Realistic forecasting of groundwater level, based on the eigenstructure of aquifer dynamics

Bidwell, Vince J.

doi:10.1016/j.matcom.2005.02.023

Cited by 51 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Ahn and Salas 1997;Ahn 2000;Bidwell 2005;Adamowski and Chan 2011;Shirmohammadi et al 2013). Other studies proposed a multiple linear regression (MLR) model for groundwater level forecasting (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-term forecasting of groundwater levels under conditions of mine-tailings recharge using wavelet ensemble neural network models

et al. 2014

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Several groundwater-level forecasting studies have shown that data-driven models are simpler, faster to develop, and provide more accurate and precise results than physical or numerical-based models. Five data-driven models were examined for the forecasting of groundwater levels as a result of recharge via tailings from an abandoned mine in Quebec, Canada, for lead times of 1 day, 1 week and 1 month. The five models are: a multiple linear regression (MLR); an artificial neural network (ANN); two models that are based on de-noising the model predictors using the wavelet-transform (W-MLR, W-ANN); and a W-ensemble ANN (W-ENN) model. The tailing recharge, total precipitation, and mean air temperature were used as predictors. The ANN models performed better than the MLR models, and both MLR and ANN models performed significantly better after denoising the predictors using wavelet-transforms. Overall, the W-ENN model performed best for each of the three lead times. These results highlight the ability of wavelettransforms to decompose non-stationary data into discrete wavelet-components, highlighting cyclic patterns and trends in the time-series at varying temporal scales, rendering the data readily usable in forecasting. The good performance of the W-ENN model highlights the usefulness of ensemble modeling, which ensures model robustness along with improved reliability by reducing variance. a Original time series b Approximation component at the seventh decomposition level c Approximation component at the ninth decomposition level d Based on the approximation component at the sixth decomposition level 132

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-term forecasting of groundwater levels under conditions of mine-tailings recharge using wavelet ensemble neural network models

et al. 2014

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“…The basis of the analysis was a set of data from the period 1999-2013, which provided over 7,500 observations referring to 27 observation points located in the GDEs. The statistical analysis of those monitoring observations most widely used in monitoring networks (Loaiciga et al 1992;Moon et al 2004;Bidwell 2005;Coppola et al 2005;Krogulec and Zabłocki 2008;Yang et al 2008;Baalousha 2010;Maheswaran and Khosa 2013;Shiri et al 2013) was the basis for identifying the range of seasonal, annual and long-term groundwater level changes. Assessment of the quantitative state of groundwater was carried out using spatial statistical analyses as well as numerical groundwater flow modeling; the GIS-based model, made by using the Visual MODFLOW software package, was employed as a tool, which is commonly used to visualize test results in hydrogeology and ecology (Olivera and Maidment 1999;Gogu et al 2001;Store and Kangas 2001;Babiker et al 2005;Baker et al 2001).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between the environmental and hydrogeological elements characterizing groundwater-dependent ecosystems in central Poland

Krogulec¹,

Zabłocki²

2015

Hydrogeol J

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Results are presented for a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the relationship between hydrogeological and environmental elements characterizing the areas of groundwater-dependent ecosytems (GDEs) located in the Kampinos National Park in central Poland. Statistical analysis was used to assess the seasonal and longterm variability of groundwater conditions. A geographic information system (GIS)-based model enabled the visualization of the test results. Objectification of spatial relationships between hydrogeological and environmental elements was carried out using factor analysis. The statistical analysis of groundwater levels in the period 1999-2013 confirmed the sequence of wet and dry years. The calculation enabled the determination of the range of groundwater-level changes, but no specific trends were observed with respect to these changes. Moreover, the widespread belief that the lowering of the water table in presented GDEs is due to anthropogenic pressure and climate change was not confirmed. The factor analysis showed that GDE areas are characterized by a considerable homogeneity of abiotic elements and locally occurring heterogeneous regions, mainly related to anthropogenic pressure. Dependency between the type of plant community and depth to the water table in the typical GDEs was not defined by the delimiting factors.

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“…These values were then converted to two contributions to streamflow (L s −1 ) by use of two catchment areas: the area A gw contributing to groundwater discharge, which was allowed to vary as a model parameter; and area A ns contributing to near surface drainage, which was set equal to the topographical catchment area of 3.0 ha. The dynamics of vertical water transport through the vadose zone to the groundwater surface is represented by a single, first-order storage (e.g., Bidwell, 2005) with a mean storage time T v .…”

Section: Hydrometric Dynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(A7). The resulting difference equations can be developed by means of z-transforms (e.g., Bidwell, 2005), so that: …”

Section: Appendix a Mathematical Basis Of The Groundwater Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic analysis of groundwater discharge and partial-area contribution to Pukemanga Stream, New Zealand

Bidwell

Stenger

Barkle

2008

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The proportion and origin of groundwater contribution to streamflow from agricultural catchments is relevant to estimation of the effects of nitrate leached from the soil on the quality of surface waters. This study addresses the partitioning of streamflow contributions from near-surface runoff and from groundwater, each with different contributing land area, on a steep pastoral hillslope in a humid climate. The 3 ha headwater catchment of the perennial Pukemanga Stream, in the North Island of New Zealand, was instrumented for continuous observation of climatic data, streamflow and groundwater level. The dynamics of groundwater levels and groundwater contribution to streamflow were analysed by means of a one-parameter, eigenvalue-eigenfunction description of a 1-D aquifer model. Model results for seven years of daily data predict that 36-44% of the topographical catchment contributes groundwater to the stream. The remaining groundwater generated within the catchment contributes to streamflow outside the catchment. Groundwater was calculated to be 58-83% of observed annual streamflow from the topographical catchment. When the smaller groundwater catchment is taken into account, the groundwater contribution to streamflow is 78-93% on a unit area basis. Concurrent hourly data for streamflow and groundwater levels at two sites indicate the dynamic behaviour of a local groundwater system. Groundwater flow dynamics that support the perennial nature of this headwater stream are consistent with the size of the groundwater body, porosity of the subsurface material, and hydraulic conductivity derived from partitioning of streamflow contributions.

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Realistic forecasting of groundwater level, based on the eigenstructure of aquifer dynamics

Cited by 51 publications

References 3 publications

Short-term forecasting of groundwater levels under conditions of mine-tailings recharge using wavelet ensemble neural network models

Short-term forecasting of groundwater levels under conditions of mine-tailings recharge using wavelet ensemble neural network models

Relationship between the environmental and hydrogeological elements characterizing groundwater-dependent ecosystems in central Poland

Dynamic analysis of groundwater discharge and partial-area contribution to Pukemanga Stream, New Zealand

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