Rainfall trend analysis and weather forecast accuracy in selected parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon, which has various effects on people's environmental and socioeconomic conditions. In the agricultural economy that is susceptible to natural changes, its impact is more profound. Therefore, climate change directly affects society in different ways, and society must pay a price. Climate change, especially the changes in annual temperature and rainfall, has attracted widespread attention worldwide. The variability of these factors or the magnitude of fluctuations varies according to location. Therefore, in the context of climate change, especially in countries dominated by rainfed agriculture, studying the trend of meteorological variables is essential to assess climate-induced variations and propose feasible adaptation approaches. Focusing on this fact is the main goal of this research study was to determine the rainfall trend and the accuracy of predicted temperature at three particular stations of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kp) Province, Pakistan. For this purpose, rainfall and temperature data were provided by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, for the period 1960–2020. Two types of nonparametric techniques, Sen’s slope estimate and the Mann–Kendall test, were applied to determine a trend in the average monthly and annual rainfall. The results of the annual rainfall trend analysis showed that Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan stations showed a positive increasing trend, while the monthly rainfall trend showed a negative decreasing trend for all stations. The trend was statistically significant for Peshawar and Saidu Sharif stations. The accuracy of predicted and actual temperature and rainfall indicated that mostly over-forecast occurred at Saidu Sharif and Peshawar. Most of the precipitation and temperature records showed under forecast for Dera Ismail Khan, but some over-prediction has also occurred. Graphical abstract

Climate change and spatio-temporal trend analysis of climate extremes in the homogeneous climatic zones of Pakistan during 1962-2019

“…Most of the studies conducted in Pakistan considered a sub-region of Pakistan for their analyses [ 25 – 29 ]. For instance, Alam et al [ 25 ] considered three meteorological stations in the north-western part (Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province) and used Mann Kendall (MK) test for trend analysis using daily observed data for the duration of 1960–2020. Safdar et al [ 27 ] investigated the climate change indicators and spatio-temporal shift in Monsoon pattern by using observed data for the duration of 1980–2017.…”

Analysis on temporal variability of monsoon rainfall using ARIMA Model and ANN-LSTM

“…When the value of p=1, d=0, and q=1, the expression for the ARIMA model is (1,0,1) given as indicated by [15].…”

Hydrological Study and Hydraulic Modeling of Flood Risk in the Watershed of the Oued Lahdar (Upper Inaouene, Morocco)

“…Therefore, winter floods are better predicted [Kichigina, 2021]. Forecasting precipitation is important for mitigating and managing environmental flows, floods, and water demand in various regions [Alam et al, 2021]. However, due to the complexity of atmospheric processes, quantitative precipitation forecasting remains a challenge [Prusov et al, 2019].…”