Real-time weather forecasting in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An application of the RAMS model

Gómez, Igor; Caselles, Vicente; Estrela, María José

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.01.011

Cited by 20 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The R s RAMS-forecasts are based on the results provided by the operational weather forecasting system implemented for the study region [29][30][31][32][33]. This NWP system has simultaneously been run using two versions of the RAMS model [27,28]: RAMS44 and RAMS60, for the winter season of 2010-2011 and the 2011 summer season.…”

Section: Rams Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this regard, RAMS was implemented within an operational forecast environment within this area of study for the winter 2010-2011 and the summer 2011, using the most recent versions of this model, RAMS 4.4 (RAMS44 hereafter) and RAMS 6.0 (RAMS60 hereafter) [29][30][31][32][33]. For these two seasons, this operational system was providing R s forecasts for different locations distributed along the area of study (Figure 1), with a temporal horizon of three consecutive days (today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow) and two daily initializations of the model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seasonal Characterization of Solar Radiation Estimates Obtained from a MSG-SEVIRI-Derived Dataset and a RAMS-Based Operational Forecasting System over the Western Mediterranean Coast

2016

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Solar radiation is a key factor in the Earth's energy balance and it is used as a crucial input parameter in many disciplines such as ecology, agriculture, solar energy and hydrology. Thus, accurate information of the global downward surface shortwave flux integration into the grid is of significant importance. From the different strategies used for grid integration of the surface solar radiation estimates, satellite-derived and numerical weather prediction forecasts are two interesting alternatives. In the current work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the global downward solar radiation forecasts provided by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Downwelling Surface Shortwave Flux (DSSF) product, derived from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Both solar radiation estimates are compared to thirteen ground-based weather station measurements for the winter 2010-2011 and the summer 2011 seasons. For these periods, the most recent versions of RAMS (4.4 and 6.0) were running in parallel within the real-time weather forecasting system implemented over the Valencia Region. The solar radiation performance and accuracy are evaluated for these datasets segmented into two atmospheric conditions (clear and cloudy skies) and two terrain classes (flat and hilly). DSSF shows a very good agreement over the study area. Statistical daily evaluations show that corresponding errors vary between seasons, with absolute bias ranging from´30 to 40 W¨m´2, absolute root mean square errors (RMSE) from 25 to 60 W¨m´2, relative bias ranging from´11% to 7% and relative RMSE from 7% to 22%, depending on the sky condition and the terrain location as well, thus reproducing the observations more faithfully than RAMS, which produces higher errors in comparison to the measurements. In this regard, statistical daily evaluations show absolute bias values varying from´50 to 160 W¨m´2, absolute RMSE from 60 to 240 W¨m´2, relative bias ranging from´30% to 40% and relative RMSE from 10% to 80%, also depending on the daily initialization and the forecast horizon. This bias variability demonstrates that there is a different trend in the deviation of the model results in relation to the observations, both for the DSSF product and RAMS forecasts, and considering the summer and the winter seasons independently. In this regard, although there is an overestimation of the observed solar radiation within the summer months, this magnitude is underestimated during the winter. Finally, comparing this solar radiation estimates for different atmospheric conditions and different terrain classes, the best results are found under clear skies over flat terrain. This result is achieved using both methodologies.

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Section: Rams Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Characterization of Solar Radiation Estimates Obtained from a MSG-SEVIRI-Derived Dataset and a RAMS-Based Operational Forecasting System over the Western Mediterranean Coast

2016

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“…It is well known that mesoscale circulations associated with sea-land breezes are the most common meteorological conditions during the summer months over this area [30][31][32][33][34]. However, atmospheric conditions connected to western synoptic advections are also recognized in this region as they are related to high and extreme temperature situations, especially inland but reaching the coast as well [4,32,33,35,36]. Consequently, warm spells that result in temperatures higher than 40 °C are not unusual for this area [4,7,32,33,35,36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The weather event was simulated using the RAMS model, in its version 6.0 [34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. In relation to the physics schemes, this set-up includes the [43] level 2.5 turbulence parameterization, a full-column two-stream single-band radiation scheme that accounts for clouds and calculates short-wave and long-wave radiation [44], and the cloud and precipitation microphysics scheme from [45], applied in all domains.…”

Section: Rams Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, atmospheric conditions connected to western synoptic advections are also recognized in this region as they are related to high and extreme temperature situations, especially inland but reaching the coast as well [4,32,33,35,36]. Consequently, warm spells that result in temperatures higher than 40 °C are not unusual for this area [4,7,32,33,35,36]. In addition, the region's diversity in orography and in distances to the sea (Figure 1) could result in notable temperature differences, even to the point that temperatures that could be considered usual for some areas within this region would be exceptional for others [4,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Initial Soil Temperature Derived from Remote Sensing and Numerical Weather Prediction Datasets on the Simulation of Extreme Heat Events

et al. 2016

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Extreme heat weather events have received increasing attention and has become of special importance as they can remarkably affect sectors as diverse as public health, energy consumption, water resources, natural biodiversity and agricultural production. In this regard, summer temperatures have become a parameter of essential interest under a framework of a hypothetical increase in the number of intense-heat conditions. Thus, their forecast is a crucial aspect bearing in mind a mitigation of the effects and impacts that these intense-heat situations could produce. The current work tries to reach a better understanding of these sorts of situations that are really common over the Western Mediterranean coast. An extreme heat episode that took place in the Valencia Region in July 2009 is analysed, based on the simulations performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). This event recorded maximum temperatures exceeding 40˝C amply extended over the region besides reaching minimum temperatures up to 25.92˝C. We examine the role of improved skin and soil temperature (ST) initial conditions in the forecast results by means of different modelling and satellite-derived products. The influence of incorporating the Land Surface Temperature (LST) into RAMS is not found to produce a meaningful impact on the simulation results, independently of the resolution of the dataset used in the initial conditions of the model. In contrast, the introduction of the ST in lower levels, not only the skin temperature, has a more marked decisive effect in the simulation. Additionally, we have evaluated the influence of increasing the number of soil levels to spread deeper underground. This sensitivity experiment has revealed that more soil levels do not produce any meaningful impact on the simulation compared to the original one. In any case, RAMS is able to properly capture the observed patterns in those cases where a Western advection is widely extended over the area of study. This region's variability in orography and in distances to the sea promotes the development of sea-breeze circulations, thus producing a convergence of two opposite wind flows, a Western synoptic advection and a sea-breeze circulation. As a result, the RAMS skill in those cases where a sea breeze is well developed depends on the proper location of the boundary and convergence lines of these two flows.

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Wine Journey: A Methodology for Analysing Wine Shipping Route Based on Temperature and Risk

Garafulic,

Mac Cawley

2024

Optimization Under Uncertainty in Sustainable Agriculture and Agrifood Industry

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Real-time weather forecasting in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An application of the RAMS model

Cited by 20 publications

References 27 publications

Seasonal Characterization of Solar Radiation Estimates Obtained from a MSG-SEVIRI-Derived Dataset and a RAMS-Based Operational Forecasting System over the Western Mediterranean Coast

Seasonal Characterization of Solar Radiation Estimates Obtained from a MSG-SEVIRI-Derived Dataset and a RAMS-Based Operational Forecasting System over the Western Mediterranean Coast

Impact of Initial Soil Temperature Derived from Remote Sensing and Numerical Weather Prediction Datasets on the Simulation of Extreme Heat Events

Wine Journey: A Methodology for Analysing Wine Shipping Route Based on Temperature and Risk

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