Real-Time Chronological Hazard Impact Modeling

Abstract

The potential of using ADvanced CIRCulation model (ADCIRC) to assess the time incremented progression of hazard impacts on individual critical facilities has long been recognized but is not well described. As ADCIRC is applied to create granular impact models, the lack of transparency in the methods is problematic. It becomes difficult to evaluate the entire system in situations where modeling integrates different types of data (e.g., hydrodynamic and existing geospatial point data) and involves multiple disciplines and stakeholders. When considering increased interest in combining hydrodynamic models, existing geospatial information, and advanced visualizations it is necessary to increase transparency and identify the pitfalls that arise out of this integration (e.g., the inadequacy of data to support the resolution of proposed outputs). This paper thus describes an all numerical method to accomplish this integration. It provides an overview of the generation of the hydrodynamic model, describes the all numerical method utilized to model hazard impacts, identifies pitfalls that arise from the integration of existing geospatial data with the hydrodynamic model, and describes an approach to developing a credible basis for determining impacts at a granular scale. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implementation of these methods as part of a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Integrated Emergency Management Training Course (IEMC) and identifies the need to further study the effects of integrated models and visualizations on risk perception.

Visualizations Out of Context: Addressing Pitfalls of Real-Time Realistic Hazard Visualizations

“…In an effort to respond to this gap, researchers are employing visualization architectures that allow outputs from simulations such as hydrodynamic models (e.g., ADCIRC, Advanced Circulation Model) and hazard impact modeling (e.g., damage to structures) to be linked directly to realistic 3D hazard visualizations using advanced geographic information systems (GIS) [5]. This allows for rapid visualization of multiple time incremented storm scenarios and creates the potential for the creation of real-time impact forecasting systems that use realistic visualizations as primary outputs.…”

“…This question is provoked by the narrowing distance between modeling, geographic information systems, and advanced visualizations. Advancements in technology make it increasingly possible for modelers to control and update visualizations more directly [5]. This raises a series of related issues that researchers engaged in hazard modeling should consider before deliberately distributing realistic simulation-based 3D hazard visualizations to the public at large (see Table 1):…”

“…Realistic simulation-based visualizations connect realistic 3D virtual contexts (e.g., 3D representations of real places) with predictive models created by scientists [5]. Once the virtual context is created (e.g., using GIS and LiDAR), content represented in that context may be continually updated as the underlying simulation changes [31].…”

“…Visualizations meeting the definition of being realistic and simulation-based have been utilized as part of a recent US Federal Emergency Management Agency Community Specific Integrated Emergency Management Course (FEMA-IEMC) conducted by the Emergency Management Institute and the University of Rhode Island [5]. The Water Institute and Deltares, a Dutch consulting firm, have announced a project to depict model outputs in Louisiana, USA [33].…”

“…Realized applications of simulation-based visualizations emphasize the use of local workshops [16,32]. Processes used in FEMA IEMC, for instance, included multiple meetings with end users as part of developing the basis of impact assessments and damage visualizations [5]. CERI outputs are currently used in local stakeholder processes conducted by Rhode Island Shoreline Change Special Area Management Plan in Rhode Island, USA (Beach SAMP) [34,35].…”