For the last three decades, MIL-HDBK-217 has been widely used to predict product reliability. In many cases the prediction model results are inaccurate when compared with subsequently measured mean time between failures in the field. One reason for the difference is because the aging theory used in the MIL-HDBK-217 and similar approaches typically assume a single longterm aging process that is related to a reaction rate. The aging process model is based on the original Arrhenius model, which is based on reaction rates in chemical mixtures. This model has been extended to the breakdown of insulation in electrical systems as the number of discharges increase over time. A temperature impact model has also been developed to address the increase in insulation breakdown at elevated temperature. The temperature model has been used to support accelerated reliability testing.
Purpose of MIL-HDBK-217This military standard is used to estimate the inherent reliability of electronic equipment and systems, based on component failure data. It consists of two basic prediction methods:Parts-Count Analysis-Requires relatively little information about the system and primarily uses the number of parts in each category with consideration of part quality and environments encountered. Generally, the method is applied in the early design phase, where the detailed circuit design is unknown, to obtain a preliminary estimate of system reliability.Part-Stress Prediction-Updates the initial estimate with specific models for stress-analysis, environmental conditions, quality applications, maximum ratings, complexity, temperature, construction, and a number of other application-related factors. This method tends to be used near the end of the design cycle, after the actual circuit design has been defined.
Failure Rate EquationsThe general failure rate model for a part in MIL-HDBK-217 is of the form:Where: h, = the base failure rate, is described by the Arrhenius equation, and ~C~~C E~C A . . . = factors related to component quality, environment, and application stressThe Arrhenius equation illustrates the relationship between insulation breakdown rate and temperature for components. It can be derived from the observed dependence of chemical reactions on temperature changes.
A-1Application of Aging Theory E __
R ( t ) = AeWhere: R(T) = process rate (e.g., rate of discharge increase) E = activation energy for the process K = Boltzmann's constant T = absolute temperature A = a constant The activation energy for each component can vary, and example of activation energies is shown in Table A-1. This is a first order impact of the activation energy for failure mechanisms applicable to microcircuits (Livingston 2000).
Application of Arrhenius Equation in AgingMIL-HDBK-217F provides measured data for each part type, such as microcircuits, transistors, resistors, and connectors. The failure rates of components that are determined by accelerated testing using a high temperature can be converted to an operational condition at a lower temperature, by u...