Real-Time Track Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Using the ARW Model

Abstract

The performance of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model in real-time prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the north Indian Ocean (NIO) at 27-km resolution is evaluated on the basis of 100 forecasts for 17 TCs during 2007-11. The analyses are carried out with respect to 1) basins of formation, 2) straight-moving and recurving TCs, 3) TC intensity at model initialization, and 4) season of occurrence. The impact of high resolution (18 and 9 km) on TC prediction is also studied. Model results at 27-km resolution indicate that the mean track forecast errors (skill with reference to persistence track) over the NIO were found to vary from 113 to 375 km (7%-51%) for a 12-72-h forecast. The model showed a right/eastward and slow bias in TC movement. The model is more skillful in track prediction when initialized at the intensity stage of severe cyclone or greater than at the intensity stage of cyclone or lower. The model is more efficient in predicting landfall location than landfall time. The higher-resolution (18 and 9 km) predictions yield an improvement in mean track error for the NIO Basin by about 4%-10% and 8%-24%, respectively. The 9-km predictions were found to be more accurate for recurving TC track predictions by ;13%-28% and 5%-15% when compared with the 27-and 18-km runs, respectively. The 9-km runs improve the intensity prediction by 15%-40% over the 18-km predictions. This study highlights the capabilities of the operational ARW model over the Indian monsoon region and the continued need for operational forecasts from high-resolution models.

Impact of physical parameterization schemes on track and intensity of severe cyclonic storms in Bay of Bengal

“…Since past few decades, track forecast of cyclones is significantly improved with small improvement in the intensity forecast, particularly, over Atlantic and Pacific basins (Franklin 2005;DeMaria et al 2005;Cangialosi and Franklin 2013), but the forecast (both in terms of track and intensity) has yet to reach desired level of accuracy over Indian Ocean basin. Several simulation studies have been conducted to understand the TCs over the NIO using high-resolution mesoscale models (Pattanayak and Mohanty 2008;Hill and Lackmann 2009;Deshpande et al 2010Deshpande et al , 2012Trivedi et al 2006;Osuri et al 2012Osuri et al , 2013Bhaskar Rao et al 2009;Srinivas et al 2007Srinivas et al , 2010Raju et al 2011;Mukhopadhyay et al 2011;Li and Pu 2008). Bhaskar Hari Prasad (2006, 2007) and Srinivas et al (2007) examined the role of CPS, PBL and MPS on track and intensity of tropical cyclone using MM5.…”

“…Very few studies have focused on simulating the weak intensity storms (Osuri et al 2013;Srinivas et al 2013, Kanase et al 2014), but the detailed reasoning behind the success or failure of physical parameterization is hardly addressed. Further, it is essential to know which factor has more impact on cyclone's intensity.…”

Understanding the Role of Cloud and Convective Processes in Simulating the Weaker Tropical Cyclones over Indian Seas

“…For the past few decades, the track and intensity forecasting of cyclones has significantly improved, particularly over the Atlantic and Pacific basins (FRANKLIN 2005;DEMARIA et al 2005), but the forecasting has not yet reached the desired level of accuracy over the Indian Ocean basin. Several simulation studies have been conducted to study the TCs over the NIO using highresolution mesoscale models (PATTANAYAK and MOH-ANTY 2008;DESHPANDE et al 2010DESHPANDE et al , 2012TRIVEDI et al 2006;OSURI et al 2012, OSURI et al 2013BHASKAR RAO et al 2009;SRINIVAS et al 2007SRINIVAS et al , 2010RAJU et al 2011). These studies are based on evaluating the model performance with respect to the physics sensitivity, resolution, initial conditions and impact of data assimilation on the track and intensity forecast of very severe cyclones.…”

“…These cyclones, due to their slow motion and quasistationary nature, cause very heavy rainfall and in turn large amounts of property damage. Very few studies have focused on simulating the weak intensity storms (OSURI et al 2013;SRINIVAS et al 2013), and detailed analyses of the role of cloud and convective processes have hardly been addressed. Thus, one of the objectives of the present study is to understand which cloud physical schemes perform better in simulating weak cyclones at the near cloud resolving scale and also to determine the dynamical and physical reasons behind such improvement.…”

Study of Weak Intensity Cyclones over Bay of Bengal Using WRF Model

“…These weak cyclones, due to their slow motion and quasi-stationary nature, cause very heavy rainfall and in turn large amount of damage to the property. Very few studies have focused on simulating the weak intensity storms (Osuri et al [11], Srinivas et al [17]), but the detailed evolutions of structural changes in the genesis parameters during development of the storm are hardly addressed.…”