Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species

Abstract

A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time-calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10,000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species.

Local climatic adaptation in a widespread microorganism

“…For instance, Deutsch et al [3] showed that terrestrial ectotherms, which have distributions determined by a narrow thermal variation tolerance, would be highly sensitive to temperature changes. Similarly, Quintero & Wiens [2] found that most locally adapted vertebrate species probably evolve too slowly to overcome the global warming expected in the next century. Finally, many thermal-dependent fitness components varying among populations are correlated with local climatic conditions in diverse species (e.g.…”

“…Among these changes, global warming is expected to be a major source of biome perturbation in the next 100 years. During this period, warming could exceed the range of temperatures that many living organisms can tolerate [1,2], especially in taxa that exhibit low adaptability to temperature change. For instance, Deutsch et al [3] showed that terrestrial ectotherms, which have distributions determined by a narrow thermal variation tolerance, would be highly sensitive to temperature changes.…”

Biology in the Anthropocene: Challenges and insights from young fossil records

“…126 and 128). If restricted to in situ evolution, many tetrapods will not survive projected warming unless rates of adaptation accelerate more than a thousandfold above those observed paleontologically (133).…”

Do missing data influence the accuracy of divergence-time estimation with BEAST?

“…Divergence-time estimation has become a fundamental aspect of phylogenetic analysis, especially since many analyses of character evolution, diversification, and biogeography now utilize (or require) time-calibrated trees (e.g. Ricklefs, 2007;Ree and Smith, 2008;FitzJohn, 2010;Quintero and Wiens, 2013). Therefore, understanding how missing data impact divergencetime estimation is increasingly important and urgent.…”