RangeShifter 2.0: an extended and enhanced platform for modelling spatial eco‐evolutionary dynamics and species' responses to environmental changes

Bocedi, Greta; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Malchow, Anne‐Kathleen; Zurell, Damaris; Watts, Kevin; Travis, Justin

doi:10.1111/ecog.05687

Cited by 47 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 69 publications

(80 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We expect that our approach can also be applied to different species inhabiting dynamic landscapes, especially for long-lived species with limited movement ability, and to be integrated into management plans (Stillman et al 2015). This calls for a new research directions based on the development of more general tools that adapt to different species, such as new platforms for individual-based simulations to study species' responses to environmental changes (Bocedi et al 2021;Malchow et al 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Problems seeded in the past: lagged effects of historical land-use changes can cause an extinction debt in long-lived species due to movement limitation

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Context Land-use change is one of the main threats to biodiversity on the global scale. Legacy effects of historical land-use changes may affect population dynamics of long-lived species, but they are difficult to evaluate through observational studies alone. We present here an interdisciplinary modelling approach as an alternative to address this problem in landscape ecology. Objectives Assess effects of agricultural abandonment and anthropisation on the population dynamics of long-lived species. Specifically, we evaluated: (a) how changes in movement patterns caused by land-use change might impact population dynamics; (b) time-lag responses of demographic variables in relation to land-use changes. Methods We applied an individual-based and spatial-explicit simulation model of the spur-tighed tortoise (Testudo graeca), an endangered species, to sequences of real-world landscape changes representing agricultural abandonment and anthropisation at the local scale. We analysed different demographic variables and compared an “impact scenario” (i.e., historical land-use changes) with a “control scenario” (no land-use changes). Results While agricultural abandonment did not lead to relevant changes in demographic variables, anthropisation negatively affected the reproductive rate, population density and the extinction probability with time-lag responses of 20, 30 and 130 years, respectively, and caused an extinction debt of 22%. Conclusions We provide an understanding of how changes in animal movement driven by land-use changes can translate into lagged impacts on demography and, ultimately, on population viability. Implementation of proactive mitigation management are needed to promote landscape connectivity, especially for long-lived species for which first signatures of an extinction debt may arise only after decades.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Problems seeded in the past: lagged effects of historical land-use changes can cause an extinction debt in long-lived species due to movement limitation

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…temporal dynamics and coexistence of functional groups under land-use management in complex landscapes Lautenbach et al, 2017;Quétier et al, 2007), or the geographical range of focal species (e.g. Bocedi et al, 2014Bocedi et al, , 2021Faleiro et al, 2013;Sales et al, 2020;Zamora-Gutierrez et al, 2021). The partial effect of land use on biodiversity (i.e disentangling its effect from other disturbances such as climate change) has been considered in few studies.…”

Section: Modelling Regional Biodiversity Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Further integration of biodiversity could be achieved through modelling the expansion of common plant species (e.g. via range models Sarmento Cabral et al, 2013;Bocedi et al, 2014Bocedi et al, , 2021 that would directly impact the land cover. Another flexible and theoretically consistent framework to model land allocation decisions might be the use of household models (Singh et al, 1986), which account for departures from traditional profit-maximization.…”

Section: Integrating Climate-driven Biodiversity Change Into Land-use...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The road to integrate climate change effects on land-use change in regional biodiversity models

Cabral

Mendoza‐Ponce

Silva

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

1. Current modelling approaches to predict spatially explicit biodiversity responses to climate change mainly focus on the direct effects of climate on species. Integration of spatiotemporal land-cover scenarios is still limited. Current approaches either regard land cover as constant boundary conditions, or rely on general, typically globally defined land-use scenarios. This is problematic as it disregards the complex synergistic effects of climate and land use on biodiversity at the regional scale, as biophysical, economic, and social issues important for regional land-use decisions are also affected by climate change. To realistically predict climate impacts on biodiversity, it is therefore necessary to consider both, the direct effect of climate change on biodiversity, and its indirect effect on biodiversity via land-use change. 2. In this review and perspective paper, we outline how biodiversity models could be better integrated with regional, climate-driven land-use models. We provide an overview of empirical and modelling approaches to both land-use (LU) and biodiversity (BD) change, focusing on how integration has been attempted. We then analyse how LU and BD model properties, such as scales, inputs, and outputs, can be matched and identify potential integration challenges and opportunities. 3. We found LU integration in BD models has been frequently attempted. By contrast, integrating the role of BD in models of LU decisions is largely lacking. As a result, bi-directional effects remain largely understudied. Only few integrated LU-BD socio-ecological models have assessed climate change effects on LU and no study has yet investigated the relative contribution of direct vs. indirect effects of climate change on BD. 4. There is a large potential for model integration given the overlap on spatial scales, although challenges remain with respect to spatial scale, temporal dynamics, investigation of indirect effects, and bi-directionality, including feeding back to climate models. Efforts to better understand human decisions, eco-evolutionary dynamics, connection between terrestrial and aquatic systems, and format standardization of modelling outputs and empirical data should improve future models. Integrating biodiversity feedbacks into land-use and climate models requires modelling innovations, but should be feasible.

show abstract

“…Depending on the time scale, IBMs can consider several processes, for example annual cycles of survival, reproduction and dispersal or daily cycles of foraging and movement. They can also include genetic dynamics (Bocedi et al 2021). Patch occupancy models (POM) describe spatial distribution of populations as the result of two underlying processes, colonisation and extinction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatially explicit models for decision‐making in animal conservation and restoration

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79%), towards the species and population level (80%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10% of the studies. We present a new model typology for selecting models for animal conservation and restoration, characterising model types according to organisational levels, biological processes of interest and desired management applications. This typology will help to more closely link models to management goals. Additionally, future efforts need to overcome important challenges related to data integration, model integration and decision-making. We conclude with five key recommendations, suggesting that wider usage of spatially explicit models for decision support can be achieved by 1) developing a toolbox with multiple, easier-to-use methods, 2) improving calibration and validation of dynamic modelling approaches and 3) developing best-practise guidelines for applying these models. Further, more robust decision-making can be achieved by 4) combining multiple modelling approaches to assess uncertainty, and 5) placing models at the core of adaptive management. These efforts must be accompanied by longterm funding for modelling and monitoring, and improved communication between research and practise to ensure optimal conservation and restoration outcomes.

show abstract

RangeShifter 2.0: an extended and enhanced platform for modelling spatial eco‐evolutionary dynamics and species' responses to environmental changes

Cited by 47 publications

References 69 publications

Problems seeded in the past: lagged effects of historical land-use changes can cause an extinction debt in long-lived species due to movement limitation

Problems seeded in the past: lagged effects of historical land-use changes can cause an extinction debt in long-lived species due to movement limitation

The road to integrate climate change effects on land-use change in regional biodiversity models

Spatially explicit models for decision‐making in animal conservation and restoration

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About