Real-time estimation of hazard for landslides triggered by rainfall

Iiritano, G.; Versace, Pasquale; Sirangelo, B.

doi:10.1007/s002540050303

Cited by 42 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Nearly 1,500 mm during Alleta were not enough to build up the required deep-seated pore pressure. This picture conforms to a conclusion by Corominas and Moya (1999) that only shallow flows are generated in situations without antecedent rain, whereas strong precursory rain leads to deep-seated landslides (see also Iiritano et al 1998).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 66%

New insight into the factors leading to the 1998 flank collapse and lahar disaster at Casita volcano, Nicaragua

2003

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During unusually high rainfall associated with Hurricane Mitch in 1998, a flank collapse leading to a disastrous lahar occurred at Casita volcano, Nicaragua. The lack of a similar failure during a rainfall event of comparable magnitude in 1982 (Tropical Storm Alleta) suggests that additional factors influenced the 1998 collapse. We have investigated the potential contribution of erosional flank undercutting, seismic activity and anthropogenic land-cover change at the collapse site. Except for seismic events prior to Mitch, which may have increased flank instability, none of these factors appears significant. Instead, for failure to occur, the following conditions were required: (1) highly fractured slope material allowing deep and rapid infiltration of meteoric water, (2) a less permeable underlying layer to obstruct drainage, (3) strong, continuous antecedent rainfall to build up high pore-water pressure, and (4) episodic, highintensity precipitation during Mitch to generate recurrent pressure waves. Prerequisite (1) was provided by edificewide deformation towards the south-east, seismic activity and proximity to a prominent fault, and local subsidence. Condition (2) was met by clay-rich layers resulting from hydrothermal alteration. More than 1,900 mm of rain fell in the 6 months prior to Mitch without significant interruption, while intense episodic precipitation occurred during the hurricane, satisfying conditions (3) and (4), respectively. The main difference with Alleta was that it occurred at the beginning of the rainy season and, therefore, without sufficient antecedent rainfall. Anthropogenic activity, including land-cover change, did not affect slope stability (i.e. the hazard). However, vulnerability was generated when two towns were established in the lowlands south of Casita, on top of previous lahar deposits. It was greatly increased when approximately 4 km of forest between the collapse site and the towns were cleared, paving the way for a largely unobstructed debris flow. Deforestation also facilitated erosion along the flanks to provide about 78% of the material contained in the lahar when it destroyed the towns, killing more than 2,500 people.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 66%

New insight into the factors leading to the 1998 flank collapse and lahar disaster at Casita volcano, Nicaragua

2003

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“…The FlaIR model associates landslide triggering conditions with values of a mobility function Y (t), obtained by a convolution integral of the rainfall history R(t) with a suitable transfer function ψ(t), which allows us to model a wide variety of geomorphological contexts, taking into account predisposing conditions generated by antecedent rainfall (Iiritano et al, 1998;Sirangelo et al, 2003).…”

Section: Stochastic Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The literature indicates that common elements, which typically characterize an EWS (e.g., Intrieri et al, 2012Intrieri et al, , 2013Calvello and Piciullo, 2016), are as follows:…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides

Greco

Pagano

2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. To manage natural risks, an increasing effort is being put in the development of early warning systems (EWS), namely, approaches facing catastrophic phenomena by timely forecasting and alarm spreading throughout exposed population. Research efforts aimed at the development and implementation of effective EWS should especially concern the definition and calibration of the interpretative model. This paper analyses the main features characterizing predictive models working in EWS by discussing their aims and their features in terms of model accuracy, evolutionary stage of the phenomenon at which the prediction is carried out and model architecture. Original classification criteria based on these features are developed throughout the paper and shown in their practical implementation through examples of flowlike landslides and earth flows, both of which are characterized by rapid evolution and quite representative of many applications of EWS.

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“…For this reason, Iiritano et al (1998) suggested the introduction of an admissibility field for parameters, rather than single set values.…”

Section: Transfer Functionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Given that MoniFLaIR was realized by using the empirical Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall (FLaIR) model (Sirangelo and Versace 1996;Iiritano et al 1998), an introduction to this model is reported, before giving a description of the early warning system and its performances.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of the MoniFLaIR early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Piedmont region (Italy)

Capparelli

Tiranti

2010

Landslides

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Real-time estimation of hazard for landslides triggered by rainfall

Cited by 42 publications

References 4 publications

New insight into the factors leading to the 1998 flank collapse and lahar disaster at Casita volcano, Nicaragua

New insight into the factors leading to the 1998 flank collapse and lahar disaster at Casita volcano, Nicaragua

Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides

Application of the MoniFLaIR early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Piedmont region (Italy)

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