Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal

Gabet, Emmanuel J.; Burbank, Douglas W.; Putkonen, Jaakko; Pratt-Sitaula, Beth; Ojha, T. P.

doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.03.011

Cited by 234 publications

(185 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…This effect may be related to the variations in sediment availability, rainstorm intensity, or soil moisture thresholds as identified in other parts of the Himalaya (e.g. Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008;Gabet, 2004;Soja and Starkel, 2007). Unfortunately, our data do not allow to better constrain the suspended sediment sources.…”

Section: Monsoonal Controls On Suspended Sediment Fluxmentioning

confidence: 90%

Climatic and geologic controls on suspended sediment flux in the Sutlej River Valley, western Himalaya

Wulf

Bookhagen

Scherler

2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The sediment flux through Himalayan rivers directly impacts water quality and is important for sustaining agriculture as well as maintaining drinking-water and hydropower generation. Despite the recent increase in demand for these resources, little is known about the triggers and sources of extreme sediment flux events, which lower water quality and account for extensive hydropower reservoir filling and turbine abrasion. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal trends in suspended sediment flux based on daily data during the past decade (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)) from four sites along the Sutlej River and from four of its main tributaries. In conjunction with satellite data depicting rainfall and snow cover, air temperature and earthquake records, and field observations, we infer climatic and geologic controls of peak suspended sediment concentration (SSC) events. Our study identifies three key findings: First, peak SSC events (≥ 99th SSC percentile) coincide frequently (57-80 %) with heavy rainstorms and account for about 30 % of the suspended sediment flux in the semi-arid to arid interior of the orogen. Second, we observe an increase of suspended sediment flux from the Tibetan Plateau to the Himalayan Front at mean annual timescales. This sediment-flux gradient suggests that averaged, modern erosion in the western Himalaya is most pronounced at frontal regions, which are characterized by high monsoonal rainfall and thick soil cover. Third, in seven of eight catchments, we find an anticlockwise hysteresis loop of annual sediment flux variations with respect to river discharge, which appears to be related to enhanced glacial sediment evacuation during late summer. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of unconsolidated sediments in the high-elevation sector that can easily be mobilized by hydrometeorological events and higher glacialmeltwater contributions. In future climate change scenarios, including continuous glacial retreat and more frequent monsoonal rainstorms across the Himalaya, we expect an increase in peak SSC events, which will decrease the water quality and impact hydropower generation.

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Section: Monsoonal Controls On Suspended Sediment Fluxmentioning

confidence: 90%

Climatic and geologic controls on suspended sediment flux in the Sutlej River Valley, western Himalaya

Wulf

Bookhagen

Scherler

2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…This type of approach, however, is not very helpful in alerting civil protection authorities or other stakeholders to when a potential damaging event could occur. The use of rainfall triggering thresholds to determine when soil slips are likely to occur, on the other hand, is able to provide a statistically-based temporal indication of landslide occurrence on a threshold-alert basis and a large body of literature exists on the topic (Caine, 1980;Innes, 1983;Cannon and Ellen, 1985;Larsen and Simon, 1993;Glade et al, 2000;Gabet et al, 2004;Guzzetti et al, 2008). When the rainfall threshold is exceeded during a storm, an alert can be sent out by authorities to provide warning for potential landslides.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a definition of a real-time forecasting network for rainfall induced shallow landslides

Segoni

Leoni

Benedetti

et al. 2009

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. PREVIEW is an European Commission FP6 Integrated Project with the aim of developing, at an European level, innovative geo-information services for atmospheric, geophysical and man-made risks. Within this framework, the Landslides Platform Service 2 (forecasting of shallow rapid slope movements) has developed an integrated procedure for the forecasting and warning of distributed shallow landsliding to be used for civil protection purposes.The Service consists of an automated end-to-end forecasting chain which uses data from a probabilistic downscaled short-term rainfall forecast, soil saturation estimates and meteorological radar outputs. The above data are entered into a hydro-geological model that makes use of an infinite slope approach to calculate the distributed Factor of Safety over the entire basin. All outputs, and much of the input data, are shown on a WebGIS system so that end-users can interactively access and download data. A distinctive feature of the service is the use of an innovative soil depth model for predicting the distributed thickness of the regolith cover within the basin, which is one of the most important parameters controlling shallow landslide triggering.The service was developed in a pilot test site in NE Italy, the Armea basin. Validation makes use of two rainfall events: one that occurred in 2000 and a smaller, more recent event (2006) that caused fewer landslides. Rainfall data have been used to compute a distributed factor-of-safety map that has been overlaid onto the landslide inventory. Instead of a traditional validation approach based on the number count of correctly identified landslides, we carried out an alternative procedure based on the landslides area that gave outcomes which, for this preliminary stage of the research, can be considered promising.

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“…The likelihood of daily rainfall conditions exceeding the threshold amount can then be expressed as a probability based on historical rainfall information (Glade et al, 2000). Wilson and Wieczorek (1995) and Gabet et al (2004) have presented similar approaches for an area in the Santa Cruz Mountains of central California and the Himalayas of Nepal, respectively, each using the physical analogy of a leaky barrel to mimic piezometric response in a hillslope.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall characteristics for shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington, USA

Godt

Baum

Chleborad

2005

Earth Surf Processes Landf

239

152

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Shallow landsliding in the Seattle, Washington, area, has caused the occasional loss of human life and millions of dollars in damage to property. The effective management of the hazard requires an understanding of the rainfall conditions that result in landslides. We present an empirical approach to quantify the antecedent moisture conditions and rainstorm intensity and duration that have triggered shallow landsliding using 25 years of hourly rainfall data and a complementary record of landslide occurrence. Our approach combines a simple water balance to estimate the antecedent moisture conditions of hillslope materials and a rainfall intensity-duration threshold to identify periods when shallow landsliding can be expected. The water balance is calibrated with field-monitoring data and combined with the rainfall intensity-duration threshold using a decision tree. Results are cast in terms of a hypothetical landslide warning system. Two widespread landslide events are correctly identified by the warning scheme; however, it is less accurate for more isolated landsliding. Copyright

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Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal

Cited by 234 publications

References 25 publications

Climatic and geologic controls on suspended sediment flux in the Sutlej River Valley, western Himalaya

Climatic and geologic controls on suspended sediment flux in the Sutlej River Valley, western Himalaya

Towards a definition of a real-time forecasting network for rainfall induced shallow landslides

Rainfall characteristics for shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington, USA

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