Rainfall-Induced Landslide Susceptibility Using a Rainfall–Runoff Model and Logistic Regression

Chan, Hsun-Chuan; Chen, Po–An; Lee, Jung-Tai

doi:10.3390/w10101354

Cited by 20 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…On the basis of the concept of the effective stress, the shear strength of the soil can be written using the extended Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion [8] as: (12) where τ denotes the shear strength of the soil; c is the effective cohesion; φ represents the angle of effective friction; σ is the total normal stress; u a and u w are the pore air pressure and pore water pressure, respectively; u a − u w denotes the matric suction; and χ denotes the effective stress parameter dependent on the degree of saturation. Much experimental evidence has shown that the effective stress parameter χ of unsaturated soil is a highly nonlinear function of the matric suction.…”

Section: Soil Failure Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

“…where S is the saturation degree, S r denotes the residual degree of saturation, and S e represents the effective saturation. From Equation (12) and the water retention curve (i.e., Equation (2)), a highly nonlinear relationship between the effective stress parameter and the matric suction can be observed for unsaturated soil. Equations (12) and (14) show that the unsaturated shear strength is related to the saturation degree.…”

Section: Soil Failure Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Soil failure occurs at a depth Z when the acting stress is greater than the resisting stress (i.e., the stress required to resist friction and cohesion). By adopting the infinite slope stability analysis with the shear strength of soil, as given by Equation (12), and assuming the pore air pressure is atmospheric, the factor of safety (FS) [7] can be expressed as where γ w denotes the unit weight of water and γ denotes the depth-averaged unit weight of soil, which can be written as (16) where G S is the specific gravity of soil solids. In Equation (15), if the soil is saturated (i.e., the groundwater pressure head is positive), ψ P is identical to ψ and ψ c is zero; if the soil is unsaturated, ψ c is equal to ψ, whereas ψ P is zero.…”

Section: Soil Failure Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The details of the algorithm of the 2D-SWE module can be found in [23], and details of the soil failure module can be found in [11] or [7]. An iterative procedure ( Figure 1) is adopted to solve Equations (1) to (12). The iterative approach alternates the solutions of the infiltration and shallow water equations at each time step until convergence is reached.…”

Section: Soil Failure Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Investigation of the Influence of Rainfall Runoff on Shallow Landslides in Unsaturated Soil Using a Mathematical Model

Chiu

Chen

Yeh

2019

Water

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Infiltration and groundwater have been widely considered as the main factors that cause shallow landslides; however, the effect of runoff has received less attention. In this study, an in-house physical-process-based shallow landslide model is developed to demonstrate the influence of runoff. The model is controlled by coupling the shallow water equation (dynamic) and Richards' equation. An infinite slope stability analysis is applied to evaluate the possibility of regional landslides. A real, small catchment topography is adopted as a demonstration example. The simulation illustrates the variations of runoff and the factor of safety (FS) during a storm. The results indicate that, after the surface becomes saturated, the FS may keep varying due to the increasing pressure head, which is caused by increasing surface water depth. This phenomenon most likely occurs downstream where the slopes easily accumulate water. The depth of the surface water may also be a factor of slope failure. Therefore, it is essential to increase the accuracy of calculating the runoff depth when assessing regional shallow landslides. stimulated by the rise of the groundwater table. Tsai and Wang [10] demonstrated the effect of different patterns of rainfall on shallow landslides in unsaturated soils, stimulated by dissipation through matric suction. Chen et al. [11] further explored the effects of rainfall duration, rainfall amount, and lateral flow-induced slope failures, using a vertical two-dimensional (2D) numerical landslide model. The relationships between rainfall infiltration and slope failures have been discussed extensively.Recently, some studies have connected landslides with runoff depth. For example, Chan et al.[12] combined a hydrological model and a landslide susceptibility model to establish a landslide analysis procedure. The results of their study indicated that the runoff flow depth may be selected as an analysis factor instead of the rainfall depth or maximum rainfall intensity. However, studies have seldom directly confirmed the physical mechanism of runoff on shallow landslides; although surface runoff is considered to increase the water pressure and affect the boundary conditions of infiltration, this behavior has not been demonstrated clearly.Furthermore, most landslide models were simplified for modeling the surface water flow. Some models focusing on the simulation of the infiltration mechanism did not consider the water depth [13,14]. Some assumed a kinematic or diffusion wave to model surface water flow [15][16][17]. However, ignoring the runoff or simplifying the momentum equations may fail to evaluate the effect of surface runoff. For the purpose of accurately evaluating the influence of runoff, dynamic equations may be more suitable.This study develops an in-house physical-process-based landslide model to observe the influence of runoff on shallow landslides in unsaturated soil. The model is governed by the coupling of the 2D shallow water equation (dynamic) and one-dimensional (1D) Richards' equation to simu...

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Section: Soil Failure Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Soil Failure Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Soil Failure Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Soil Failure Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Investigation of the Influence of Rainfall Runoff on Shallow Landslides in Unsaturated Soil Using a Mathematical Model

Chiu

Chen

Yeh

2019

Water

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show abstract

“…Logistic regression analysis, also called binary regression analysis, is a widely used statistical model when the dependent variable is binary, e.g., landslide occurrence or nonoccurrence, and independent variables are in the numerical type (e.g., slope), in the categorical type (e.g., lithology), or in both types (e.g., [44]). As it is beyond the present paper's scope, some detailed verification of applying the logistic regression model to landslide prediction can be referred to in the literature (e.g., [45][46][47]).…”

Section: Landslide Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Modeling of Sediment Budget in Shihmen Reservoir Watershed in Taiwan

Chen

Shen³

et al. 2018

Water

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Qualifying sediment dynamic in a reservoir watershed is essential for water resource management. This study proposed an integrated model of Grid-based Sediment Production and Transport Model (GSPTM) at watershed scale to evaluate the dynamic of sediment production and transport in the Shihmen Reservoir watershed in Taiwan. The GSPTM integrates several models, revealing landslide susceptibility and processes of rainfall-runoff, sediment production from landslide and soil erosion, debris flow and mass movement, and sediment transport. For modeling rainfall-runoff process, the tanks model gives surface runoff volume and soil water index as a hydrological parameter for a logistic regression-based landslide susceptibility model. Then, applying landslide model with a scaling relation of volume and area predicts landslide occurrence. The Universal Soil Loss Equation is then used for calculating soil erosion volume. Finally, incorporating runoff-routing algorithm and the Hunt's model achieves the dynamical modeling of sediment transport. The landslide module was calibrated using a well-documented inventory during 10 heavy rainfall or typhoon events since 2004. A simulation of Typhoon Morakot event was performed to evaluate model's performance. The results show the simulation agrees with the tendency of runoff and sediment discharge evolution with an acceptable overestimation of peak runoff, and predicts more precise sediment discharge than rating methods do. In addition, with clear distribution of sediment mass trapped in the mountainous area, the GSPTM also showed a sediment delivery ratio of 30% to quantify how much mass produced by landslide and soil erosion is still trapped in mountainous area. The GSPTM is verified to be useful and capable of modeling the dynamic of sediment production and transport at watershed level, and can provide useful information for sustainable development of Shihmen Reservoir watershed.

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Spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility using projected storm rainfall and land use in Himalayan region

Chowdhuri

Pal

Chakrabortty

et al. 2021

Bull Eng Geol Environ

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Rainfall-Induced Landslide Susceptibility Using a Rainfall–Runoff Model and Logistic Regression

Cited by 20 publications

References 30 publications

Investigation of the Influence of Rainfall Runoff on Shallow Landslides in Unsaturated Soil Using a Mathematical Model

Investigation of the Influence of Rainfall Runoff on Shallow Landslides in Unsaturated Soil Using a Mathematical Model

Dynamic Modeling of Sediment Budget in Shihmen Reservoir Watershed in Taiwan

Spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility using projected storm rainfall and land use in Himalayan region

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