Rapid decline and fragmentation of the distribution of an enigmatic small carnivore, the Owston’s Civet, in response to future climate change

Abstract

Indochina is known as one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, with populations of many endangered and/or endemic species dramatically declining due to a range of threats, such as illegal hunting, habitat destruction, and global climate change. Climate change is expected to alter the region's habitat and ecosystem conditions, force contraction of species ranges, and increase the likelihood of local extinctions. Maxent is a widely used modelling approach to predict the species' current potential distribution, project range shifts in response to climate change, and inform conservation planning. Here, we collated known records and built models for both present and future climatically suitable habitat of the Owston's Civet (Chrotogale owstoni), an endangered and poorly studied small carnivore occurring in Vietnam, eastern Laos, and a small part of southern China. Projections of climatically suitable habitat for the civet in most climate change scenarios and timeframes suggest significant habitat loss and fragmentation within its current range as a consequence of upward contraction. We recommend that future conservation efforts for C. owstoni focus on key refugia spreading along the Annamite Range in the border area between Vietnam and Laos. To mitigate climate-related extinction risk, close cooperation between Vietnam and Laos' governmental 3 agencies, research institutions, and non-governmental conservation organizations will play an important role in conserving the remaining habitat of this endangered species. Highlights• Terrestrial mammals have already been negatively affected by climate change at the global scale. However, the threat has not been evaluated for most species in Vietnam and neighbouring countries. • This study assesses the impacts of climate change on the endangered Owston's Civet by modelling its distribution under various climate change scenarios. Our results reveal significant habitat loss and fragmentation across the species distribution range, as it moves up to higher elevations in response to a warming climate. • Remarkably, the number of protected areas with climatically suitable habitat for the species are projected to decline from 21 currently (3 in Laos and 18 in Vietnam) to 13 (3 in Laos, 10 in Vietnam) in future climate change scenarios. • To better protect the species from this threat, future conservation efforts should focus on climatically stable areas situated along the border between Vietnam and Laos. Effective conservation measures to secure the climate refugia and reduce the current level of poaching and habitat loss would therefore require close cooperation between Vietnam and Laos.