Real Gross Domestic Income, Relative Prices, and Economic Performance Across the Oecd

Macdonald, Ryan

doi:10.1111/j.1475-4991.2010.00399.x

Cited by 12 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 22 publications

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“…By suggesting that changes in terms of trade translate into changes in consumption, this substantiates the idea that the command-basis GDP is more closely associated with the Saudi society's utility curve and more in line with the Kingdom's real private and government consumptions than the real GDP. By regressing real private and government consumptions on real GDP and trading gains over the period 2003-2007, MacDonald (2010 obtains similar results for OECD resource-rich nations, like Norway or Australia. She finds that real consumption advanced more than real production in these countries which have experienced large terms-of-trade improvements.…”

Section: Real Oil Price Saudi Consumption and Domestic Income: A Firs...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Welfare in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Implications for Public Investment Decision-making

Pierru¹,

Matar²

2014

The Energy Journal

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Since real oil price is positively correlated with real consumption and domestic income in Saudi Arabia, a risk premium needs to be considered when assessing the net present value of oil-related public investment projects. For projects generating additional oil exports, this risk premium quantifies the cost of increased dependence on oil revenues. For projects transforming oil into products whose prices are less correlated with the Saudi economy, it quantifies the benefit from reducing the aggregate risk. The value of this risk premium depends on expectations about future consumption and oil price. By considering alternative assumptions, we show that over a one-year horizon this risk premium could range between 1.3% and 5% of the expected oil-related cash flow, with higher premia for longer planning horizons. We discuss the implications of these calculations for energy-related public projects in Saudi Arabia and, more generally, for public decision-making in resource-rich countries.

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Section: Real Oil Price Saudi Consumption and Domestic Income: A Firs...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Welfare in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Implications for Public Investment Decision-making

Pierru¹,

Matar²

2014

The Energy Journal

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GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade

Kaitila

2016

Post-Communist Economies

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There are different academic assessments as to what lies behind Russia's GDP growth: total factor productivity or fixed capital investments. Studies that reconstruct capital stocks for Russia using gross fixed capital formation and the perpetual inventory method tend to lean towards the former answer, while capital services datasets that have recently been made available lean towards the latter. We reconstruct a capital stock series for Russia for 1995-2013, and compare the results to two capital services time series using the Solow growth model. We also take into account terms of trade developments that have lent strong support to the economy. Finally, we use these tools to construct four possible scenarios for Russia's economic growth up until 2030. TiivistelmäTaloustieteellisessä kirjallisuudessa on erilaisia arvioita siitä, onko Venäjän bkt:n kasvun taustalla kokonaistuottavuuden vai kiinteiden investointien kehitys. Tutkimukset, joissa rakennetaan pääomakanta käyttämällä kiinteiden bruttoinvestointien aikasarjoja ja PIM-menetelmää, päätyvät edelliseen selitykseen, kun taas viime aikoina valmistuneet pääomakannan palveluvirtatarkastelut päätyvät jälkimmäiseen selitykseen. Tässä tutkimuksessa rakennetaan Venäjälle pääomakantasarja vuosille 1995-2013 ja verrataan tuloksia kahteen palveluvirtatarkasteluun käyttäen Solowin kasvumallia. Otamme myös huomioon vaihtosuhteen, joka on selvästi tukenut talouskehitystä. Lopuksi laadimme näillä työkaluilla Venäjälle neljä mahdollista tulevaisuuden kasvuskenaariota vuoteen 2030 asti. I thank the participants at seminars in ETLA and BOFIT for their helpful comments. Any remaining errors and omissions are of course my own. Funding by The Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers (TT) Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.

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The Resources Boom and Economic Policy in the Long Run

Sheehan¹,

Gregory²

2013

Australian Economic Review

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Australia's current resources boom has three elements: high terms of trade, strong investment and increased resource exports. For a decade, the net effect has been strongly positive: the boost to incomes and activity from the first two has more than offset the impact of the high Australian dollar. But, both resource investment and the terms of trade will fall in due course and the economy will face a major deflationary shock. A sustained policy response will be needed that recognises the limits of monetary policy and hence involves fiscal stimulus, together with innovative approaches to ensure that infrastructure investment rises rapidly.

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Real Gross Domestic Income, Relative Prices, and Economic Performance Across the Oecd

Cited by 12 publications

References 22 publications

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Welfare in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Implications for Public Investment Decision-making

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Welfare in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Implications for Public Investment Decision-making

GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade

The Resources Boom and Economic Policy in the Long Run

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