Rapid changes in the electrical state of the 1999 Izmit earthquake rupture zone

Honkura, Yoshimori; Oshiman, Naoto; Matsushima, Masaki; Barış, Şerif; Tunçer, Mustafa; Tank, Sabri Bülent; Çelik, Cengiz; Çiftçi, Elif Tolak

doi:10.1038/ncomms3116

Cited by 16 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The undulation has been suggested to reflect the intermittent criticality indicating entering another phase of nucleation to interpret the superposed undulation of the seismic activity as the case of the Loma Prieta Earthquake [7]. Another example concerns rapid change of magnetotelluric impedance (Honkura et al [57]) some half hour before the Izmit earthquake (2000) in Turkey. Eftaxias and his group [8,9] used their VLF radio wave emissions to investigate nucleation stage using their observation evidence of disappearance of the emission just before the main shock.…”

Section: Intermittent Criticalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Field Detection of Microcracks to Define the Nucleation Stage of Earthquake Occurrence

Fujinawa¹,

Noda²,

Takahashi³

et al. 2013

International Journal of Geophysics

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Main shocks of natural earthquakes are known to be accompanied by preshocks which evolve following the modified Ohmori’s law in average over many samples. Individual preshock activity, however, is far less systematic for predictive purposes. On the other hand, the microcracks in laboratory rock experiments are always preceded to final rupture. And, previous investigations of field acoustic emissions showed that the activity increases prominently before and after the main shock. But there is no detection of any phenomena to identify the nucleation stage. Here we show that a special underground electric field measurement could detect microcracks. Pulse-like variations were classified into three groups (A, B, C) by frequency. The B-type is suggested to define the nucleation period: activity increases sharply following the modified Omori’s law before the main shock and there is no activity afterward. The B-type is subgrouped into three types possibly corresponding to crack-rupture modes. The variations are supposed to be induced by crack occurrence through electrokinetic effects in the elastic-porous medium. The detection distance is suggested to be several orders larger than that of the acoustic emission due to the effective smallness of dissipation rate, and the waveform can be used to infer the rupture mode.

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Section: Intermittent Criticalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Field Detection of Microcracks to Define the Nucleation Stage of Earthquake Occurrence

Fujinawa¹,

Noda²,

Takahashi³

et al. 2013

International Journal of Geophysics

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“…Shebalin et al proposed the method of differential probability to test prediction results to determine whether there is statistical significance [30]. Honkura et al used the magnetotelluric (MT) parameter estimation method to analyze rapid changes in the electrical state of the 1999 Izmit earthquake rupture zone [31]. The proposed method finds preseismic changes and this suggests that the transition is associated with foreshocks and slow-slip events before large earthquakes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Detecting Seismic Anomalies in Outgoing Long-Wave Radiation Data

Kong

Glass

2015

IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Observations Remote Sensing

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In this paper, we propose a Geometric Moving Average Martingale (GMAM) method for change detection. There are two components underpinning the method which enable it to reduce false detections. The first is the exponential weighting of observations to obtain the GMAM value and the second is the use of the value for hypothesis testing to determine whether a change has occurred. Extension of the GMAM method to the average GMAM (AG) method has been applied to analyze seismic anomalies within outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data observed by satellites from 2006 to 2013 for the two recent Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes and four comparative study areas: Wenchuan, Puer, Beijing, and Northeastern areas. The Yushu earthquake and Hetian earthquake have also been examined. The experimental results show that the proposed AG method can effectively extract abnormal changes within OLR data and that there are large AG values in the pre and postoccurrence of the earthquakes in these areas, which could be viewed as seismic anomalies, and the AG method has experimentally compared with the deviation method. The experimental results show that the AG method can effectively reflect the change process in OLR data.

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“…In recent years, an increasing amount of research has proved the crucial role of crustal fluids in the occurrence, induction, or triggering of earthquakes, especially when the crust is in a critical state (Hainzl et al 2006;Miller 2013;Moein et al 2023). The flow of fluids within the crust has become a focal point in studying the mechanism behind seismic precursor anomalies and the probability of earthquake occurrence (Honkura et al 2013;Cruz-Atienza et al 2021). The direct consequences of such fluid flow may be the generation of electric anomalies through the electrokinetic effect (Mizutani et al 1976;Fitterman 1978;Dobrovolsky et al 1989;Fenoglio et al 1995;Jouniaux & Pozzi 1995).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Numerical Study of Electrokinetically Generated Pre-Earthquake Geoelectric Fields in Layered Porous Media

Zheng,

Ren,

Ren

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The investigation into the physical mechanisms and behavior of geoelectric fields as potential precursors of earthquakes is a crucial yet challenging task in seismo-electromagnetics. Assuming the electrokinetic effect as a mechanism, we propose a novel numerical modeling algorithm based on the framework of the LAC GRTM to explore the behavior of geoelectric fields in stratified porous media during earthquake preparation. This algorithm incorporates two innovative aspects: (1) employing the Jordan decomposition to address the degeneracy problem encountered in quasi-stationary scenarios, and (2) utilizing digital linear filters for Hankel transforms to conduct the wavenumber integration. The accuracy of the algorithm in computing static displacements in an extremely low porosity half-space model is verified through comparison with analytical solutions. Numerical results from a half-space model demonstrate a strong consistency between the vertical electric field and filtration displacement. Notably, the maximum amplitude of the vertical electric field can reach approximately 2878.8 mV/km, which is detectable by receivers located at considerable distances from the epicenter. In addition, three distinct types of pre-earthquake electric fields are identified: (1) the localized electric field induced by slow P waves, (2) the interface electric responses, and (3) the direct converted electric field from the source. Results from a multi-layer porous model show the significant influence of the water table on the amplitude of the vertical electric field. This can be attributed to the influence of water saturation and permeability on the coefficient that combines the vertical electric field and the vertical filtration displacement.We also analyze the temporal evolution of different fields during earthquake preparation, which demonstrates a robust correlation between the temporal characteristics of pore pressure and that of the vertical electric field. This indicates that the vertical electric field offers an effective means to detect pore pressure evolution during earthquake preparation. Its sensitivity to the strike, rake, and dip angles of potential faults indicates its potential for determining fault geometry related to an impending earthquake. Furthermore, fluctuations in displacements enable a rough estimation of variations in stress and confining pressure. These observations underscore the advantage of integrating geoelectric precursor data with continuous displacement observations to enhance our understanding of earthquake preparation mechanisms.

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Rapid changes in the electrical state of the 1999 Izmit earthquake rupture zone

Cited by 16 publications

References 41 publications

Field Detection of Microcracks to Define the Nucleation Stage of Earthquake Occurrence

Field Detection of Microcracks to Define the Nucleation Stage of Earthquake Occurrence

Detecting Seismic Anomalies in Outgoing Long-Wave Radiation Data

A Numerical Study of Electrokinetically Generated Pre-Earthquake Geoelectric Fields in Layered Porous Media

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