Rank-based deep learning from citizen-science data to model plant communities

Abstract

In the age of big data, scientific progress is fundamentally limited by our capacity to extract critical information. We show that recasting multispecies distribution modeling as a ranking problem allows analyzing ubiquitous citizen-science observations with unprecedented efficiency. Based on 6.7M observations, we jointly modeled the distributions of 2477 plant species and species aggregates across Switzerland, using deep neural networks (DNNs). Compared to commonly-used approaches, multispecies DNNs predicted species distributions and especially community composition more accurately. Moreover, their setup allowed investigating understudied aspects of ecology: including seasonal variations of observation probability explicitly allowed approximating flowering phenology, especially for small, herbaceous species; reweighting predictions to mirror cover-abundance allowed mapping potentially canopy-dominant tree species nationwide; and projecting DNNs into the future allowed assessing how distributions, phenology, and dominance may change. Given their skill and their versatility, multispecies DNNs can refine our understanding of the distribution of plants and well-sampled taxa in general.