Quantitative risk assessment of the risks associated with the importation of pigs to abattoirs

Abstract

This paper presents a quantitative risk assessment method based on the portrayal of risks using scenario trees, the translation of evidence into probability curves and the aggregation of scenarios using Latin Hypercube simulation. An example of a quantitative risk assessment on the importation of swine for slaughter illustrates the interpretation of evidence of two swine disease risks:Pseudorabies (Aujeszky's disease) and brucellosis.