Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat meats in Australia

Ross, Tom; Rasmussen, S.; Fazil, Aamir; Paoli, Greg; Sumner, John

doi:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2009.02.007

Cited by 76 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…This is consistent with Ross et al [11] and is attributed to differences in consumer storage and reheating practices. Of delicatessen meats, fewer cases were consistently estimated for ham.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Results were determined by Monte Carlo simulations using Latin Hypercube Sampling with 100 000 iterations herein given differences in data derivation for the provinces and territories. Generally, previous listeriosis risk assessments have summed national risk factor prevalence and used adjusted dose-response models to account for two subpopulations; the healthy and the vulnerable [11,19]. This model builds on this approach by incorporating region-specific demographic data for several risk factors, accounting (albeit imperfectly) for comorbidities, and providing estimates of risk for ten vulnerable subpopulations alongside the general population.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The general model was obtained from Ross et al [11], which was based on an exponential model [29]. Eleven dose-response models are used, each with previously derived subpopulation-specific distributions of R parameters (Table 2) [10].…”

Section: Hazard Characterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dose-response models that incorporate L. monocytogenes strain variability have recently been developed for selected populations vulnerable to listeriosis [10], and could be integrated with demographic information to derive population-level estimates of risk. Ross et al [11] have estimated the prevalence of several at-risk subpopulations in Australia, but similar estimates have not yet been compiled for Canada.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparing listeriosis risks in at-risk populations using a user-friendly quantitative microbial risk assessment tool and epidemiological data

et al. 2016

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SUMMARYAlthough infection by the pathogenic bacterium Listeria monocytogenes is relatively rare, consequences can be severe, with a high case-fatality rate in vulnerable populations. A quantitative, probabilistic risk assessment tool was developed to compare estimates of the number of invasive listeriosis cases in vulnerable Canadian subpopulations given consumption of contaminated ready-toeat delicatessen meats and hot dogs, under various user-defined scenarios. The model incorporates variability and uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulation. Processes considered within the model include cross-contamination, growth, risk factor prevalence, subpopulation susceptibilities, and thermal inactivation. Hypothetical contamination events were simulated. Results demonstrated varying risk depending on the consumer risk factors and implicated product (turkey delicatessen meat without growth inhibitors ranked highest for this scenario). The majority (80%) of listeriosis cases were predicted in at-risk subpopulations comprising only 20% of the total Canadian population, with the greatest number of predicted cases in the subpopulation with dialysis and/or liver disease. This tool can be used to simulate conditions and outcomes under different scenarios, such as a contamination event and/or outbreak, to inform public health interventions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hazard Characterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparing listeriosis risks in at-risk populations using a user-friendly quantitative microbial risk assessment tool and epidemiological data

et al. 2016

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“…Some authors (Ross et al, 2009;FDA and Health Canada, 2012) agree on the fact that the model of FDA/FSIS (2003) varies with every iteration of the risk assessment and is neither readily reproduced nor readily defined. On the other hand, the FAO/WHO (2004b) approach leads to estimates consistent with other estimates of the "r" value when differences in assumptions are accounted for (e.g., number of RTE foods contributing to the exposure, extent of growth between retail and consumption etc.)…”

Section: Discussion and Final Selection Of The Dose-response Models Omentioning

confidence: 99%

Closing gaps for performing a risk assessment on Listeria monocytogenes in ready‐to‐eat (RTE) foods: activity 2, a quantitative risk characterization on L. monocytogenes in RTE foods; starting from the retail stage

Pérez‐Rodríguez

Carrasco

Bover‐Cid

et al. 2017

EFSA Supporting Publications

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A quantitative risk characterization of Listeria monocytogenes in various ready-to-eat (RTE) food categories (heat-treated meat; smoked and gravad fish; and soft and semi-soft cheeses) in the European Union (EU) was performed; starting from the retail stage. For prevalence and concentration, data from the EU-wide baseline survey was complemented with EU monitoring data and data from other sources. Food serving size and the number of servings per year were estimated from the European food consumption database. Demographical data from Eurostat were also used. Growth of L. monocytogenes considering interaction with lactic acid bacteria was modelled from retail to consumption using temperature-time profiles during transport and storage. This information was combined with the Pouillot dose-response models to estimate the number of listeriosis cases per 10 6 servings as well as the annual number of listeriosis cases in the EU associated with the consumption of the RTE foods. The total number of cases was estimated as 2,318 (95 confidence interval (CI): 1,450-3,612). Cooked meat and sausage presented most cases (median of 863 and 541, respectively). Sliced pâté packaged in normal atmosphere presented the highest listeriosis risk per million servings. With respect to the estimation of the total number of cases per population group, considering each food subcategory separately, the higher risk population group corresponded to elderly, followed, in most cases, by pregnant and healthy, with the exceptions of cooked meat and hot smoked fish in which pregnant presented higher risk than elderly. In the light of results, it seems necessary that educative programs and specific recommendations are specially oriented the most susceptible population groups so as to mitigate the risk. Uncertainty sources for some variables such as initial MAY prevalence should be further elucidated as well as variability in Listeria growth when types of product and populations are compared.

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Safety of Meat and Meat Products in the Twenty‐first Century

Jenson

Vanderlinde²,

Langbridge³

et al. 2014

Practical Food Safety

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Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat meats in Australia

Cited by 76 publications

References 30 publications

Comparing listeriosis risks in at-risk populations using a user-friendly quantitative microbial risk assessment tool and epidemiological data

Comparing listeriosis risks in at-risk populations using a user-friendly quantitative microbial risk assessment tool and epidemiological data

Closing gaps for performing a risk assessment on Listeria monocytogenes in ready‐to‐eat (RTE) foods: activity 2, a quantitative risk characterization on L. monocytogenes in RTE foods; starting from the retail stage

Safety of Meat and Meat Products in the Twenty‐first Century

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