Radiomics models of contrast-enhanced computed tomography for predicting the activity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis

Abstract

Background The modified pancreatitis activity scoring system (mPASS) was proposed to assess the activity of acute pancreatitis (AP) while it doesn’t include indicators that directly reflect pathophysiology processes and imaging characteristics. Objectives To determine the threshold of admission mPASS and investigate radiomics and laboratory parameters to construct a model to predict the activity of AP. Methods AP inpatients at institution 1 were randomly divided into training and validation groups based on a 5:5 ratio. AP inpatients at Institution 2 were served as test group. The cutoff value of admission mPASS scores in predicting severe AP was selected to divide patients into high and low level of disease activity group. LASSO was used in screening features. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop radiomics model. Meaningful laboratory parameters were used to construct combined model. Results There were 234 (48 years ± 10, 155 men) and 101 (48 years ± 11, 69 men) patients in two institutions. The threshold of admission mPASS score was 112.5 in severe AP prediction. The AUC of the radiomics model was 0.79, 0.72, and 0.76 and that of the combined model incorporating rad-score and white blood cell were 0.84, 0.77, and 0.80 in three groups for activity prediction. The AUC of the combined model in predicting disease without remission was 0.74. Conclusions The threshold of admission mPASS was 112.5 in predicting severe AP. The model based on CECT radiomics has the ability to predict AP activity. Its ability to predict disease without remission is comparable to mPASS. Critical relevance statement This work is the first attempt to assess the activity of acute pancreatitis using contrast-enhanced CT radiomics and laboratory parameters. The model provides a new method to predict the activity and prognosis of AP, which could contribute to further management. Key Points Radiomics features and laboratory parameters are associated with the activity of acute pancreatitis. The combined model provides a new method to predict the activity and prognosis of AP. The ability of the combined model is comparable to the modified Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System. Graphical Abstract