Radiocontamination patterns and possible health consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power station

Abstract

The main hazard in the early phase after the accident was due to radioiodine. Doses to the thyroid were estimated separately for (i) zones of strict control, (ii) the most contaminated provinces and (iii) the whole central European region of the USSR. Distinction was made between the children under the age of 7 years at the time of the accident and the rest of the population. In the later phase the main concern is whole-body exposure to radiocaesium. Doses were calculated for the same areas and age groups as in the case of radioiodine. The following consequences were considered: thyroid malignancies, leukaemia, other types of cancer, genetic defects and teratogenic anomalies. A statistically significant excess over the spontaneous level is unlikely to be detectable for these effects. A possible exception may be thyroid disorders. The risk of health effects was greatly reduced by preventive measures taken, in particular the lifetime doses have been restricted by the establishment of a limit of 0.35 Sv.

Chapter II. Consequences of the Chernobyl Catastrophe for Public Health

“…The first official forecasts of the catastrophic health consequences of the Chernobyl meltdown noted only a limited number of additional cases of cancer over the first decades. Four years later, the same officials increased the number of foreseeable cancer cases to several hundred (Il’in et al , 1990), at a time when there were already 1,000 people suffering from Chernobyl‐engendered thyroid cancer. Twenty years after the catastrophe, the official position of the Chernobyl Forum (2006) is that about 9,000 related deaths have occurred and some 200,000 people have illnesses caused by the catastrophe.…”

“…In 1990, when the serious increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer in contaminated territories had already begun, official medical representatives from the Soviet Union indicated they expected 100 additional cases to be induced by the catastrophe's radiation (e.g., Ilyin et al , 1990). The added risk of thyroid cancer after Hiroshima and Nagasaki radiation was highest 10 to 15 years later, with cases appearing 40 to 50 years afterward (Demidchik et al , 1996).…”

Guidelines for Exposure Assessment in Health Risk Studies Following a Nuclear Reactor Accident

“…Risk projections were published within a few years of the Chernobyl accident (Anspaugh et al 1988; Ilyin et al 1990; Parmentier and Nenot 1989). Extensive collaboration between the former Soviet Union and international organizations started in 1989 and resulted in a series of epidemiologic studies focusing mostly on thyroid diseases and, to a lesser extent, on childhood cancer (Cardis and Hatch 2011).…”

2. Chernobyl's Public Health Consequences

“…Four years later, the same officials increased the number of foreseeable cancer cases to several hundred (Il'in et al, 1990), at a time when there were already 1,000 people suffering from Chernobyl-engendered thyroid cancer. Twenty years after the catastrophe, the official position of the Chernobyl Forum (2006) is that about 9,000 related deaths have occurred and some 200,000 people have illnesses caused by the catastrophe.…”