Quantitative risk assessment for ammonia ship‐to‐ship bunkering based on Bayesian network

Abstract

The maritime industry is getting prepared for using ammonia as a fuel to meet the decarbonization goal. However, ammonia is toxic, corrosive, and flammable, which poses specific safety challenges during bunkering compared with conventional fuels.The corrosion can be prevented by selecting suitable materials. However, the impact of toxic gas dispersion and fire has high uncertainties, thus risk assessment should be conducted. Currently, there are insufficient risk assessment guidelines for ammonia bunkering available. Therefore, this paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) based quantitative risk assessment framework to investigate the potential risks of ammonia in ship-to-ship bunkering considering the toxicity and flammability. The study validates the utility of the proposed framework and demonstrates the BN as an efficient model in performing the probabilities calculations and flexible in conducting causal diagnosis. The results show that toxicity has the greatest impact on the risks of ammonia bunkering compared with flammability. The main innovation of this work is realizing the efficient quantification of risks for ammonia ship-to-ship bunkering by using the BN.

Risk assessment of liquid ammonia tanks based on Bayesian network and Probit model

“…When a person is not in the flame, the probability of death is P = 1 if the thermal radiation intensity exceeds 35KW/m 2 . If the thermal radiation intensity is <35 KW/m 2 , the equation ( 8) for the Probit value P e is as follows 20 :…”

“…At present, risk assessment for ammonia is mainly focused on the assessment of consequences. Fan et al proposed a quantitative risk assessment framework‐based BN to investigate the potential risks of ammonia in ship‐to‐ship bunkering considering the toxicity and flammability 20 . Luo et al used RAST software to evaluate the release of ammonia 21 .…”

“…Fan et al proposed a quantitative risk assessment framework-based BN to investigate the potential risks of ammonia in ship-to-ship bunkering considering the toxicity and flammability. 20 Luo et al used RAST software to evaluate the release of ammonia. 21 Rathinam et al analyzed the resilience of the ammonia storage area using the Resilience-based Integrated Process System Hazard Analysis and statistically validated using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA).…”

Risk assessment of LNG bunkering vessel operation based on formal safety assessment method

“…According to the statistics of the classification society and maritime departments, 25,[36][37][38] the fire, explosion, and other accidents of LNG carriers and LNG bunkering vessels in the bunkering process have caused huge economic damage and casualties. For LNG bunkering vessels, cargo maintenance systems and LNG bunkering systems are expensive.…”

“…the interaction of LNG bunkering and SIMOPs may impact safety and/or the environment, and it is also an important research direction for the safety of LNG bunkering vessels. [25][26][27] In summary, scholars and relevant institutions have never stopped studying the risk assessment of LNG as a new fuel in the field of marine transportation and have made certain research achievements and progress. But now, only a limited number of research studies addressed the safety analysis and design enhancement of LNG fuel systems.…”