Reaching Consensus in the Definition of Photovoltaics Capacity Credit in the USA: A Practical Application of Satellite-Derived Solar Resource Data

Perez, Richard; Taylor, Mike; Hoff, Thomas; Ross, JP

doi:10.1109/jstars.2008.2004362

Cited by 70 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Since the firm capacity requirement is the capacity needed to meet peak load and contingency events, a technology's capacity value is the amount of capacity available during peak load. Whereas conventional generating technologies are assumed to contribute their full nameplate capacity to firm capacity, the capacity values of wind and solar PV technologies tend to decline with increasing market share [12,[22][23][24]. This section describes a reproducible approach to parameterize the relationship between capacity value and market share for solar PV and wind using RLDCs.…”

Section: Capacity Value Of Wind and Solar Pvmentioning

confidence: 99%

A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system

et al. 2017

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In many climate change mitigation scenarios, integrated assessment models of the energy and climate systems rely heavily on renewable energy technologies with variable and uncertain generation, such as wind and solar PV, to achieve substantial decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, these models often include very little temporal resolution and thus have difficulty in representing the integration costs that arise from mismatches between electricity supply and demand. The global integrated assessment model, MESSAGE, has been updated to explicitly model the trade-offs between variable renewable energy (VRE) deployment and its impacts on the electricity system, including the implications for electricity curtailment, backup capacity, and system flexibility. These impacts have been parameterized using a reduced-form approach, which allows VRE integration impacts to be quantified on a regional basis. In addition, thermoelectric technologies were updated to include two modes of operation, baseload and flexible, to better account for the cost, efficiency, and availability penalties associated with flexible operation. In this paper, the modeling approach used in MESSAGE is explained and the implications for VRE deployment in mitigation scenarios are assessed. Three important stylized facts associated with integrating high VRE shares are successfully reproduced by our modeling approach: (1) the significant reduction in the utilization of non-VRE power plants; (2) the diminishing role for traditional baseload generators, such as nuclear and coal, and the transition to more flexible technologies; and (3) the importance of electricity storage and hydrogen electrolysis in facilitating the deployment of VRE.

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Section: Capacity Value Of Wind and Solar Pvmentioning

confidence: 99%

A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system

et al. 2017

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“…For this purpose, persistence models, Markov chains and neural networks can be applied [56][57][58]. These results are also useful to estimate the contribution of PV in the definition of capacity value and capacity credit of renewable energy sources [59][60][61].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Error Assessment of Solar Irradiance Forecasts and AC Power from Energy Conversion Model in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems

et al. 2015

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Availability of effective estimation of the power profiles of photovoltaic systems is essential for studying how to increase the share of intermittent renewable sources in the electricity mix of many countries. For this purpose, weather forecasts, together with historical data of the meteorological quantities, provide fundamental information. The weak point of the forecasts depends on variable sky conditions, when the clouds successively cover and uncover the solar disc. This causes remarkable positive and negative variations in the irradiance pattern measured at the photovoltaic (PV) site location. This paper starts from 1 to 3 days-ahead solar irradiance forecasts available during one year, with a few points for each day. These forecasts are interpolated to obtain more irradiance estimations per day. The estimated irradiance data are used to classify the sky conditions into clear, variable or cloudy. The results are compared with the outcomes of the same classification carried out with the irradiance measured in meteorological stations at two real PV sites. The occurrence of irradiance spikes in "broken cloud" conditions is identified and discussed. From the measured irradiance, the Alternating Current (AC) power injected into the grid at two PV sites is estimated by using a PV energy conversion model. The AC power errors resulting from the PV model with respect to on-site AC power measurements are shown and discussed.

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“…'Capacity credit' is often defined as the share of installed capacity that can be regarded as 'firm', or permanently available (Perez et al 2008, Ensslin et al 2008, Amelin 2009, Keane et al 2011, Sims et al 2011, Madaeni et al 2012. While this metric might be relevant for system operators to estimate the demand for peak generation capacity, it is an incomplete indicator for welfare analysis.…”

Section: B) Implications For Indicators and Multi-sector Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why Wind is Not Coal: On the Economics of Electricity

2014

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-The economics of electricity is shaped by its physics. A well know example is the non-storability of electricity that cause its price to fluctuate widely. More generally, physical constraints cause electricity to be a heterogeneous good along three dimensions -time, space, and lead-time. Consequently, different generation technologies, such as coal and wind power, produce different economic goods that have a different marginal economic value. Welfare maximization or competitiveness analyses that ignore heterogeneity deliver biased estimates. This paper provides an analytical welfare-economic framework that accounts for heterogeneity for unbiased assessments of power generators. The framework offers a rigorous interpretation of commonly used cost indicators such as 'levelized electricity costs' and 'grid parity'. Heterogeneity is relevant for all generators, but especially for variable renewables such as wind and solar power. We propose a definition of 'variability', derive the opportunity costs of variability, and link that concept to the 'integration cost' literature. A literature review shows that variability can reduce the value of wind power by 20-50%. Thus it is crucial that economic analysis accounts for the physics of electricity.

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Reaching Consensus in the Definition of Photovoltaics Capacity Credit in the USA: A Practical Application of Satellite-Derived Solar Resource Data

Cited by 70 publications

References 6 publications

A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system

A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system

Error Assessment of Solar Irradiance Forecasts and AC Power from Energy Conversion Model in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems

Why Wind is Not Coal: On the Economics of Electricity

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