RangeShiftR: an R package for individual‐based simulation of spatial eco‐evolutionary dynamics and species' responses to environmental changes

Malchow, Anne‐Kathleen; Bocedi, Greta; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Travis, Justin M. J.; Zurell, Damaris

doi:10.1111/ecog.05689

Cited by 15 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(63 reference statements)

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“…We expect that our approach can also be applied to different species inhabiting dynamic landscapes, especially for long-lived species with limited movement ability, and to be integrated into management plans (Stillman et al 2015). This calls for a new research directions based on the development of more general tools that adapt to different species, such as new platforms for individual-based simulations to study species' responses to environmental changes (Bocedi et al 2021;Malchow et al 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Problems seeded in the past: lagged effects of historical land-use changes can cause an extinction debt in long-lived species due to movement limitation

et al. 2022

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Context Land-use change is one of the main threats to biodiversity on the global scale. Legacy effects of historical land-use changes may affect population dynamics of long-lived species, but they are difficult to evaluate through observational studies alone. We present here an interdisciplinary modelling approach as an alternative to address this problem in landscape ecology. Objectives Assess effects of agricultural abandonment and anthropisation on the population dynamics of long-lived species. Specifically, we evaluated: (a) how changes in movement patterns caused by land-use change might impact population dynamics; (b) time-lag responses of demographic variables in relation to land-use changes. Methods We applied an individual-based and spatial-explicit simulation model of the spur-tighed tortoise (Testudo graeca), an endangered species, to sequences of real-world landscape changes representing agricultural abandonment and anthropisation at the local scale. We analysed different demographic variables and compared an “impact scenario” (i.e., historical land-use changes) with a “control scenario” (no land-use changes). Results While agricultural abandonment did not lead to relevant changes in demographic variables, anthropisation negatively affected the reproductive rate, population density and the extinction probability with time-lag responses of 20, 30 and 130 years, respectively, and caused an extinction debt of 22%. Conclusions We provide an understanding of how changes in animal movement driven by land-use changes can translate into lagged impacts on demography and, ultimately, on population viability. Implementation of proactive mitigation management are needed to promote landscape connectivity, especially for long-lived species for which first signatures of an extinction debt may arise only after decades.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Problems seeded in the past: lagged effects of historical land-use changes can cause an extinction debt in long-lived species due to movement limitation

et al. 2022

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“…The derived habitat maps at a resolution of 1 km were then used within the RangeShiftR IBM [33] to simulate the population and dispersal dynamics of each species on a regularly gridded landscape The modelled fecundity ρ includes all contributions to juvenile survival that occur before the juveniles are independent. Therefore, also nestling mortality or early juvenile mortality are included in ρ.…”

Section: Model Building and Fittingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

Malchow

Härtig

Reeg

et al. 2022

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Species responses to climate change are widely detected as range and abundance changes. To better explain and predict them, we need a mechanistic understanding of how the underlying demographic processes are shaped by climatic conditions. We built spatially-explicit, process-based models for eight Swiss breeding bird populations. They jointly consider dispersal, population dynamics and the climate-dependence of three demographic processes - juvenile survival, adult survival and fecundity. The models were calibrated to two-decade abundance time-series in a Bayesian framework. We assessed goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power of the models with different metrics, indicating fair to excellent model fit. The most influential climatic predictors for population performance were the mean breeding-season temperature and the total winter precipitation. Maps of overall growth rate highlighted demographically suitable areas. Further, benefits from contemporary climate change were detected for typical mountain birds, whereas lowland birds were adversely affected. Embedding generic process-based models in a solid statistical framework improves our mechanistic understanding of range dynamics and allows disentangling the underlying abiotic and biotic processes. For future research, we advocate a stronger integration of experimental and empirical measurements and more detailed predictors in order to generate precise insights into the processes by which climate affects populations.

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“…Still, several models can already use real-world environmental data as input (e.g. Hagen et al, 2021;Higgins et al, 2020;Malchow et al, 2021;McIntyre & Lavorel, 2007;Sarmento Cabral et al, 2013), which should promote their application for addressing landuse effects. Indeed, biodiversity models including land use vary from hypothetical virtual experiments to real-world applications across regional scales (Table 2).…”

Section: Modelling Regional Biodiversity Changementioning

confidence: 99%

The road to integrate climate change effects on land-use change in regional biodiversity models

Cabral

Mendoza‐Ponce

Silva

et al. 2022

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1. Current modelling approaches to predict spatially explicit biodiversity responses to climate change mainly focus on the direct effects of climate on species. Integration of spatiotemporal land-cover scenarios is still limited. Current approaches either regard land cover as constant boundary conditions, or rely on general, typically globally defined land-use scenarios. This is problematic as it disregards the complex synergistic effects of climate and land use on biodiversity at the regional scale, as biophysical, economic, and social issues important for regional land-use decisions are also affected by climate change. To realistically predict climate impacts on biodiversity, it is therefore necessary to consider both, the direct effect of climate change on biodiversity, and its indirect effect on biodiversity via land-use change. 2. In this review and perspective paper, we outline how biodiversity models could be better integrated with regional, climate-driven land-use models. We provide an overview of empirical and modelling approaches to both land-use (LU) and biodiversity (BD) change, focusing on how integration has been attempted. We then analyse how LU and BD model properties, such as scales, inputs, and outputs, can be matched and identify potential integration challenges and opportunities. 3. We found LU integration in BD models has been frequently attempted. By contrast, integrating the role of BD in models of LU decisions is largely lacking. As a result, bi-directional effects remain largely understudied. Only few integrated LU-BD socio-ecological models have assessed climate change effects on LU and no study has yet investigated the relative contribution of direct vs. indirect effects of climate change on BD. 4. There is a large potential for model integration given the overlap on spatial scales, although challenges remain with respect to spatial scale, temporal dynamics, investigation of indirect effects, and bi-directionality, including feeding back to climate models. Efforts to better understand human decisions, eco-evolutionary dynamics, connection between terrestrial and aquatic systems, and format standardization of modelling outputs and empirical data should improve future models. Integrating biodiversity feedbacks into land-use and climate models requires modelling innovations, but should be feasible.

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RangeShiftR: an R package for individual‐based simulation of spatial eco‐evolutionary dynamics and species' responses to environmental changes

Cited by 15 publications

References 41 publications

Problems seeded in the past: lagged effects of historical land-use changes can cause an extinction debt in long-lived species due to movement limitation

Problems seeded in the past: lagged effects of historical land-use changes can cause an extinction debt in long-lived species due to movement limitation

Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

The road to integrate climate change effects on land-use change in regional biodiversity models

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