Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

Abstract

Abstract:We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.Keywords: quantum probability; quantum decision making; behavioral probability; interference and coherence; irrationality measure; lotteries GoalsQuantum theory is one of the most fascinating and successful constructs in the intellectual history of mankind. It applies to light and matter, from the smallest scales so far explored, up to mesoscopic scales. It is also a necessary ingredient for understanding the evolution of the universe. It has given rise to an impressive number of new technologies. Additionally, in recent years, it has been applied to several branches of science, which have previously been analyzed by classical means, such as quantum information processing and quantum computing [1][2][3] and quantum games [4][5][6][7].Our goal here is to demonstrate that the applicability of quantum theory can be extended in one more direction, to the theory of decision making, thus generalizing classical utility theory. This generalization allows us to characterize the behavior of real decision makers, who, when making decisions, evaluate not only the utility of the given prospects, but also are influenced by their respective attractiveness. We show that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers can be modeled by quantum probabilities.We are perfectly aware that, in the philosophical interpretation of quantum theory, there are yet a number of unsettled problems. These have triggered active discussions that started with Einstein's

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