Re-thinking Online Offenders’ SKRAM: Individual Traits and Situational Motivations as Additional Risk Factors for Predicting Cyber Attacks

Abstract

1-Cyber security experts in the U.S. and around the globe assess potential threats to their organizations by evaluating potential attackers' skills, knowledge, resources, access to the target organization and motivation to offend (i.e. SKRAM). Unfortunately, this model fails to incorporate insights regarding online offenders' traits and the conditions surrounding the development of online criminal event. Drawing on contemporary criminological models, we present a theoretical rationale for revising the SKRAM model. The revised model suggests that in addition to the classical SKRAM components, both individual attributes and certain offline and online circumstances fuel cyber attackers' motivation to offend, and increase the probability that a cyber-attack will be launched against an organization. Consistent with our proposed model, and its potential in predicting the occurrence of different types of cyber-dependent crimes against organizations, we propose that Information Technology professionals' efforts to facilitate safe computing environments should design new approaches for collecting indicators regarding attackers' potential threat, and predicting the occurrence and timing of cyber-dependent crimes.

RAND's Scalable Warning and Resilience Model (SWARM): Enhancing Defenders' Predictive Power in Cyberspace

“…The researchers demonstrate that different data sources should be monitored in anticipation of different cyber incidents against different targets and that the most reliable signals are unique to different organizations, thus concluding that the model has to be applied and customized to the unique environment of each organization. 27 Maimon et al (2017) argue that, in addition to using information about attackers' resources, access to the target, skills, knowledge, and motivation to offend, cyber defense teams should draw knowledge from criminological models and use analyses about the attacker's personality traits and demographics, as well as circumstances that influence the offenders' decision to instigate a cyber incident. 28 Sharma et al (2013) focus on human intentions and argue that social, political, economic, and cultural factors in the physical space are often the causes for socially related cyber incidents.…”