Ranking of Tornado Outbreaks across the United States and Their Climatological Characteristics

Fuhrmann, Christopher M.; Konrad, Charles E.; Kovach, Margaret M.; McLeod, Jordan T.; Schmitz, William G.; Dixon, Paul

doi:10.1175/waf-d-13-00128.1

Cited by 53 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 28 publications

(62 reference statements)

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“…This shows that 72% of the soundings used occurred within 3 h of the observed sounding time. Fuhrmann et al (2014) noted there had been a substantial decrease in the number of significant and violent tornadoes coincident with a shift in responsibility for reporting tornadoes from the state Hampshire et al NWA Journal of Operational Meteorology 7 February 2018 climatologists to the National Weather Service in 1973. Therefore, 1973 was chosen as the start date for this study to limit the influence of over-reported significant and violent tornadoes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship of Low-Level Instability and Tornado Damage Rating Based on Observed Soundings

Hampshire¹,

Mosier²,

Ryan³

et al. 2018

J. Operational Meteor.

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A database of upper-air soundings was collected for weak (EF0/EF1), significant (EF2/EF3), and violent (EF4/ EF5) tornadoes that occurred within 100 km and 6 h of the rawindsonde observation. After case filtering and quality control, a total of 50 proximity soundings for violent tornadoes and randomized samples of 100 proximity soundings for significant tornadoes and 102 for weak tornadoes were obtained. Key convective parameters were analyzed between the tornado datasets. Low-level instability parameters (0-3-km lapse rates and 0-3-km mixed-layer convective available potential energy) were noteworthy predictors of the highest tornado damage rating, whereas mixed-layer lifted condensation level, wind shear, and effective storm relative helicity displayed little predictive skill distinguishing significant and violent tornado environments. The ability of the significant tornado parameter (STP) to discriminate between significant and violent tornadoes also was analyzed. This analysis found that STP does statistically discriminate between violent and significant tornadoes, with mixedlayer convective available potential energy the best discriminator of its variables. Because of the skill in the lowlevel instability parameters, this study also offers a new violent tornado parameter that includes the low-level instability fields in order to better differentiate between significant and violent tornado environments. ABSTRACT (Manuscript

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship of Low-Level Instability and Tornado Damage Rating Based on Observed Soundings

Hampshire¹,

Mosier²,

Ryan³

et al. 2018

J. Operational Meteor.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Time of year was an important factor-although mean lead time was high and most tornadoes were warned in the spring, mean lead time was relatively poor in the summer and fall, and many fall tornadoes with TDSs were not warned (Table 3). This is likely because multi-tornado outbreaks in favorable environments and supercell storms occur most often in the spring (e.g., Smith et al 2012;Fuhrmann et al 2014).…”

Section: B Associations Between Tornado Warnings and Tdssmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Tornado Warning Improvement Resulting from Utilization of the TDS in the Warning Decision Process

Broeke¹

2017

J. Operational Meteor.

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Polarimetric tornadic debris signatures (TDSs) provide a means of confirming that a strong wind field has lofted debris to the altitude of the radar beam. They can increase confidence in an ongoing tornado, which may be noted in tornado warning text to increase the sense of urgency. They may also serve as indicators of weak tornadoes that may otherwise go unwarned. Polarimetric data have been available since 2012 on a large portion of the U.S. Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network and since May 2013 for the entire network. It is anticipated that use of the polarimetric TDS in the tornado warning process should evolve through time. Thus, this paper presents an overview of how the TDS was used in the warning process during the 16 months when widespread polarimetric data were first becoming available (February 2012-May 2013). During this period, 22.5% of tornado warning texts for TDS-producing events mentioned the TDS. It is estimated that utilization of the TDS in the warning decision process could result in ~45 previously unwarned tornadoes being warned annually, and in ~65 tornado warnings being issued with a less negative lead time.Examples are shown that demonstrate potential operational usefulness of the TDS. ABSTRACT (Manuscript

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“…Due to the favorable topographic and meteorological conditions conducive to tornadoes of all types, but especially to supercell tornadoes, the United States experiences the most tornadoes of any country [Brooks et al, 1994;Brooks et al, 2003b;Elsner et al, 2014a]. Given the devastating impact of tornadoes on society, concern has arisen regarding changes in the climatology of U.S. tornadoes (including frequency, intensity, variability, seasonality, and geography) in recent decades [e.g., Tippett et al, 2012;Brooks et al, 2014;Elsner et al, 2014b;Elsner et al, 2015;Farney and Dixon, 2014;Fuhrmann et al, 2014;Long and Stoy, 2014;Trapp, 2014;Lu et al, 2015].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, Brooks et al [2014] did not consider the highly regionalized tornado climatology across the U.S., which has been fully recognized by a body of works [e.g., Brooks et al, 2003aBrooks et al, , 2003bDixon et al, 2011Dixon et al, , 2014Farney and Dixon, 2014;Coleman and Dixon, 2014;Fuhrmann et al, 2014]. Thus, given that the nationwide tornado temporal variability has increased over time, one may ask (1) what geographical regions are most responsible and (2) can such a nationwide tornado variability, without regard to the spatial heterogeneity of tornado climatology, represent the actual tornado variability on a more regional scale?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of tornado occurrence over the continental United States since 1950

2016

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The United States experiences the most tornadoes of any country in the world. Given the catastrophic impact of tornadoes, concern has arisen regarding the variation in climatology of U.S. tornadoes under the changing climate. A recent study claimed that the temporal variability of tornado occurrence over the continental U.S. has increased since the 1970s. However, that study ignored the highly regionalized climatology of U.S. tornadoes. To address this issue, we examined the long-term trend of tornado temporal variability in each continental U.S. state. Based on the 64 year tornado records , we found that the trends in tornado temporal variability varied across the U.S., with only one third of the continental area or three out of 10 contiguous states (mostly from the Great Plains and Southeast, but where the frequency of occurrence of tornadoes is greater) displaying a significantly increasing trend. The other two-thirds area, where 60% of the U.S. tornadoes were reported (but the frequency of occurrence of tornadoes is less), however, showed a decreasing or a near-zero trend in tornado temporal variability. Furthermore, unlike the temporal variability alone, the combined spatial-temporal variability of U.S. tornado occurrence has remained nearly constant since 1950. Such detailed information on the climatological variability of U.S. tornadoes refines the claim of previous study and can be helpful for local mitigation efforts toward future tornado risks.

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Ranking of Tornado Outbreaks across the United States and Their Climatological Characteristics

Cited by 53 publications

References 28 publications

Relationship of Low-Level Instability and Tornado Damage Rating Based on Observed Soundings

Relationship of Low-Level Instability and Tornado Damage Rating Based on Observed Soundings

Potential Tornado Warning Improvement Resulting from Utilization of the TDS in the Warning Decision Process

Variability of tornado occurrence over the continental United States since 1950

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