Rainfall and rainy days trend and ENSO phenomena in Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan

Sharma, Vasker; Adhikari, Kirtan

doi:10.1007/s11600-022-00839-y

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Therefore, we also tested these mutation points in combination with a t-test, combining the two methods to find the true mutation points. The M-K is a nonparametric test for the time series of meteorological elements [38][39][40], which is not required for the distribution of the series to be tested, is not disturbed by a few outliers, and can clarify the time when the mutation starts. The test was used to analyze the mutation of AI, ET 0 , and P changes in the last 30 years in Xinjiang, given a significance level α = 0.05 and a critical line U = ±1.96.…”

Section: Mann-kendall Test (M-k)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends, Cycles, and Spatial Distribution of the Precipitation, Potential Evapotranspiration and Aridity Index in Xinjiang, China

Zhang

Long

et al. 2022

Water

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Xinjiang is a typical continental arid climate zone and ecologically fragile zone. Drought has caused damage to the local social economy, agricultural production, and the ecological environment. However, the study of drought is more difficult due to the complex topography and the lack of monitoring information. In this paper, based on the meteorological data of 94 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020, we used the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) to calculate the aridity index (AI); the Mann–Kendall test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and Kriging interpolation were used to identify the trend, period, and spatial distribution. The results showed that (1) the average change rate of the precipitation in Xinjiang was 8.58 mm/10a, the average change rate of the ET0 was −14.84 mm/10a, and the average change rate of the AI was −1.94/10a; (2) the periods of precipitation, ET0, and AI in Xinjiang were 39, 29, and 14 years, respectively, and the abrupt changes occurred in 1986, 1971, and 1987, respectively; (3) The Moran index of precipitation and temperature are 0.41 and 0.33, respectively, indicating that precipitation and temperature in Xinjiang are positively correlated in spatial distribution and have spatial clustering characteristics; and the z-values are both greater than 2.58 (p < 0.01), indicating that the spatial autocorrelation of precipitation and temperature in Xinjiang is significant. This study can provide a reference for the diagnosis of the meteorological drought mechanism and the coping with climate change in Xinjiang.

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Section: Mann-kendall Test (M-k)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends, Cycles, and Spatial Distribution of the Precipitation, Potential Evapotranspiration and Aridity Index in Xinjiang, China

Zhang

Long

et al. 2022

Water

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“…Since the missing data ranged from a maximum of 12% for Tashithang and a minimum of 2% for Lingshi and Punakha, imputing with mean values is acceptable for the hydrological modeling. Since the evapotranspiration data was not available for the studied area, it has been calculated through the RS Minerve software using the Turc's equation (1) . .…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of the running rivers in Bhutan are fed by the glaciers and snow from the upper Himalayas of Bhutan. The flow in these rivers is also partly sustained by the seasonal monsoon rainfall which mostly occurs during July, August and September [1]. The country heavily relies on its water resources for its economic and social development which is mainly driven by hydropower.…”

Section: Introduction 11 Bhutan's Hydropower Situationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model for Glaciated Punatshangchu Basin in Bhutan

Sharma¹,

Jorden²,

Manso³

et al. 2021

JAETM

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Hydropower plays a pivotal role in the socio-economic development of Bhutan where water resource is abundantly available and therefore several hydropower plants are being planned and a few under construction. However, with the presence of several potentially dangerous glacier lakes within the higher elevations, the country is always at the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) and climate change which poses higher uncertainty regarding the sustainability of hydropower reservoirs in the long run. To understand the hydrological response of the basin, where new hydropower plants are going to be installed soon, a complex semi-distributed hydrological model has been prepared for the Punatshangchu basin using RS MINERVE. After calibration and validation of the model, it is observed that the model reflects low relative volume bias (-0.196 - 0.050) and high Nash efficiency (0.540 - 0.990) which is an important aspect to be considered for any hydropower dam and its operational schemes. Such a model is a viable tool well adapted to an operational flood forecasting system and management. With the built-in scheme for hydropower, reservoir, planner, and turbines within RS Minerve, it could be used to understand the array of scenarios for planning and operations.

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“…Previous studies on rainfall trends in Bhutan revealed a general decreasing trend, but future projections show an increase with a substantial change in the spatial pattern of winter and summer monsoon precipitation [1,26,30]. Sharma et al [31] revealed that rainfall patterns in the south of the country are negatively influenced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, while the majority of the country remains unaffected. All these studies confirmed the sporadic nature of rainfall patterns over Bhutan owing to its orography.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices over Bhutan

et al. 2023

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With the changing climate, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are increasing. Climate change is projected to increase both mean and extreme precipitation. Socio-economic damages can be immense and require a difficult recovery, especially for developing countries such as Bhutan. Furthermore, changing precipitation patterns affect land productivity and water availability. The Experts Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) is used to find the changes associated with extreme precipitation in Bhutan. The study of extreme precipitation is important for Bhutan, whose economy is dependent on agriculture and hydropower. Even for a small country, there were varying patterns of precipitation in different districts. Deothang district received less frequent and more intense rainfall, while Haa, Bumthang, Trashiyangtse, and Chukha received weak but persistent rainfall. Mann–Kendall trends revealed a drier climate for two districts, Dagana and Trashiyangtse, and a wetter climate for the Mongar district. Modeling of the extreme rainfall with extreme value theory (EVT) revealed that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution by their T = 50-year return value, indicating an increasing value of annual maximums for all stations. This study is the first of its kind for Bhutan, and the findings can be used for decision support and the planning of appropriate adaptation strategies for hydro-meteorological disasters, hydropower, and agriculture sectors in Bhutan.

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Rainfall and rainy days trend and ENSO phenomena in Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan

Cited by 6 publications

References 44 publications

Trends, Cycles, and Spatial Distribution of the Precipitation, Potential Evapotranspiration and Aridity Index in Xinjiang, China

Trends, Cycles, and Spatial Distribution of the Precipitation, Potential Evapotranspiration and Aridity Index in Xinjiang, China

Development of a Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model for Glaciated Punatshangchu Basin in Bhutan

Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices over Bhutan

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