Rates of increase of antibiotic resistance and ambient temperature in Europe: a cross-national analysis of 28 countries between 2000 and 2016

Abstract

Background The rapid increase of bacterial antibiotic resistance could soon render our most effective method to address infections obsolete. Factors influencing pathogen resistance prevalence in human populations remain poorly described, though temperature is known to contribute to mechanisms of spread. Aim To quantify the role of temperature, spatially and temporally, as a mechanistic modulator of transmission of antibiotic resistant microbes. Methods An ecologic analysis was performed on country-level antibiotic resistance prevalence in three common bacterial pathogens across 28 European countries, collectively representing over 4 million tested isolates. Associations of minimum temperature and other predictors with change in antibiotic resistance rates over 17 years (2000–2016) were evaluated with multivariable models. The effects of predictors on the antibiotic resistance rate change across geographies were quantified. Results During 2000–2016, for Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, European countries with 10°C warmer ambient minimum temperatures compared to others, experienced more rapid resistance increases across all antibiotic classes. Increases ranged between 0.33%/year (95% CI: 0.2 to 0.5) and 1.2%/year (95% CI: 0.4 to 1.9), even after accounting for recognised resistance drivers including antibiotic consumption and population density. For Staphylococcus aureus a decreasing relationship of −0.4%/year (95% CI: −0.7 to 0.0) was found for meticillin resistance, reflecting widespread declines in meticillin-resistant S. aureus across Europe over the study period. Conclusion We found evidence of a long-term effect of ambient minimum temperature on antibiotic resistance rate increases in Europe. Ambient temperature might considerably influence antibiotic resistance growth rates, and explain geographic differences observed in cross-sectional studies. Rising temperatures globally may hasten resistance spread, complicating mitigation efforts.

Prevalence, Risk Factors, and Genetic Characterization of Extended-Spectrum Beta-Lactamase Escherichia coli Isolated From Healthy Pregnant Women in Madagascar

“…These results are robust with respect to center heterogeneity as shown by the sensitivity analysis with logistic mixed models. Even if this correlation has been described previously in Madagascar (Chereau et al, 2015) as well as in other parts of the world (MacFadden et al, 2018;McGough et al, 2020;Wielders et al, 2020), in light of the large number of scientific reports on ESBL-E carriage, the climaterelated risk factor has rarely been reported. This result could be explained by different factors.…”

Fate of antibiotic resistance genes in abandoned swine feedlots in China: seasonal variation

“…In this present study, there were more potential genera hosts on the network of the working swine feedlots than those of the abandoned swine feedlots in the same season. The possible reason for this might be that the HGT level was higher in summer than in winter both in abandoned and working feedlots, as several studies have shown that HGT was highly temperature-dependent [33][34][35][36]. There were also studies showed that higher ambient temperatures favor HGT between bacterial taxa, and transfer frequencies have been linked to specific temperatures [35,[37][38][39].…”

“…The possible reason for this might be that the HGT level was higher in summer than in winter both in abandoned and working feedlots, as several studies have shown that HGT was highly temperature-dependent [33][34][35][36]. There were also studies showed that higher ambient temperatures favor HGT between bacterial taxa, and transfer frequencies have been linked to specific temperatures [35,[37][38][39]. For example, the transformation level of Pseudomonas stutzeri at 12 °C was 0.7% of that at 30 °C [37].…”

Fate of Antibiotic Resistance Genes in Abandoned Swine Feedlots in China: Seasonal Variation

“…The possible reason for this might be that the HGT level was higher in summer than in winter both in abandoned and working feedlots, as several studies have shown that HGT was highly temperature-dependent [33][34][35][36]. There were also studies showed that higher ambient temperatures favor HGT between bacterial taxa, and transfer frequencies have been linked to specific temperatures [35,[37][38][39]. However, this assumption could not serve as a conclusion for sure in the current scenario because HGT level could not be speculated merely based on co-occurrence network analysis.…”