Rapid assessment of fisheries species sensitivity to climate change

Pecl, Gretta T.; Ward, Tim M.; Doubleday, Zoë A.; Clarke, Steven; Day, Jemery; Dixon, Cameron; Frusher, Stewart; Gibbs, Philip; Hobday, Alistair J.; Hutchinson, Neil; Jennings, Sarah; Jones, Keith; Li, Xiaoxu; Spooner, Daniel E.; Stoklosa, Richard

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1284-z

Cited by 91 publications

(98 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Within this context, there is a need to improve the science capability in assessing the future status of fish stocks and ecosystems in order to support the development of policies that minimize damaging impacts and maximize opportunities (Pecl et al, 2014). At present, however, this remains a not completely realized objective and only retrospective analysis of temporal trends can be performed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The use of the highly aggregated indicators, as the MTC, and large spatial scale, as the Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs), could catch general patterns but mask local/regional patterns. On the opposite the analysis at the lowest taxonomic level i.e., the species, even if often allows a more sound ecological interpretation, could be difficult to be aggregated in common patterns, being the responses of each species quite different, with several different factors (e.g., life cycles and fishing effort) that can become relevant (Pecl et al, 2014). The medium-aggregation level here adopted could be optimal to detect the climaterelated effects, while letting a more detailed (e.g., species-specific) analysis as a posteriori interpretation of the results.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Influence of the Spatial Scale on the Fishery Landings-SST Relationship

et al. 2016

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Possible effects of the spatial scale of analysis on the relationship between fishery landings and the water temperature in the Mediterranean Sea have been investigated using the FAO capture database . The analysis was performed by dividing species in three thermal affinity categories: cold, temperate and warm-water species. Results showed significant changes in fishery landings composition during the last four decades, in terms of the relative contribution of cold, temperate and warm-water species to landings; moreover, the presence of a strong influence of water warming in determining the landings temporal pattern has been confirmed. This relationship, however, resulted to be not homogenous across the tested spatial scales (entire Mediterranean basin, three main sub-basins, eight FAO areas). The best models (based on the Akaike Information Criterion), were the ones fitted at the finer spatial definition (i.e., the eight FAO areas) for all the three thermal affinity categories. The recorded relationship showed clear differences in terms of direction, depending on both areas and thermal affinity groups. Cold-water species showed a negative relationship with the increasing water temperature in all the FAO areas, being partially replaced by temperate-water ones, with the exception of the Adriatic and Black Sea (the coldest areas in the Mediterranean basin), where a moderate increase in the water temperature is still favoring the cold affinity group. This kind of results could be useful within the context of the management plans definition, within a context of climate changes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of the Spatial Scale on the Fishery Landings-SST Relationship

et al. 2016

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“…The framework allows for scaling up of the human vulnerability analysis to allow integration with change information available for the ecological system. The level of environmental exposure combined with the biological sensitivity of different marine species determines the ecological vulnerability in the ecological subsystem (Pecl, Ward, et al, 2014). The ecological vulnerability, in turn, has a direct influence on the socio-economic subsystem.…”

Section: An Improved Integrated Vulnerability Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ecological vulnerability, in turn, has a direct influence on the socio-economic subsystem. For instance, a crustacean species may be biologically very sensitive to warming ocean temperatures (see, for instance, Pecl, Ward, et al, 2014) and at its biological limit in a particular fastwarming hotspot (thus making it ecologically vulnerable).…”

Section: An Improved Integrated Vulnerability Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated framework for assessing coastal community vulnerability across cultures, oceans and scales

Aswani

Howard

Gasalla

et al. 2018

Climate and Development

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Coastal communities are some of the most at-risk populations with respect to climate change impacts. It is therefore important to determine the vulnerability of such communities to co-develop viable adaptation options. Global efforts to address this issue include international scientific projects, such as Global Learning for Local Solutions (GULLS), which focuses on five fast warming regions of the southern hemisphere and aims to provide an understanding of the local scale processes influencing community vulnerability that can then be up-scaled to regional, country and global levels. This paper describes the development of a new social and ecological vulnerability framework which integrates exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity with the social livelihoods and food security approaches. It also measures community flexibility to understand better the adaptive capacity of different levels of community organization. The translation of the conceptual framework to an implementable method is described and its application in a number of "hotspot" countries, where ocean waters are warming faster than the rest of the world, is presented. Opportunities for cross-cultural comparisons to uncover similarities and differences in vulnerability and adaptation patterns among the study's coastal communities, which can provide accelerated learning mechanisms to other coastal regions, are highlighted. The social and ecological framework and the associated survey approach allow for future integration of local-level vulnerability data with ecological and oceanographic models.

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“…Acidification and storms and cyclone metrics calculated using expert opinion of the authors (physical oceanography expertise) where 2 = worst impact, 1 = medium impact, 0 = low impact. Biological sensitivity data were taken from Pecl et al (2014), and Caputi et al (2014a), and Welch et al (2014) which followed a similar format. These studies screened key wild capture fishery and aquaculture species to indicate the risks they may face because Ecology and Society 20(2): 35 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss2/art35/ Table 4.…”

Section: Exposure Sensitivity and Ecological Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring the vulnerability of marine social-ecological systems: a prerequisite for the identification of climate change adaptations

Metcalf¹,

Putten²,

Frusher³

et al. 2015

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities to marine climate change requires that communities have some intrinsic capacity to adapt. To assist adaptation planning and the implementation of adaptation strategies, identifying barriers and enablers to adaptation is important. Adaptive capacity, resource dependence, local climate change exposure and biological sensitivity were used to assess socioeconomic vulnerability to climate change in three Australian coastal communities: St Helens, Tasmania; Bowen, Queensland; and Geraldton, Western Australia. Higher adaptive capacity was associated with larger population size (i.e., Geraldton) whereas greater resource dependence, and lower human and natural capital were associated with smaller populations (St Helens and Bowen). Socioeconomic vulnerability was greatly influenced by climate exposure and sensitivity with the moderately sized Bowen having the highest socioeconomic vulnerability to climate change. Adaptation strategies that utilized available assets, improved adaptive capacity, or reduced socioeconomic vulnerability were identified in partnership with local communities, including increased and diversified employment opportunities, the re-establishment of local fish markets, and improved education and communication. The level of resources, or "capitals," available to communities can indicate where barriers and enablers to adaptation exist. Identified barriers to adaptation included a heavy reliance on one sector for employment and a lack of physical capital. We demonstrate that knowledge of intrinsic community characteristics can be beneficial for prioritizing adaptation actions to reduce socioeconomic vulnerability to marine climate change.

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Rapid assessment of fisheries species sensitivity to climate change

Cited by 91 publications

References 31 publications

The Influence of the Spatial Scale on the Fishery Landings-SST Relationship

The Influence of the Spatial Scale on the Fishery Landings-SST Relationship

An integrated framework for assessing coastal community vulnerability across cultures, oceans and scales

Measuring the vulnerability of marine social-ecological systems: a prerequisite for the identification of climate change adaptations

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