Real estate bubbles in China: a tale of two cities

Hui, Eddie C.M.; Liang, Cong; Wang, Ziyou; Song, Bingbing; Gu, Qi

doi:10.1080/01446193.2012.714871

Cited by 18 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 27 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Since then, the lease of land can be purchased for development, living on, or for other purposes, although the land itself cannot be privately owned. As a result, the real estate industry in China has experienced a steady growth alongside the sustained national economic development [1] and become one of the key industries in the national economy [3]. Since 1998, a number of policies in favor of the real estate market were released by the central government and boosted the whole industry.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Estimating Land Development Time Lags in China Using DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Image

Zhang

Wang

2015

Remote Sensing

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The Chinese real estate industry has experienced rapid growth since China's economic reform. Along with a booming industry, a third of purchased lands were left undeveloped in the last decade. Knowledge of real estate development time lags between land being purchased and property being occupied can enable policymakers to produce more effective policies and regulations to guide the real estate industry and sustain economic development and social welfare. This paper presents an innovative method to estimate provincial land development time lags in China using DMSP/OLS NTL imagery and real estate statistical data. The results showed that real estate development time lag was common in China during 2000-2010. More than half of the study sites showed development time lags of three years or longer. An Increment of Developed Pixels (IDP) index was established to outline yearly land development completions in China between 2000 and 2010. A Comprehensive Real Estate Price Index (CREPI) was created to explore the causes of the time lags. A strong and positive correlation was found between the real estate development time lags and CREPI values (with r = 0.619, n = 31, p < 0.0005). The results indicated that the land development time lag during the study period was positively correlated to the activity of the local real estate market, the price trend of land and housing properties, and the local economic situation. The results also proved that with the support of statistical data the

show abstract

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The sustained rapid economic growth of China has fuelled its real estate industry since the 1980s [1,2]. The industry has now entered a period of steady increase after an initial period of rapid growth and has become one of the key industries in the Chinese economy [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Land Development Time Lags in China Using DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Image

Zhang

Wang

2015

Remote Sensing

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Besides, the method considers a dynamic unobservable variable into estimation, which represents bubbles in my case. Some literature, such as Eddie Chi Man Hui, et al (2013) [8] employs the dynamic unobservable variable as house bubbles as well.…”

Section: Methods Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Construction Costs Reflect the True Information in the Real Estate Markets

Ruihu¹

2015

Proceedings of the AASRI International Conference on Industrial Electronics and Applications (2015)

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract-Many academics criticized municipal governments and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) promote land prices to increase. The criticism is based on the assumption that land prices reflect the true information in the land transactions. However, municipal governments and SOEs might be misled by information hidden in land prices. Land prices are a part of construction costs. My contribution was to find out whether construction costs provide misleading information. The methodologies were based on the fixed-effects model and the dynamic model considering cross-section dependence, using the fixed-effects regression and the augmented mean group estimation. By studying the relationships between construction costs and factors affecting construction costs, I found that construction costs do not response to any change in different variables, which are average incomes and real estate investments except the bubbles. Therefore, construction costs deliver misleading information, which violates the assumption, many academic believed.

show abstract

“…And rapid property price growth in Chinese cities also causes the attention and discussion of many scholars. Eddie Chi Man Hui et al (2012) [1] found out explosive bubbles periodically affected Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Wu Yanxia et al (2006) [2] verified the real estate bubbles existing in whole nation, shanghai, and Hainan.…”

Section: Preamblementioning

confidence: 99%

Do House Prices Deliver Misleading Information

Ruihu

2015

Proceedings of the AASRI International Conference on Industrial Electronics and Applications (2015)

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract-Identifying whether housing prices have misled the market or not at present is an important topic in real estate regulation management in China. Many scholars believe that house prices cannot mislead the market, and try to attribute the rapid rise of house prices to factors such as excessive investments and less municipal governments' regulation, which evidently is not completely convincing. The significance of this paper is to give a new scientific answer to the questions above through rigorous empirical analyses. The methodologies for analyzing the relationships between house prices and determinants were based on a fix effects model and a dynamic model considering cross section dependence, using fix effects regression and the augmented mean group (AMG) estimation. The estimation results demonstrate that the average residential house prices do not response to any change in different variables (determinants), which are average incomes, real estate investments and construction costs except the house bubbles. Thus, house prices deliver misleading information, which proves that the scholars' viewpoint is false. Excessive investments from institutions and less regulation from municipal governments might be misled by the false information reflected in the house prices.

show abstract

Real estate bubbles in China: a tale of two cities

Cited by 18 publications

References 27 publications

Estimating Land Development Time Lags in China Using DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Image

Estimating Land Development Time Lags in China Using DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Image

Do Construction Costs Reflect the True Information in the Real Estate Markets

Do House Prices Deliver Misleading Information

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About