriage

“…There are several conditions to this relationship. For the Court to shape public opinion, citizens must know about the decision, citizens must trust the Court, and citizens must have weak preferences or be willing to change their opinion (Stoutenborough, Haider-Markel, and Allen 2006). T. R. Johnson and Martin (1998) argue that landmark cases provide the best opportunity for a Court decision to shape opinion, however, under certain conditions, a reversal on a previous Court decision may also result in significant shifts in opinion.…”

Dissent, Legitimacy, and Public Support for Court Decisions: Evidence from a Survey-Based Experiment

“…Several studies have demonstrated the number of ways in which courts may influence public opinion and support (see, e.g., Clawson et al , Franklin and Kosaki , Gibson and Caldeira , Grosskopf and Mondak , Hoekstra and Segal , Johnson and Martin , Mondak, , , , Stoutenborough et al ). According to this literature, court decisions, particularly on issues of national interest, may have an impact on public opinion, which can manifest itself either as increased support or increased opposition to the position taken by the court.…”