Quenching the thirst of rapidly growing and water-insecure cities in sub-Saharan Africa

Niasse, Madiodio; Varis, Olli

doi:10.4324/9781003179498-22

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…On the other hand, the share of people living in urban areas is expected to grow, especially in lower income regions, such as Africa 42 . With the global average temperatures continuing to rise, impoverished urban areas are particularly vulnerable to the impact of extreme climate events, given lower capacity to manage population growth and to provide basic services and infrastructure 43 . Increased climatic hazards such as heatwaves, water stress, floods and droughts will increase the vulnerability of people living in the outskirts of poor urban agglomerates, which are already the predominant destinations for migrants, particularly in Africa 44 .…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

World’s human migration patterns in 2000–2019 unveiled by high-resolution data

Niva,

Horton,

Virkki

et al. 2023

Nat Hum Behav

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Despite being a topical issue in public debate and on the political agenda for many countries, a global-scale, high-resolution quantification of migration and its major drivers for the recent decades remained missing. We created a global dataset of annual net migration between 2000 and 2019 (~10 km grid, covering the areas of 216 countries or sovereign states), based on reported and downscaled subnational birth (2,555 administrative units) and death (2,067 administrative units) rates. We show that, globally, around 50% of the world’s urban population lived in areas where migration accelerated urban population growth, while a third of the global population lived in provinces where rural areas experienced positive net migration. Finally, we show that, globally, socioeconomic factors are more strongly associated with migration patterns than climatic factors. While our method is dependent on census data, incurring notable uncertainties in regions where census data coverage or quality is low, we were able to capture migration patterns not only between but also within countries, as well as by socioeconomic and geophysical zonings. Our results highlight the importance of subnational analysis of migration—a necessity for policy design, international cooperation and shared responsibility for managing internal and international migration.

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Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

World’s human migration patterns in 2000–2019 unveiled by high-resolution data

Niva,

Horton,

Virkki

et al. 2023

Nat Hum Behav

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…On the other hand, the share of people living in urban areas is expected to grow, especially in lower income regions, such as Africa (39). With the global average temperatures continuing to rise, impoverished urban areas are particularly vulnerable to the impact of extreme climate events given lower capacity to manage population growth and to provide basic services and infrastructure (40). Increased climatic risks like heatwaves, water stress, floods, and droughts will increase the vulnerability of people living in the outskirts of poor urban agglomerates, which are already now the predominant destinations for migrants, particularly in Africa (41).…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

World's human migration patterns in 2000-2019 unveiled by high-resolution data

Niva

Horton

Heino

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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Despite being a top concern on global agenda, global-scale, high resolution quantification of net-migration and its major drivers, is still missing for recent decades. We created a global dataset of annual net-migration between 2000–2019 (~ 10km grid), based on reported and here-downscaled sub-national birth and death ratios. We show that globally, internal migration has increased rapidly, dominating over international migration. Around 50% of world’s urban population lived in urban areas where migration accelerated urban population growth, while a third of global population lived in provinces where rural areas experienced positive net-migration. Finally, we show that socio-economic factors play a more important role than climatic ones to explain the migration patterns globally. By capturing migration patterns not only between but also within countries, socio-economic and geophysical zonings, our study highlights the importance of sub-national analysis of migration – a necessity for policy design, international cooperation and shared responsibility for managing internal and international migration.

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“…While the effects of drought on farming are readily apparent, urban droughts are likely to become more frequent (Hoekstra et al 2018;Zhang et al 2019). In several locations around the world, cities have run out of water, relying on trucked supplies to eke out existence during dry seasons (Niasse and Varis 2020). To what extent periodic water shortages have influenced mobility emerges as a research gap based on the clustering of article topics.…”

Section: Research Gapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Topic modelling the mobility response to heat and drought

2023

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We conducted a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed full text articles on the nexus between human mobility and drought or heat published between 2001 and 2021, inclusive. We identified 387 relevant articles, all of which were analysed descriptively using a dictionary-based approach and by using an unsupervised machine learning–based Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model. Most articles were in response to droughts (71%), but heat and extreme temperature became more prominent after 2015. The drought-related literature focuses geographically on African and Southern Asian countries, while heat-related research has mainly been conducted in developed countries (mostly in the USA and Australia). For both hazards, European countries are under-represented. The LDA model identified 46 topics which were clustered into five major themes. One cluster (14% of all articles) included literature on heat-related mobility, mostly data-driven models, including amenity migration. The other four clusters included literature on drought, primarily on farming societies and the agricultural sector with three of those clusters making up 63% of all articles, with the common overarching focus on climate migration and food security. One of the four drought clusters focused on social dysfunction in relation to droughts. A sentiment analysis showed articles focusing on voluntary mobility as part of adaptation to drought and heat were more positive than articles focusing on migration triggered by droughts and heat. Based on the topics and the article characterisation, we identified various research gaps, including migration in relation to urban droughts, heat in farming societies and in urban societies of developing countries, planned retreat from hot to cooler places, and the inability or barriers to doing so. More research is also needed to understand the compound effect of drought and heat, and the social and psychological processes that lead to a mobility decision.

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Quenching the thirst of rapidly growing and water-insecure cities in sub-Saharan Africa

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

World’s human migration patterns in 2000–2019 unveiled by high-resolution data

World’s human migration patterns in 2000–2019 unveiled by high-resolution data

World's human migration patterns in 2000-2019 unveiled by high-resolution data

Topic modelling the mobility response to heat and drought

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