Rain-Fed Rice Yield Fluctuation to Climatic Anomalies in Bangladesh

Ghose, Bonosri; Islam, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul; Islam, H. M. Touhidul; Hasanuzzaman, Md.; Huang, Jin; Hu, Zhenghua; Moniruzzaman, Md.; Gustave, Williamson; Karim, Masud; Ibrahim, Sobhy M.

doi:10.1007/s42106-021-00131-x

Cited by 35 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…climate variables' oscillation in the range of 2.75 to 3 year as identified in the northwestern sub-region, while a quasi-6 years fluctuation was found in the northern and northeastern regions. These findings are similar to the finding of Ghose et al (2021a). The precipitation showed a negative correlation with yield in the northern region.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…The table shows that CDYI has a notable negative association (r < -0.4) with the first two drought indicators, DD1 and DD2 (described in Table1). These are analogous with the past studies on Aus rice's response to climate change in different sub-regions Ghose et al (2021a). found a stronger association of yield with precipitation than the other climatic factors.…”

supporting

confidence: 90%

“…Three climatic regions, north, northwest, and northeast, were identified based on different Aus yield response to climate variability. This outcome is analogous to Ghose et al (2021a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

“…In recent times, Wahiduzzaman and Luo (2020) suggested a strong relationship of ENSO with precipitation and temperature over the nation. Ghose et al (2021a) recently revealed an increase in temperature by 1ºC and rainfall by 1% cuases a decrease in Aman rice yields by 33.59% and 3.37%, respectively in southwest and southeastern regions of Bangladesh.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the linkages vary for regions and seasons. However, no studies have been conducted to evaluate the effect of ENSO on crop yields in Bangladesh, except the study of Ghose et al (2021a;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rice yield responses in Bangladesh to large-scale atmospheric oscillation using multifactorial model

Ghose

Islam

Salam

et al. 2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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This paper intends to explore rice yield fluctuations to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (LACIs) in Bangladesh. The annual dataset of climate-derived yield index (CDYI), estimated using principal component analysis of Aus rice yield data of 23 districts, and five LACIs for the period 1980-2017 were used for this purpose. The key outcomes of the study were as follows: (1) three sub-regions of Bangladesh, northern, northwestern, and northeastern, showed different kinds of CDYI anomalies; (2) the CDYI time series in northern and northeastern regions exhibited a substantial 6-year fluctuation, whereas a 2.75 to 3-year fluctuation predominated the northwestern region; (3) rice yield showed the highest sensitivity of LACIs in the northern region; (4) Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and East Central Tropical Pacific SST (Nino 3.4) in July, and IOD index in March provide the best yield forecasting signals for northern, northwestern, and northeastern regions, respectively; (5) wavelet coherence study demonstrated noteworthy in-phase and out-phases coherences between key climatic variables (KCVs) and CDYI anomalies at various time-frequencies in three sub-regions; (6) the random forest (RF) model revealed the IOD as the vital contributing factor of rice yield fluctuations in the country; (6) the multi-factorial model with different LACIs and year as predictors can predict rice yield, with the mean relative error (MRE) in the range of 4.82 to 5.51% only. The generated knowledge can be used for an early assessment of rice yield and recommend policy directives to ensure food security.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

supporting

confidence: 90%

“…Three climatic regions, north, northwest, and northeast, were identified based on different Aus yield response to climate variability. This outcome is analogous to Ghose et al (2021a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rice yield responses in Bangladesh to large-scale atmospheric oscillation using multifactorial model

Ghose

Islam

Salam

et al. 2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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Future precipitation projection in Bangladesh using SimCLIM climate model: A multi‐model ensemble approach

Islam

Shahid

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Appraisal of the long-term precipitation trends and variability is crucial for sustainable water resources management. This research intended to evaluate Bangladesh's monthly, seasonal, and annual spatiotemporal rainfall variability using 40 global climate models for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Statistical downscaling climate model (SimCLIM) was used for downscaling and ensemble projection of rainfall in near (2011-2040), middle (2041-2070), and far (2071-2100) futures. Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect future rainfall trends. The results revealed a significant increasing trend in rainfall in near and middle futures for RCP4.5 and in all three future periods for RCP8.5 at all meteorological stations of Bangladesh during significant rainfall months (May-October). The results also showed a decreasing trend in rainfall in dry months (December-January) at many stations. The highest increase in rainfall was projected in June at a rate of 0.10-1.11 mmÁyear −1 for RCP4.5 and 3.34-4.98 mmÁyear −1 for RCP8.5 in different future periods. Monsoon rainfall showed the highest increase, and winter rainfall the lowest increase for all RCPs and future periods. The increase in annual precipitation over Bangladesh was projected 2.76-5.98% in three future periods for RCP4.5 and 6.98-26.

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Assessment of climate change impact on temperature extremes in a tropical region with the climate projections from CMIP6 model

2022

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Rain-Fed Rice Yield Fluctuation to Climatic Anomalies in Bangladesh

Cited by 35 publications

References 65 publications

Rice yield responses in Bangladesh to large-scale atmospheric oscillation using multifactorial model

Rice yield responses in Bangladesh to large-scale atmospheric oscillation using multifactorial model

Future precipitation projection in Bangladesh using SimCLIM climate model: A multi‐model ensemble approach

Assessment of climate change impact on temperature extremes in a tropical region with the climate projections from CMIP6 model

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