Real-time, interactive website for US-county-level COVID-19 event risk assessment

Chande, Aroon T.; Lee, Seolha; Harris, Mallory; Nguyen, Quan; Beckett, Stephen J.; Hilley, Troy; Andris, Clio; Weitz, Joshua S.

doi:10.1038/s41562-020-01000-9

Cited by 69 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…We also found a restricted number of platforms that are based on the "clinical data type" [60], including, for example, tools to monitor healthcare system capacity [61,62], to forecast different potential outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic based on several parameters [63] (see Figure 4, right), or to assess the risk level of attending events [64].…”

Section: The Case Of Genomic and Clinical Geo-oedvmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Conceptual Model for Geo-Online Exploratory Data Visualization: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Bernasconi

Grandi

2021

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Responding to the recent COVID-19 outbreak, several organizations and private citizens considered the opportunity to design and publish online explanatory data visualization tools for the communication of disease data supported by a spatial dimension. They responded to the need of receiving instant information arising from the broad research community, the public health authorities, and the general public. In addition, the growing maturity of information and mapping technologies, as well as of social networks, has greatly supported the diffusion of web-based dashboards and infographics, blending geographical, graphical, and statistical representation approaches. We propose a broad conceptualization of Web visualization tools for geo-spatial information, exceptionally employed to communicate the current pandemic; to this end, we study a significant number of publicly available platforms that track, visualize, and communicate indicators related to COVID-19. Our methodology is based on (i) a preliminary systematization of actors, data types, providers, and visualization tools, and on (ii) the creation of a rich collection of relevant sites clustered according to significant parameters. Ultimately, the contribution of this work includes a critical analysis of collected evidence and an extensive modeling effort of Geo-Online Exploratory Data Visualization (Geo-OEDV) tools, synthesized in terms of an Entity-Relationship schema. The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak has offered a significant case to study how and how much modern public communication needs spatially related data and effective implementation of tools whose inspection can impact decision-making at different levels. Our resulting model will allow several stakeholders (general users, policy-makers, and researchers/analysts) to gain awareness on the assets of structured online communication and resource owners to direct future development of these important tools.

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Section: The Case Of Genomic and Clinical Geo-oedvmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Conceptual Model for Geo-Online Exploratory Data Visualization: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Bernasconi

Grandi

2021

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“…After estimating the risk levels for all event sizes, participants received veridical feedback about actual risk probabilities. Actual risk values were calculated based on the prevalence of active COVID-19 cases in each participant's county of residence35 . We calculated information prediction error as a measure of misestimation, the average discrepancy between estimated and actual risk values across event sizes6 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Imagining a Personalized Scenario Selectively Increases Perceived Risk of Viral Transmission for Older Adults

Sinclair¹,

Stanley²,

Hakimi³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The COVID-19 pandemic has created a serious and prolonged public-health emergency. Older adults have been at significantly greater risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, and death due to COVID-19; as of February 2021, over 81% of COVID-19-related deaths in the U.S. occurred for people over the age of 65. Converging evidence from around the world suggests that age is the most significant risk factor for severe COVID-19 illness and for the experience of adverse health outcomes. Therefore, effectively communicating health-related risk information requires tailoring interventions to older adults’ needs. Using a novel informational intervention with a nationally-representative sample of 546 U.S. residents, we found that older adults reported increased perceived risk of COVID-19 transmission after imagining a personalized scenario with social consequences. Although older adults tended to forget numerical information over time, the personalized simulations elicited increases in perceived risk that persisted over a 1-3 week delay. Overall, our results bear broad implications for communicating information about health risks to older adults, and suggest new strategies to combat annual influenza outbreaks.

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“…However, the reported daily incidence rate suffers from "ascertainment bias", i.e. because of a lack of testing it underestimates the true incidence by a factor of 5 or 10, although this bias has decreased over time [3]. Multiplying the daily incidence rate per 100,000 by such a factor before dividing by 100 thus provides a rough estimate of p.…”

Section: Methods I Probabilistic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

CovidRiskCalc: An online app to calculate the risk of COVID infection in a gathering

Artzrouni

2020

Preprint

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CovidRiskCalc is an evidence based online app which calculates the risk of COVID-19 infection for a person coming into contact during a specific event/gathering with a group of individuals, some of whom may be infected (available at CovidRiskCalc.eu). The user is helped in providing a rough estimate of the COVID-19 prevalence rate in the group. She also inputs the size of the group, the number (and duration) of her contacts and the level of precautions (masks, social distancing, etc.). The app calculates the user’s risk of transmission in a single infected contact; her probability of infection during the entire event and the number of new infections within the group. Two numerical examples are given. The tool, designed for both professionals and the general public, thus quantifies the risks of infection in special populations (social gatherings, prisons, etc.), but also in general ones (stores, stadiums, etc.).

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Real-time, interactive website for US-county-level COVID-19 event risk assessment

Cited by 69 publications

References 22 publications

A Conceptual Model for Geo-Online Exploratory Data Visualization: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

A Conceptual Model for Geo-Online Exploratory Data Visualization: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Imagining a Personalized Scenario Selectively Increases Perceived Risk of Viral Transmission for Older Adults

CovidRiskCalc: An online app to calculate the risk of COVID infection in a gathering

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