Real Time Web Availability of Statistical Models for Water Levels Along the Texas Coastline

Abstract

Water level forecasts are essential to the success of trade and industry in the Gulf of Mexico, but present forecasting methodologies do not provide accurate predictions for the Gulf Coast region. Tide charts produced by harmonic analysis are the existing standard, but these charts only show the effect of astronomical forces acting upon the water. While this proves to be an accurate predictor for most of the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts, water level changes along the Texas Coast are strongly effected by meteorological factors and thus require a modified prediction model, rather than harmonic analysis alone. A web-based tool was created that combines harmonic analysis with multivariate statistical modeling to predict water levels along the Texas Gulf Coast. The result is a substantial improvement on the current model with forecasts available via the World Wide Web.