Range edges of North American marine species are tracking temperature over decades

Fredston, Alexa; Pinsky, Malin L.; Selden, Rebecca L.; Szuwalski, Cody; Thorson, James T.; Gaines, Steven D.; Halpern, Benjamin S.

doi:10.1111/gcb.15614

Cited by 50 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 76 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…aequa / subbotinae is further supported by marked increases in their abundances throughout the circum-Antarctic region during the PETM ( 40 )—increases that cannot be attributed to sediment mixing because these taxa were absent or present only in trace amounts in the southern high latitudes prior to the CIE. Our isotopically filtered census data thus suggest that some tropical planktic foraminifer taxa experienced both leading- and trailing-edge dynamics to their biogeographic ranges, where poleward range shifts were accompanied by local extirpations in the tropics. Similar range shifts are underway today ( 41 ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 54%

Isotopic filtering reveals high sensitivity of planktic calcifiers to Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum warming and acidification

Hupp

Kelly

Williams

2022

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Ocean warming and acidification driven by anthropogenic carbon emissions pose an existential threat to marine calcifying communities. A similar perturbation to global carbon cycling and ocean chemistry occurred ∼56 Ma during the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), but microfossil records of the marine biotic response are distorted by sediment mixing. Here, we use the carbon isotope excursion marking the PETM to distinguish planktic foraminifer shells calcified during the PETM from those calcified prior to the event and then isotopically filter anachronous specimens from the PETM microfossil assemblages. We find that nearly one-half of foraminifer shells in a deep-sea PETM record from the central Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program Site 865) are reworked contaminants. Contrary to previous interpretations, corrected assemblages reveal a transient but significant decrease in tropical planktic foraminifer diversity at this open-ocean site during the PETM. The decrease in local diversity was caused by extirpation of shallow- and deep-dwelling taxa as they underwent extratropical migrations in response to heat stress, with one prominent lineage showing signs of impaired calcification possibly due to ocean acidification. An absence of subbotinids in the corrected assemblages suggests that ocean deoxygenation may have rendered thermocline depths uninhabitable for some deeper-dwelling taxa. Latitudinal range shifts provided a rapid-response survival mechanism for tropical planktic foraminifers during the PETM, but the rapidity of ocean warming and acidification projected for the coming centuries will likely strain the adaptability of these resilient calcifiers.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 54%

Isotopic filtering reveals high sensitivity of planktic calcifiers to Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum warming and acidification

Hupp

Kelly

Williams

2022

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This result is consistent with estimates that suggest that the range edges of marine species are generally, but not universally, changing with warming ocean water temperatures (Sunday et al . 2012; Fredston et al . 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Groundfish biodiversity change in northeastern Pacific waters under projected warming and deoxygenation

Thompson

Nephin

Davies

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Projections of how climate change will impact marine species and communities are urgently needed to inform management measures aimed at stemming biodiversity loss. In the coming decades, warming and deoxygenation of marine waters are anticipated to result in shifts in the distribution and abundance of fishes, with consequences for the diversity and composition of fish communities. Most projections to date have focused on temperature, but have not accounted for the confounding influence of oxygen and depth and are limited by the spatial resolution of global climate models. Here, we combine fisheries independent trawl survey data spanning the west coast of the USA and Canada with high resolution regional ocean models to make projections of how 40 groundfish species will be impacted by changes in temperature and oxygen in British Columbia (B.C.) and Washington. By leveraging coast-wide survey data, we quantify how temperature, oxygen, and depth jointly constrain the ranges of species. Then, using two high-resolution regional ocean-biogeochemical models, we make projections of biodiversity change at a high spatial resolution. Our projections suggest that, in B.C. and Washington, the number of species that are projected to decrease in occurrence is roughly balanced by the number that are projected to increase, resulting in considerable compositional turnover. Many, but not all, species are projected to shift to deeper depths as conditions warm, but low oxygen will limit how deep they can go. Thus biodiversity will likely decrease in the shallowest waters (< 100 m) where warming will be greatest, increase at mid depths (100 - 600 m) as shallow species shift deeper, and remain stable or decrease at depths where oxygen is limited (> 600 m). These results highlight the critical importance of accounting for the joint role of temperature, oxygen, and depth when projecting the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity.

show abstract

“…Clearly, the communities that best match this theory are open-ocean. Oceanic species have tended to keep pace with warming temperatures, with 3/4 of species maintaining their species-specific climate envelopes [ 8 , 11 , 28 – 30 ]. These effects are sufficiently general that marine species richness is declining faster around the equator than at other latitudes [ 31 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mosaics of climatic stress across species' ranges: tradeoffs cause adaptive evolution to limits of climatic tolerance

Parmesan

Singer

2022

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Studies in birds and trees show climatic stresses distributed across species' ranges, not only at range limits. Here, new analyses from the butterfly Euphydryas editha reveal mechanisms generating these stresses: geographic mosaics of natural selection, acting on tradeoffs between climate adaptation and fitness traits, cause some range-central populations to evolve to limits of climatic tolerance, while others remain resilient. In one ecotype, selection for predator avoidance drives evolution to limits of thermal tolerance. In a second ecotype, the endangered Bay Checkerspot, selection on fecundity drives evolution to the climate-sensitive limit of ability to complete development within the lifespans of ephemeral hosts, causing routinely high mortality from insect–host phenological asynchrony. The tradeoff between maternal fecundity and offspring mortality generated similar values of fitness on different dates, partly explaining why fecundity varied by more than an order of magnitude. Evolutionary response to the tradeoff rendered climatic variability the main driver of Bay Checkerspot dynamics, and increases in this variability, associated with climate change, were a key factor behind permanent extinction of a protected metapopulation. Finally, we discuss implications for conservation planning of our finding that adaptive evolution can reduce population-level resilience to climate change and generate geographic mosaics of climatic stress. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’.

show abstract

Range edges of North American marine species are tracking temperature over decades

Cited by 50 publications

References 76 publications

Isotopic filtering reveals high sensitivity of planktic calcifiers to Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum warming and acidification

Isotopic filtering reveals high sensitivity of planktic calcifiers to Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum warming and acidification

Groundfish biodiversity change in northeastern Pacific waters under projected warming and deoxygenation

Mosaics of climatic stress across species' ranges: tradeoffs cause adaptive evolution to limits of climatic tolerance

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About