Rapid Emergence and Increasing Risks of Hailstorms: A Potential Threat to Sustainable Agriculture in Northern Bangladesh

Abstract

This study investigates the recent changes in natural hazard prioritizations in northern Bangladesh and presents community-based risk analyses of the various natural hazards that present threats to sustainable agriculture. The study area in northern Bangladesh included two union council areas under the Panchagarh sub-district. Climatological data analysis, a detailed questionnaire survey, and focus group discussions were conducted to assess farmers’ perceptions regarding the shifting and identification of hazards, their seasonal variation, and hazard prioritizations. The SMUG (seriousness, manageability, urgency, and growth) and FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) models were applied for hazard prioritization. Hailstorms were found to be the most prioritized hazard over droughts and flash floods as perceived by the community. The farmers’ perceptions as evaluated through a questionnaire survey also support the findings of the SMUG and FEMA models. This was the first attempt to analyze the potential of hailstorms as a significant hazard in Bangladesh, and GIS maps showed their spatial distribution and temporal frequency across Bangladesh. This newly identified hazard is significantly diminishing farmers’ motivation to continue farming and has the potential to affect sustainable agriculture. The farmers’ perceptions, historical data analysis, use of the two models, institutional approach, hazard risk assessment, and vulnerability to the major sectors show that hailstorms should be considered as an important hazard in northern Bangladesh, and policymakers should pay urgent attention to minimize the threat to sustainable agriculture in northern Bangladesh.

Maintaining Diversity of Integrated Rice and Fish Production Confers Adaptability of Food Systems to Global Change

“…Finally, the fifth shift in the approach to food systems transformations is to build adaptive capacity to cope with evolving challenges and harness opportunities that arise during the implementation period. Substantial environmental change is occurring across South and Southeast Asia, e.g., salinization in the deltas in Vietnam, Myanmar, and Bangladesh (Dastagir, 2015;Minderhoud et al, 2017;Eslami et al, 2019); increasing frequency and severity of already disastrous extreme weather events in Bangladesh (Dastagir, 2015;Raihan et al, 2020); and water scarcity in parts of Myanmar and Cambodia (Chhinh et al, 2014;Boori et al, 2017;Thangrak et al, 2020). RFPPs can help maintain adaptive capacity in the face of environmental change, especially in coastal Bangladesh and Vietnam (Hai et al, 2016;Faruque et al, 2017).…”

“…Adequate nutrition remains a challenge in Bangladesh, particularly in terms of hunger and maternal anemia (ranked fourth and third among the four case study countries, respectively; WHO, 2016; GHI, 2019). Natural disasters and climate change effects are also key challenges, with diverse patterns affecting food production across the country (Dastagir, 2015;Raihan et al, 2020). Scaling of RFPPs with an emphasis on resilience to climate change and accessibility for local consumption could ensure the contribution of rice and fish production to improved nutrition.…”

Determinants of Farmers’ Risk Perceptions of Hailstorms in Northern Bangladesh: Is Adaptive Capacity the Major Concern?

“…Most of the related existing research demonstrates the climatology of thunderstorms and hailstorms [10][11], their causes and consequences [10], and coping strategies [12]. Raihan et al (2020) studied the emergence of hailstorm risk and its potential threats to sustainable agriculture in Bangladesh [13]. Understanding worldwide was found to be inadequate in relation to the community risk analysis of hailstorms, farmers' adaptive capacity, and identification of the determinants of risk perceptions regarding hailstorms.…”

“…The severity of climate change and the increase in EWEs ultimately result in harmful impacts on Bangladesh's largest gross domestic product (GDP) earning sector, that is, the agricultural sector [17]. Rural communities have developed some coping and adaptive strategies for conventional hazards, such as droughts, floods, soil salinity, and cyclones, and the government has a well-established policy to support victims [16], whereas no explicit policy has been established to address the issue of hailstorms [13]. However, for most smallholder farmers in Bangladesh, the successful adoption of different adaptation strategies and the development of adaptive capacity at the individual farmer's level as well as at the community level are very important to lessen their vulnerability and reduce the potential risks of all natural hazards faced [18], with hailstorms no exception.…”

“…but the focus on risk factors for hailstorms is almost nil. Moreover, hailstorms are the most prioritized natural hazard in northern Bangladesh when considering the vulnerability of its sustainable agriculture [13]. Northern Bangladesh is seriously affected by hailstorms, resulting in a significant impact on the agricultural sector and rural livelihoods [27].…”