Rapid expansion of glacial lakes caused by climate and glacier retreat in the Central Himalayas

Wang, Weicai; Xiang, Yang; Gao, Yang; Lu, Aigang; Yao, Tandong

doi:10.1002/hyp.10199

Cited by 163 publications

(102 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…In contrast, Zhang et al (2015) attribute the observed increases in lake surface areas since the 1990s across the entire Pamir-Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayas region and the Tibetan Plateau region to enhanced glacier melting. Wang et al (2015) reached similar conclusions in a basin located in the south-central Himalaya. In our opinion, the divergences in the causes leading to the lake surface area variations in central Asia are due to the fact that different types of glacial lakes (described below) have been considered in these studies.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 67%

“…Fujita et al, 2009;Gardelle et al, 2011). Therefore we did not consider the co-registration error because the comparison was not performed pixel by pixel, at the entity level (pond) (Salerno et al, 2012Thakuri et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2015). The LRE is limited by the resolution of the source data.…”

Section: Uncertainty Of Measurementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These main contributions would best explain the causes of lake changes (e.g. Song et al, 2014;Wang et al, 2015;. A valuable opportunity for a fine-scale investigation on climate-driven fluctuations in lake surface area is particularly evident on the south slopes of Mt Everest (Nepal), which is one of the most heavily glacierized parts of the Himalayas (Scherler et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Glacier melting and precipitation trends detected by surface area changes in Himalayan ponds

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Climatic time series for high-elevation Himalayan regions are decidedly scarce. Although glacier shrinkage is now sufficiently well described, the changes in precipitation and temperature at these elevations are less clear. This contribution shows that the surface area variations of unconnected glacial ponds, i.e. ponds not directly connected to glacier ice, but that may have a glacier located in their hydrological basin, can be considered as suitable proxies for detecting past changes in the main hydrological components of the water balance. On the south side of Mt Everest, glacier melt and precipitation have been found to be the main drivers of unconnected pond surface area changes (detected mainly with Landsat imagery). In general, unconnected ponds have decreased significantly by approximately 10 ± 5 % in terms of surface area over the last 50 years

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 67%

Section: Uncertainty Of Measurementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Glacier melting and precipitation trends detected by surface area changes in Himalayan ponds

et al. 2016

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“…Indeed, several authors have documented a net increase in supraglacial pond area over recent decades (e.g. Gardelle et al 2011;Nie et al 2013;Wang et al 2015;Watson et al, 2016). These supraglacial ponds can efficiently absorb and transmit thermal energy to adjacent ice cliffs (Sakai et al, 2000;Miles et al, 2016), and promote cliff calving rates of tens of metres per year (Table 1) (Benn et al, 2001).…”

Section: Accepted M Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ice cliff dynamics in the Everest region of the Central Himalaya

et al. 2017

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The importance of ice cliffs for glacier-scale ablation on debris-covered glaciers is now widely recognised. However, a paucity of data exists to describe the spatio-temporal distribution of ice cliffs. In this study we analysed the position and geometry of 8,229 ice cliffs and 5,582 supraglacial ponds on 14 glaciers in the Everest region between 2000 and 2015. We observed notable ice cliff and pond spatial coincidence. On average across our study glaciers, 77 % of supraglacial pond area was associated with an adjacent ice cliff, and 49 % of ice cliffs featured an adjacent supraglacial pond. The spatial density of ice cliffs was not directly related to glacier velocity, but did peak within zones of active ice. Furthermore, we found that ice cliff density was glacier-specific, temporally variable, and was positively correlated with surface lowering and decreasing debris thickness for individual glaciers. Ice cliffs predominantly had a north-facing (commonly north-westerly) aspect, which was independent of glacier flow direction, thereby signifying a strong solar radiation control on cliff evolution. Independent field observations indicated that cliff morphology was related to aspect, local debris thickness, and presence of a supraglacial pond, and highlighted the importance of surface runnel formation, which acts as a preferential pathway for meltwater and debris fluxes. Overall, by coupling remote sensing and in-situ observations it has been possible to capture local and glacier-scale ice cliff dynamics across 14 glaciers over the past ~15 years, which is necessary if explicit parameterisation of ice cliffs in dynamic glacier models is to be achieved.

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“…Wang et al (2015b) found that glacial lakes in the central Himalaya have expanded significantly (122.1%) from 1976 to 2010, and Schwanghart et al (2016) analyzed hydropower installations in the Himalaya and found that about 257 hydropower plants are exposed to GLOF risk. Allen et al (2016) performed a first-order assessment of GLOF risk across the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (HP), Northern India, including locations where future lakes might form.…”

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confidence: 99%

Three-dimensional hydrodynamic lake simulations of avalanche-generated impulse wave dynamics for potential GLOF scenarios at Lake Palcacocha, Peru

Chisolm

McKinney

2017

Preprint

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Abstract. This paper studies the lake dynamics for avalanche-triggered glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Cordillera Blanca mountain range in Ancash, Peru. As new glacial lakes emerge and existing lakes continue to 10 grow, they pose an increasing risk of GLOFs that can be catastrophic to the communities living downstream. In this work, Lake Palcacocha is used as a case study to analyze the upper watershed processes that typically comprise a GLOF event, specifically the lake dynamics when an avalanche produces a large tsunami-like wave that might overtop and erode the lake-damming moraine. Dynamics of avalanche-generated impulse waves were investigated through three-dimensional hydrodynamic lake simulations of potential GLOF scenarios at Lake Palcacocha, Peru. 15Wave generation from avalanche impact was simulated using two different boundary condition methods.Representation of an avalanche as water flowing into the lake generally resulted in higher peak flows and overtopping volumes than simulating the avalanche impact as mass-momentum inflow at the lake boundary. Three different scenarios of avalanche size were simulated for the current lake conditions, and all resulted in significant overtopping of the lake-damming moraine. The lake model was evaluated for sensitivity to turbulence model and 20 grid resolution, and the uncertainty due to these model parameters is significantly less than that due to avalanche boundary condition characteristics. Although the lake model introduces significant uncertainty, the avalanche portion of the GLOF process chain is the greatest source of uncertainty. To aid in evaluation of hazard mitigation alternatives, two scenarios of lake lowering were investigated. While large avalanches produced significant overtopping waves for all lake-lowering scenarios, simulations suggest that it may be possible to contain waves 25 generated from smaller avalanches if the surface of the lake is lowered.

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Rapid expansion of glacial lakes caused by climate and glacier retreat in the Central Himalayas

Cited by 163 publications

References 57 publications

Glacier melting and precipitation trends detected by surface area changes in Himalayan ponds

Glacier melting and precipitation trends detected by surface area changes in Himalayan ponds

Ice cliff dynamics in the Everest region of the Central Himalaya

Three-dimensional hydrodynamic lake simulations of avalanche-generated impulse wave dynamics for potential GLOF scenarios at Lake Palcacocha, Peru

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