Quo Vadis, Orthotrichum pulchellum? A Journey of Epiphytic Moss across the European Continent

Abstract

Orthotrichum pulchellum is a species of epiphytic moss in which a significant expansion from the oceanic part of Europe to the east of the continent has been observed in the recent two decades. The improvement in air quality in Central and Eastern Europe, but also climate change, probably plays a role in this. This study shows what direction of its spreading we can expect in the future. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a widespread method to find out species niches in environmental and geographical space, which allows us to highlight areas that have a higher probability of occurrences of the studied species, based on identifying similar environmental conditions to those already known. We also made predictions for different future scenarios (CMIP5 climatology datasets for the years 2041–2060). Because we were not able to distinguish between historical and newly settled areas, and so, had to use some of the traditional approaches when modeling invasive species, we proposed to use niche clusters based on environmental layers to split the data of all known occurrences and make models separately for each cluster. This approach seems reasonable from the ecological species point of view because using all the morphologically same samples could be misleading. Altogether, 2712 samples were used from three separate niche clusters. For building the models, the Maxent algorithm was used as a well-tested, well-accepted, and commonly used method.

Too Warm and Too Dry—Decline and Threat of the Subarctic-Subalpine Liverwort Hygrobiella laxifolia in a Low Mountain Range in Central Europe under the Conditions of Climate Change

“…Bryophytes respond rapidly and sensitively to global warming [1,2], which has been documented by the spread of thermophilic species [3,4]. Thus, a decline in montane bryophyte species is expected due to global warming, although there have been limited studies on such species to date.…”

From Bioclimatic Envelopes to Machine Learning: A Journey Through the History, Present, and Future of Species Distribution Modeling With Practical Tips for Use and Notes to Bryophytes

“…We have many applications in ecology and conservation for SDMs, including identifying areas of high conservation value [10], understanding the potential impacts of environmental change on biodiversity [11], or predicting the spread of invasive species [12]. Among others, SDMs can also be used to inform management decisions [13], such as selecting sites for protected areas [14] or planning for species reintroductions [15].…”

Bryophytes in a Changing World: Understanding Distribution Patterns, Risks, and Conservation

“…We have many applications in ecology and conservation for SDMs, including identifying areas of high conservation value [8], understanding the potential impacts of environmental change on biodiversity [9], or predicting the spread of invasive species [10]. Among others, SDMs can also be used to inform management decisions [11], such as selecting sites for protected areas [12] or planning for species reintroductions [13].…”