Rapid decrease of observed mass balance in the Urumqi Glacier No. 1, Tianshan Mountains, central Asia

Zhang, Guofei; Li, Zhongqin; Wang, Wenbin; Wang, Weidong

doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2013.08.035

Cited by 45 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…It has been estimated that glacier retreat has been occurring in more than 82 % of the total glaciers in the region , and since the 1970s, glacier areas have reduced by several percent (about 4.8 %) in the central Tibetan Plateau (Ye et al, 2006) and up to 20 % in the northeastern marginal regions of the Tibetan Plateau (Cao et al, 2010;Pan et al, 2012). In situ stake observations have also confirmed a continuously negative mass balance during the last decade in the region (Yao et al, 2012;Zhang et al, 2014). However, quantitative changes in the glacier ice volume, a key parameter for assessing retreating glaciers' impact on water supply or sea level rise, remain poorly known due to the lack of in situ measurements of glacier thickness through time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Dramatic loss of glacier accumulation area on the Tibetan Plateau revealed by ice core tritium and mercury records

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Two ice cores were retrieved from high elevations ( ∼ 5800 m a.s.l.) at Mt. Nyainqêntanglha and Mt. Geladaindong in the southern and central Tibetan Plateau region. The combined tracer analysis of tritium ( 3 H), 210 Pb and mercury, along with other chemical records, provided multiple lines of evidence supporting that the two coring sites had not received net ice accumulation since at least the 1950s and 1980s, respectively. These results implied an annual ice loss rate of more than several hundred millimeter water equivalent over the past 30-60 years. Both mass balance modeling at the sites and in situ data from the nearby glaciers confirmed a continuously negative mass balance (or mass loss) in the region due to dramatic warming in recent decades. Along with a recent report on Naimona'nyi Glacier in the Himalayas, the findings suggest that the loss of accumulation area of glacier is a possibility from the southern to central Tibetan Plateau at high elevations, probably up to about 5800 m a.s.l. This mass loss raises concerns over the rapid rate of glacier ice loss and associated changes in surface glacier runoff, water availability, and sea levels.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Dramatic loss of glacier accumulation area on the Tibetan Plateau revealed by ice core tritium and mercury records

et al. 2015

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“…Increased precipitation enhances glacier accumulation, and increased temperature enhances glacier ablation. Zhang et al [28] [13]. The remarkable rise in both temperature and precipitation after 1996 indicates a warm-humid climate pattern over the area.…”

Section: The Change In the Mass Balance Of Glaciermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Increased precipitation enhances glacier accumulation, and increased temperature enhances glacier ablation. Zhang et al [28] linked the mass balance of Glacier No. 1 with climatic factors and found that mass balance decrease was controlled mainly by mainly summer temperature.…”

Section: The Change In the Mass Balance Of Glaciermentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Mass Balance of Glacier No. 1 at the Headwaters of the Urumqi River in Relation to Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

Yuan

Hao

Berndtsson

et al. 2016

Water

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Most small glaciers in the world have significantly decreased their volume during the last century, which has caused water shortage problems. Glacier No. 1, at the headwaters of the Urumqi River, Tianshan, China, has been monitored since 1959 and similarly has experienced significant mass and volume losses over the last few decades. Thus, we examined the trend and potential abrupt changes of the mass balance of Glacier No. 1. Principal component analysis and singular value decomposition were used to find significant relations between the mass balance of Glacier No. 1 and Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns using climate indices. It was found that the mass balance of Glacier No. 1 had a significantly decreasing trend corresponding to´14.5 mm/year from 1959 to 2010. A change point was detected in 1997 with 99% confidence level. Two time periods with different mass balances were identified as 1959-1996 and 1997-2010. The mass balance for the first period was´136.4 mm/year and up to´663.9 mm/year for the second period. The mass balance of Glacier No. 1 is positively related to the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA), and negatively related to the East Atlantic Pattern (EA). These relationships are useful in better understanding the interaction between glacier mass balance and climate variability.

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“…The maximum glacier area was 3.28 km 2 , and the minimum glacier area was 0.02 km 2 , with a mean of 0.31 km 2 . The UG1 is a northeast-facing glacier valley that has the longest record of observed data in China and has been cataloged in the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) network (Zhang et al 2014). The drainage area of the UG1 is 3.34 km 2 above the Glacier No.…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying future changes in glacier melt and river runoff in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, China

2016

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Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the water cycle in glacierized basins. Here, the glacier-enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate glacio-hydrological processes and to estimate the potential hydrological changes driven by downscaled future climate projections of five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains, China. The evaluation indices indicated that the model performed well at simulating streamflow during the calibration and validation. The GCM-predicted mean temperature and precipitation both increase. The periods of 1966-1995, 2016-2045 and 2066-2095 were used as the baseline, the near future, and the far future periods, respectively. The results showed different runoff characteristics under various scenarios in the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG1) sub-basin and Urumqi River Basin (URB) due to distinct melt water contributions. In the UG1 sub-basin, the ice melt and glacier melt are expected to reach peak water in the near future and sharply decline in the far future, and the subbasin runoff would gradually decrease under all RCPs. In the URB, the ice melt and glacier melt rapidly decrease but the river runoff remains stable under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, with a slight decrease under RCP 8.5. The grouped glacier area with small size class shows a rapid retreat rate. It was also found that melt water from three grouped glaciers exhibit different responses to future scenarios.

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Rapid decrease of observed mass balance in the Urumqi Glacier No. 1, Tianshan Mountains, central Asia

Cited by 45 publications

References 20 publications

Dramatic loss of glacier accumulation area on the Tibetan Plateau revealed by ice core tritium and mercury records

Dramatic loss of glacier accumulation area on the Tibetan Plateau revealed by ice core tritium and mercury records

The Mass Balance of Glacier No. 1 at the Headwaters of the Urumqi River in Relation to Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

Quantifying future changes in glacier melt and river runoff in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, China

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