Rational expectations? An explorative study of subjective survival probabilities and lifestyle across Europe

Abstract

Background Subjective survival probabilities (SSPs) are considered relevant in relation to lifestyle as lifestyle improvements may improve health and lower mortality risk.

Factors incorporated into future survival estimation among Europeans

“…Older people also tend to overestimate survival. Other studies found a significant variation in subjective survival probabilities across Europe (Rappange, Brouwer, and Exel 2016). Liu, Tsou, and Hammitt (2007) and Mirowsky (1999), comparing subjective to actuarial survival probabilities, argue that respondents who live with children report higher survival expectations.…”

“…Physical activity is positively associated with subjective survival probabilities, whereas obesity is negatively associated (Rappange, Brouwer, and Exel 2016;Liu, Tsou, and Hammitt 2007). Further, Khwaja, Sloan, and Chung (2007) note that current smokers in the United States are relatively optimistic, whereas people who have never smoked are relatively pessimistic in their survival predictions.…”

“…Liu, Tsou, and Hammitt (2007) and Mirowsky (1999), comparing subjective to actuarial survival probabilities, argue that respondents who live with children report higher survival expectations. Regarding socioeconomic status there is a consensus in the literature that those who are less educated, have lower income, and face financial strain tend to underestimate subjective life expectancy (Arpino, Bordone, and Scherbov 2018;Rappange, Brouwer, and Exel 2016;Liu, Tsou, and Hammitt 2007;Mirowsky 1999;Balia 2014).…”

“…Poor physical health is associated with lower survival expectations (Van Solinge and Henkens 2018; Rappange, Brouwer, and Exel 2016;Liu, Tsou, and Hammitt 2007;Balia 2014;Hurd and McGarry 1995). Other aspects of health, such as cognitive function and mental health, also seem to differentiate the predictive ability of individuals; several researchers (Griffin, Loh, and Hesketh 2013;Elder 2007;Rappange, Brouwer, and Exel 2016;Balia 2014) estimate significant associations between cognitive skills and subjective survival probabilities. Individuals with better education and cognitive skills are also better in predicting their own survival as they can fully incorporate additional information into their judgment (d'Uva, O'Donnell, and van Doorslaer 2017).…”

A short note on measuring subjective life expectancy: survival probabilities versus point estimates

“…The study of subjective life expectancy (SLE) is important in the context of economic choice behaviour [1], predicting mortality [2] and investment in future health [3]. Such individual subjective expectations may contain information not captured by their objective, actuarial counterparts [4].…”