Radar Reflectivity–Derived Thunderstorm Parameters Applied to Storm Longevity Forecasting

MacKeen, P. L.; Brooks, Harold E.; Elmore, Kimberly L.

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0289:rrdtpa>2.0.co;2

Cited by 23 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…This result is consistent with MacKeen et al (1999), who find that 16 different parameters did not provide useful information on storm duration. The probabilities of a storm being either isolated rotating or isolated nonrotating, as well as linear or cluster were used as a predictive variable for this test, as well as the upper-level forcing and environmental parameters used in the logistic regression models.…”

Section: Variablesupporting

confidence: 86%

The Influence of Upper-Tropospheric Potential Vorticity on Convective Morphology

Schumann

Roebber

2010

Monthly Weather Review

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Extensive research has illuminated the roles that buoyancy and vertical wind shear have in determining convective mode. The goal of this study is to examine synoptic forcing, as measured by the form of the waves on the dynamic tropopause and the strength of the resultant temperature advection, together with the environmental variables that are currently used to differentiate storm type. Logistic regression is used to make this discrimination and provides the preliminary results. First, multicellular lines and isolated rotating cells are associated with weaker synoptic forcing. Second, where an upper-level feature is present, multicellular convection (lines and clusters combined) is favored relative to isolated storms when there is stronger synoptic forcing, the shape of the upper-level potential vorticity (PV) feature is elongated, and there is a more southerly component in the deep-layer (0-6 km) mean wind. Third, when an upper-level feature is present and the convection is multicellular, clusters are favored relative to lines when the upper wave is not cut off (i.e., a wave structure promoting advection), provided that the deep-layer shear is not oriented at an optimal angle relative to a preexisting meridional boundary (as shown by prior research). Finally, if the convection is isolated, rotating storms may be favored for a broad area of PV advection, as measured by the relative equality of the zonal and meridional axes of the advection area, suggesting the importance of broader-scale destabilization. These findings are used to formulate testable hypotheses. Future model-based experiments using PV surgery or PV regression methods are proposed to clearly elucidate the dynamics behind these relationships.

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Section: Variablesupporting

confidence: 86%

The Influence of Upper-Tropospheric Potential Vorticity on Convective Morphology

Schumann

Roebber

2010

Monthly Weather Review

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“…From analysis 1, it was found that the obtained thunderstorm climatology was a very good match with the results obtained by previous researchers for the number of thunderstorm days per year (Alexander 1935;Changnon 1988aChangnon ,b, 2001, the monthly and the diurnal distributions (Wallace 1975;Kelly et al 1985;Easterling and Robinson 1985;Johns and Hirt 1987;Changnon 1988a,b;Bentley and Mote 1998;Klimowski et al 2003), the storm duration (Ackerman and Knox 2006), the storm movement (Bentley and Mote 1998;Johns and Evans 2000;Klimowski et al 2003), the storm-track length (Bentley and Mote 1998), and the storm intensity (MacKeen et al 1999;Johns and Evans 2000).…”

Section: Methods and Validation Of The Usage Of Radar Datasupporting

confidence: 81%

Climatology of Thunderstorms for North Dakota, 2002–06

Mohee

Miller

2010

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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Radar and surface thunderstorm data in North Dakota were investigated to obtain the climatology of thunderstorms in the state. A life cycle analysis for the individual storm cells between 2002 and 2006 was carried out, and it was found that June and July were the peak months, late afternoon to early morning was the peak time for thunderstorms, the average lifetime of storm cells was 23.6 min, the average gust wind speed was 16.5 m s 21 , the average track length was 21.8 km, and the average movement speed was 16.4 m s 21 . The average movement of storm cells varied with months, and the storms moved toward the north, the northeast, and the east. It was also demonstrated that there were 19-35 thunderstorm days each year in North Dakota and that, of these, 9-14 thunderstorm days each year were associated with high speed winds. Severe thunderstorms composed 1.7% of all the thunderstorms in 2002-06. The most intense thunderstorm in North Dakota between 2002 and 2006 was associated with a 5-yr-high wind speed of 31.4 m s 21 . It was also found that the longer-lasting storms were the stronger storms.

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“…Therefore a long lasting thunderstorm produces more rainfall than a shorter one for two reasons: (1) the longest persistence; and (2) the highest average intensity. Despite the fact that it is not possible to forecast the duration of a storm on the only basis of its properties during the first stages of life [18], the results presented in Figure 3 suggest the existence of a relation between the maximum of reflectivity in the first stages of the thunderstorm life cycle and the duration of the entire convective event.…”

Section: The Storm Lifecyclementioning

confidence: 96%

“…The variation of the location of the IDs during the day is hereafter considered. To this end, the day is subdivided in four periods: night (20-04 UTC), morning (04-12 UTC), afternoon (12-15 UTC) and evening (15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20).…”

Section: The Spatial Distribution Of Ids Over the Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radar-Based Analysis of Convective Storms over Northwestern Italy

et al. 2011

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Thunderstorms may cause large damages to infrastructures and population, therefore the possible identification of the areas with the highest occurrence of these events is especially relevant. Nevertheless, few extensive studies of these phenomena with high spatial and temporal resolution have been carried out in the Alps and none of them includes North-western Italy. To analyze thunderstorm events, the data of the meteorological radar network of the regional meteorological service of Piedmont region (ARPA Piemonte) have been used in this work. The database analyzed includes all thunderstorms occurred during the warm months (April to September) of a 6-year period (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010). The tracks of each storm have been evaluated using a storm tracking algorithm. Several characteristics of the storms have been analyzed, such as the duration, the spatial and the temporal distribution, the direction and the distance travelled. Obtained results revealed several important characteristics that may be useful for nowcasting purposes providing a first attempt of radar-based climatology in the considered region.

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Radar Reflectivity–Derived Thunderstorm Parameters Applied to Storm Longevity Forecasting

Cited by 23 publications

References 9 publications

The Influence of Upper-Tropospheric Potential Vorticity on Convective Morphology

The Influence of Upper-Tropospheric Potential Vorticity on Convective Morphology

Climatology of Thunderstorms for North Dakota, 2002–06

Radar-Based Analysis of Convective Storms over Northwestern Italy

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