Rainfall risk, fertility and development: evidence from farm settlements during the American demographic transition

Abstract

I analyze whether variation in rainfall risk played a role in the demographic transition. The hypothesis is that children constituted a buffer stock of labor that could be mobilized in response to income shocks. Identification relies on fertility differences between farm and non-farm households within counties and over time. The results suggest that in areas with a high variance in rainfall the fertility differential was significantly higher than in areas with a low variance in rainfall. This channel is robust to other relevant forces and the spatial correlation in fertility. The effect disappeared as irrigation systems and agricultural machinery emerged.

The Impact of Margaret Sanger's Birth Control Clinics on Early 20th Century U.S. Fertility and Mortality

“…8 We follow the historical literature and measure fertility using the child-woman ratio (see, e.g., Beach and Hanlon, forthcoming;Bleakley and Lange, 2009;Hacker, 2003). More precisely, we use the number of children below the age of five living in the household of each 15 to 39-year-old woman (Grimm, 2021). We exclude older women as the likelihood that women above the age of 40 have children below the age of five at home is low in our period of observation.…”

“…Second, we add to the general understanding of the U.S. demographic transition (see, e.g. Bourne Wahl, 1992;Steckel, 1992;Haines, 2000;Greenwood and Seshadri, 2002;Hacker, 2003;Haines and Hacker, 2006;Jones and Tertilt, 2006;Curtis White, 2008;Bleakley and Lange, 2009;Bailey and Collins, 2011;Guinnane, 2011;Wanamaker, 2012;Aaronson et al, 2014;Bailey et al, 2014;Hansen et al, 2018;Bailey and Hershbein, 2018;Beach and Hanlon, forthcoming;Ager et al, 2020;Grimm, 2021). Third, we complement the literature that focuses specifically on the role of anti-abortion legislation (Lahey, 2014a(Lahey, ,b, 2022 and modern contraception (Goldin and Katz, 2002;Bailey, 2006Bailey, , 2010 in the U.S.…”