Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2023

Abstract

In this Note, we provide estimates of public acute hospital inpatient bed requirements in Ireland in 2023, based on earlier ESRI research published by Keegan et al. (2018), the Department of Health's Health Service Capacity Review (2018) and the National Development Plan (2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022)(2023)(2024)(2025)(2026)(2027). Each of these analyses projected hospital bed capacity requirements in Ireland based on a variety of projection scenarios. The Note finds that while absolute, and per capita, public acute hospital inpatient bed capacity has increased in recent years, large bed capacity deficits remain. Focusing on scenarios that assume an 85 per cent occupancy rate, we estimate that in 2023 there may be a bed capacity deficit of approximately 1,000 inpatient beds in public acute hospitals. This bed capacity deficit is likely a key contributor to recent overcrowding issues experienced in public acute hospitals. In addition to the deficit that currently exists in the system, over 300 additional inpatient beds are required per annum to keep up with demand pressures arising from an increasing and ageing population.

Cliff edges in the Irish tax-benefit system

“…The removal or reduction of such kinks, cliff edges in particular, can therefore avoid possible economic distortions and improve work incentives. The issue of work incentives is of particular importance currently, with Ireland's labour market characterised by low unemployment numbers and relatively high vacancy levels (see McQuinn et al, 2023). The proposed reforms of the Pay-Related Social Insurance (PRSI) and Universal Social Charge (USC) systems highlight the fact that such distortions can be removed in a revenue neutral manner while protecting those on lower incomes.…”