Quantitative risk assessment of gas leakage and explosion accident consequences inside residential buildings

Song, Bin; Jiao, Wenling; Cen, Kang; Tian, Xiaolin; Zhang, Hanyue; Lu, Weina

doi:10.1016/j.engfailanal.2021.105257

Cited by 28 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The equation () for the Probit value

P_{e}

of overpressure is as follows 35 :

P_{e} goodbreak= goodbreak- 77.1 goodbreak+ 6.91 \ln normalΔ P_{r}

where

∆ P_{r}

is the overpressure value (Pa).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of liquid ammonia tanks based on Bayesian network and Probit model

Zhang,

Wang,

Chen

et al. 2023

Process Safety Progress

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This paper presents a quantitative risk assessment method to predict the potential risks of liquid ammonia tanks. The method combines probabilistic prediction and consequence assessment: the former is predicted by Bayesian networks derived from bow‐tie mapping, in which the conditional probabilities are determined by analytic hierarchy process, the latter is calculated based on numerical simulation of accident consequences and Probit probability model. The application results show that the method can be used for quantitative risk assessment of liquid ammonia storage tank, and the Bayesian network model is efficient and stable, which can realize risk prediction, accident causes analysis and risk mitigation analysis. Human errors during production or maintenance and corrosion are the main causes of liquid ammonia leakage. Toxicity has the greatest effect on the risk of liquid ammonia tanks. Risk mitigation measures can significantly reduce individual risk and societal risk. The obtained results provide meaningful guidance for the prevention and risk mitigation strategies of liquid ammonia leakage accidents, so as to improve the safety level of liquid ammonia during storage.

show abstract

“…The equation () for the Probit value

P_{e}

of overpressure is as follows 35 :

P_{e} goodbreak= goodbreak- 77.1 goodbreak+ 6.91 \ln normalΔ P_{r}

where

∆ P_{r}

is the overpressure value (Pa).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of liquid ammonia tanks based on Bayesian network and Probit model

Zhang,

Wang,

Chen

et al. 2023

Process Safety Progress

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This method involves analyzing gas dispersion and establishing an explosion simulation model to predict the consequences of an explosion in an inhomogeneous gas cloud. Quantitatively describing the severity of the consequences of the explosion in different areas of a residence helps identify hazardous areas [11]. Using FLACS software, a simulation was conducted in a 200 m long tunnel to study the overpressure distribution and flame changes resulting from the explosion of a methane-hydrogen gas mixture.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation and Experimental Verification of Dispersion and Explosion of Hydrogen–Methane Mixture in a Domestic Kitchen

Xu,

Deng,

Huang

et al. 2024

Energies

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Hydrogen is a carbon-free energy source that can be obtained from various sources. The blending of hydrogen represents a transitional phase in the shift from natural gas systems to hydrogen-based systems. However, concerns about the safety implications of introducing hydrogen have led to extensive discussions. This paper utilizes Fluent 17.0 numerical simulation software to simulate the leakage of hydrogen-blended natural gas in a closed domestic kitchen and analyze the concentration distribution and its variation pattern after a leakage. An experimental platform is set up, and a mixture of nitrogen and helium gas is used as a substitute for hydrogen-blended natural gas for the simulations and experiments. The simulation results demonstrate that the leaked gas spreads and accumulates towards the top of the space, gradually filling the entire area as the leak persists. As the hydrogen content in the leaked gas increases, the dispersion capacity of the gas in the confined space also increases. Furthermore, as the flow rate of the leaked gas increases, the average concentration of the leaked gas rises, and the gas stratification in the confined kitchen diminishes. The concentration distribution observed in the experiments aligns with the simulation results. After establishing the feasibility conditions of the model, the dispersion of the hydrogen-blended natural gas in the kitchen is further simulated. The results suggest that blending hydrogen into the gas enhances the dispersion of the gas after a leak, leading to a wider distribution within the kitchen and an increased risk in the event of a leak. Additionally, this paper employs the CASD module of FLACS 11.0 software to construct a three-dimensional geometric model of the domestic kitchen for simulation studies on the explosion of hydrogen-blended natural gas in a confined space. By adjusting the hydrogen ratio in the combustible gases present in the space and examining the variations in hydrogen concentration and external conditions, such as opening or closing the door, the influence on parameters including the peak explosion pressure, explosion overpressure, explosion flame temperature, and explosion response time are examined. Furthermore, the extent of the explosion area is determined, and the effect of hydrogen on the blast is clarified.

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“…The leakage and diffusion of hydrogen, methane, and natural gas using the CFD technique and the obtained hazardous gas concentration distribution were simulated 23–25 . Song et al 26 established a quantitative risk analysis method for gas leakage and explosion accidents in residential buildings based on the probit model, and investigated the effects of vent area ratio and broken pressure of glasses. Fiates and Vianna 27 adopted a modified solver to model the gas cloud volume in the OpenFOAM software under the same scenario as described above and analyzed five leakage directions and four wind directions at a typical industrial site, and the obtained simulation results were consistent with CFD results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consequence analysis of CNG leakage at joint refueling and charging stations

Luo

Liu

et al. 2023

Process Safety Progress

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The number of new‐energy vehicles is steadily increasing worldwide, and joint refueling and charging stations will be increasingly constructed and developed in China. A CNG leakage at joint stations can lead to superimposed consequences, including fire (flash fire, pool fire, jet fire), explosion, and release of toxic and hazardous gases. Based on FLACS and SAFETI, the impact of leakage aperture and wind direction on CNG leakage diffusion are analyzed by modeling a joint refueling and charging station in Shaanxi, China. The safe distance between charging piles and leakage points is investigated in the worst case scenario. The superimposed consequences of leakage in joint stations under different scenarios are analyzed, and the individual risk is analyzed at stations. This study shows that the larger the leakage aperture, the larger the CNG leakage dispersion range under the same wind directions and wind speeds, and the higher the wind speed, the more volatile the gas under the same leakage apertures. The safety distance of the charging pile should reach at least 37 and 40 m considering leaks in the tanker and gas storage well, respectively. The impact range of superimposed consequences shows the descending order of jet fire > flash fire > pool fire.

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Quantitative risk assessment of gas leakage and explosion accident consequences inside residential buildings

Cited by 28 publications

References 24 publications

Risk assessment of liquid ammonia tanks based on Bayesian network and Probit model

Risk assessment of liquid ammonia tanks based on Bayesian network and Probit model

Simulation and Experimental Verification of Dispersion and Explosion of Hydrogen–Methane Mixture in a Domestic Kitchen

Consequence analysis of CNG leakage at joint refueling and charging stations

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