Raw metal needs and supply risks for the development of wind energy in Germany until 2050

Abstract

Facilitated by the environmental goals set by the government, wind turbines will be one of the main pillars of the future electricity production in Germany. In this paper, a comprehensive assessment of the future metallic raw material requirements for the development of the German wind energy sector was conducted, which is closely based on the current and future market conditions. Copper and dysprosium are identified as the most critical materials since they face the possibility of supply bottlenecks while being fundamental to the functionality of wind turbines. While the cumulative demand for copper may require 0.2% of the current known reserves, the demand for dysprosium may reach up to 0.6% of the reserve levels. Both metals clearly exceed the allocations for renewable energy technologies in Germany and would face strong competition from other sectors in securing raw materials. Although recycling is able to reduce the bottleneck risks, it does not completely mitigate them. More efforts are therefore required to improve material efficiency by means of alternative turbine designs, efficient production techniques, highly reliable components and material substitution.

Multi-Faceted Analysis of Systematic Risk-Based Wind Energy Investment Decisions in E7 Economies Using Modified Hybrid Modeling with IT2 Fuzzy Sets

“…It was concluded that wind energy companies cannot find new loans when interest rates are high. Moreover, Shammugam et al [6] studied the supply risks for the development of wind energy in Germany until 2050 by using a regression methodology. It was determined that interest rate risks are one of the most significant risks for these projects.…”

“…Besides this, the increasing interest rate will harm the customers and suppliers of the company. This will cause the wind power company to experience difficulties in the supply chain [6].…”

“…Volatility in the exchange rate (C1) [3,5,9] High inflation (C2) [1,10] Interest rate risk (C3) [6,11] Socio-political factors (D2)…”

“…Since the wind is available at all times during the day, it is possible to obtain electricity continuously with the help of wind turbines. In contrast, regarding solar energy, electricity cannot be obtained after sunset [6]. In addition, wind energy does not take up much space like other types of renewable energy, which is one of the important advantages of this energy type.Considering these issues, it can be understood that wind energy investments are very important for the social and economic development of the country.…”

Renewable Energy and Material Supply Risks: a Predictive Analysis Based on An LSTM Model

“…This issue has aroused worldwide concern. For the German wind industry, Shammugam et al (2019) sees copper and dysprosium as the most critical materials for development, both of which clearly exceed Germany's quota for renewable energy technologies and will face stiff competition from other sectors for access to raw materials. In the United States, renewable energy (mainly wind and solar) is particularly constrained by Te and Dy (Nassar et al, 2016).…”